Random Thoughts: Preparing For the Next Leg
By Todd Harrison Sep 05, 2008 1:01 pm
The end-user will continue to struggle as the credit crisis waffles from Wall Street to Main Street.
- Jeezums! I feel like a moth in a light bulb factory today--so much to do, so little time!
- Then it again, it could be worse!
- Pepe Depew's insanely talented 5 Things inspired my morning missive.
- The semis stand out as green beans in the Red Sea.
- Textbook technical analysis dictates that the retest of a breakdown or breakout is the optimal spot to initiate risk.
- If that proves true, SOX 330 is nice and tight defined risk for Boo.
- Isn't this like saying "Gee honey, we haven't hit traffic the entire trip!"
- Other levels of lore? BKX 60, Mon Frere. See it all the way back to 2002.
- I'll tell ya, Sisyphus had nothing on my inbox.
- As discussed , I've got a pairs trade on with consumer non-durables on one side (General Mills (GIS), Coca Cola (KO)) and retail on the other (Wal-Mart (WMT), Sears Holding (SHLD)).
- The thesis is that the commodity meltage lowered input costs for the non-durables that won't be passed through to the consumer, improving margins, while the end-user will continue to struggle as the credit crisis waffles from Wall Street to Main Street.
- You know what else continues to continue? A massive disconnect between credit and equity. I'll continue to harp on it because it's the greatest story never told by the mainstream media.
- Oh, they'll cover it, but as an after-the-fact explanation rather and through the lens of proactive preparedness.
- I've been trading around a small USO call position and, for the last three days, have bought the opening and pared into the close. While my net P&L is marginally lower, "trading around" the position has allowed me to effectively operate as I play for a Snapper 1) into par ($100) the first time and 2) with an eye towards the forming storms on the horizon.
- My big picture thesis is deflation, mind you, I'm simply playing the path rather than the destination.
- T-Minus six days until THAT day, which is my own personal transition to a new year.
- So what are we gonna do about it? Celebrate life, love, friendship and each other with a post-close MVHQ Happy Hour. The purpose of the journey is the journey itself and what a journey it's been!
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