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Random Thoughts: Countrywide, Wal-Mart...


As Wal-Mart is the defacto proxy of the consumer, we should note the boat as it turns the tide.

  • As the reaction to news is more important than the news itself, please note the paltry twenty-four cent lift in Intel on the heels of them upping revenue guidance. In different times and different tapes, this woulda been a cause célèbre.

  • Speaking of which, and as Coops De Ville suggested earlier, the central banks poured alotta magic potion into the minxy mix and the fact that we haven't seen more "oohs!" and "aahs!" can't be a comforting thought.

  • Look at me, I'm CFC? Yeah, we see you---trading well below the $18 convert price and off six percent on the session. We noted this as one of the more important levels in our midst and it continues to continue (despite the lack of coverage in the mainstream media).

  • In Tellsville, things have gotten fugly in a hurry as internals are 3:1 negative, the homies are getting smoked like a Philly Blunt, energy is an oxymoron, and the semis can't hold the catalyst.

  • I'm light and lighter exposure (not weight) wise and I'm a'ight with that as I'll be out-of-pocket from Thursday through Tuesday.

  • Note the dollar, which is flirting with multi-year support at DXY 80 (again).

  • I punted my S&P puts on Friday as I wanted to take a deep breath and a step back. The "easy" trade may be to fade (read: sell) the "surprise" cut but that likely won't be triggered unless we trade lower (hence, the path of maximum frustration may be lower sans cut).

  • Remember, as we discussed Friday, the Fed only has so many bullets and the last one will be pointed at itself.

  • I saw Spamalot on Saturday night and thought it was fantastic. I don't go to the theater nearly enough (for living in NYC) but aim to change that as Young Frankenstein and A Bronx Tale make their way to Broadway.

  • Sam's Club? Yeah, if we're talking about a baby seal! Note the Wal-Mart (WMT) price action as it flirts with levels unseen since the turn of the century.

  • Why does this matter? One of the sharpest tools in the Minyanville shed--a gentleman who, traditionally bullish, runs one of the most successful multi-billion dollar hedge funds (and is having a stellar year), opined last month that "It's all about spillage-if the consumer melts we're toast. If they hang in, we end the year up 10% higher from here."

  • As Wal-Mart is the defacto proxy of the consumer, we should note the boat as it turns the tide.

  • I just offered my team a proactive apology as I seem to get a bit edgy each time this anniversary rolls around. I know the goal is to use the annual recurrence of 9/11 to remember the important stuff and trust me, I'm trying to get there.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know…

    • How can ruggeleh and arugula can be so close yet so different?

    • Are the bulls waiting for the cut (to save them) while the bears are waiting for the cut (to short into)?

    • Thereby paving the path of maximum frustration lower sans cut?

    • How do you make Detroit look like a good football team? (Play the Raiders.)

    • But who won the paper trading championship?

    • Is Goldman screaming "when this tape turns, I'm gonna lead the upside speed?"

    • Are we there yet?

    • Is Starbux there nyet?

    • Y'all see the 8% jig in the volatility index (VXO)

    • Is it sell on Rosh Hashanah and buy on Yom Kippur or the other way around?


No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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