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Random Thoughts: Countrywide, Wal-Mart...


As Wal-Mart is the defacto proxy of the consumer, we should note the boat as it turns the tide.

  • As the reaction to news is more important than the news itself, please note the paltry twenty-four cent lift in Intel on the heels of them upping revenue guidance. In different times and different tapes, this woulda been a cause célèbre.

  • Speaking of which, and as Coops De Ville suggested earlier, the central banks poured alotta magic potion into the minxy mix and the fact that we haven't seen more "oohs!" and "aahs!" can't be a comforting thought.

  • Look at me, I'm CFC? Yeah, we see you---trading well below the $18 convert price and off six percent on the session. We noted this as one of the more important levels in our midst and it continues to continue (despite the lack of coverage in the mainstream media).

  • In Tellsville, things have gotten fugly in a hurry as internals are 3:1 negative, the homies are getting smoked like a Philly Blunt, energy is an oxymoron, and the semis can't hold the catalyst.

  • I'm light and lighter exposure (not weight) wise and I'm a'ight with that as I'll be out-of-pocket from Thursday through Tuesday.

  • Note the dollar, which is flirting with multi-year support at DXY 80 (again).

  • I punted my S&P puts on Friday as I wanted to take a deep breath and a step back. The "easy" trade may be to fade (read: sell) the "surprise" cut but that likely won't be triggered unless we trade lower (hence, the path of maximum frustration may be lower sans cut).

  • Remember, as we discussed Friday, the Fed only has so many bullets and the last one will be pointed at itself.

  • I saw Spamalot on Saturday night and thought it was fantastic. I don't go to the theater nearly enough (for living in NYC) but aim to change that as Young Frankenstein and A Bronx Tale make their way to Broadway.

  • Sam's Club? Yeah, if we're talking about a baby seal! Note the Wal-Mart (WMT) price action as it flirts with levels unseen since the turn of the century.

  • Why does this matter? One of the sharpest tools in the Minyanville shed--a gentleman who, traditionally bullish, runs one of the most successful multi-billion dollar hedge funds (and is having a stellar year), opined last month that "It's all about spillage-if the consumer melts we're toast. If they hang in, we end the year up 10% higher from here."

  • As Wal-Mart is the defacto proxy of the consumer, we should note the boat as it turns the tide.

  • I just offered my team a proactive apology as I seem to get a bit edgy each time this anniversary rolls around. I know the goal is to use the annual recurrence of 9/11 to remember the important stuff and trust me, I'm trying to get there.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know…

    • How can ruggeleh and arugula can be so close yet so different?

    • Are the bulls waiting for the cut (to save them) while the bears are waiting for the cut (to short into)?

    • Thereby paving the path of maximum frustration lower sans cut?

    • How do you make Detroit look like a good football team? (Play the Raiders.)

    • But who won the paper trading championship?

    • Is Goldman screaming "when this tape turns, I'm gonna lead the upside speed?"

    • Are we there yet?

    • Is Starbux there nyet?

    • Y'all see the 8% jig in the volatility index (VXO)

    • Is it sell on Rosh Hashanah and buy on Yom Kippur or the other way around?


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