Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Take a Dip
Your daily Buzz & Banter highlights...
What's Shakin' Bacon? - Todd Harrison - 3:49 PM
That sizzle doesn't smell like Oscar Mayer and it doesn't look like Ren McCormack (watch that attitude boy!) And, despite my fried green nature after seven (and in front of three) meetings, it's not my brain. It's the piggies--the pork--the financials that lead the poke we're all watching so carefully.
A few key closing levels to monitor include BKX 104.30 (latest low) and BKX 101.70 (ripcord support). And if you wanna step into the bull costume, you could point to the XBD chart, which is currently tracing out three higher lows. A little something for everyone--and every Critter--as we drag our arse across the finish line.
As discussed and so you know, I have pared partial puts (say that three times fast) against my adds yesterday and consistent with "trading around" a short-side bias. I'm not getting uppity--this tape is the anti-hubris--I'm just sharing my process (in real-time) with hope that it adds value to yours.
Peace Minyans---and a mindful night!
Bubble Comparison Update - Bennet Sedacca 1:51 PM
I have said before that the bubble in the S&P Super Composite Homebuilder Index mirrored the move in the Nikkei and Naz (both pre-bubble and post-bubble). Thankfully, that relationship saved me from getting run over in the most recent credit rout (which is not over, in my opinion).
So what now? I have updated the bubble comparison chart below to add point 1 (the peak), point 2 (the unsuccessful retest of the high) and point 3, the low. How far down? Well, usually busted bubbles drop 80-90% from the high, so don't be surprised if homies get carved in half again from here.
Click here to enlarge.
Oh, and the chart, on the right? China. If that is point 1, watch out.
Some Special Situations To Watch - Sean Udall - 12:31 PM
Finisar (FNSR): More to come on this name later, however, the large selling from a slightly poor quarter is an opportunity for aggressive traders. I'm not surprised by the near 20% sell-off in the shares but I also would not be surprised to see FNSR regain most of this slide within a few weeks. I added FNSR today and also added it to my list of stocks for a bandwidth constrained world.
Blackstone (BX): Plagued by tax and Fed uncertainty, the stock continues to trend lower. It's hard to tell when the selling pressure will end here. However, the upside leverage to any good news at this point could be enormous. My impression is that BX has become a favorite finance short on weak days.
Marvell Technology Group (MRVL): The stock continues to trade well on poor market days. The Apple (AAPL) event today and news following could be a positive catalyst for it.
Positions in FNSR, BX, MRVL, AAPL.
Financial Security in Security? - Ryan Krueger - 8:50 AM
What a perfect day to be in NYC... it's so nice outside I almost didn't mind the taxi-strike-induced nice walk I just had. Even the garbage seems fresher.
I'm at Citigroup's (C) Technology Conference, arguably its best show of the year with a star-studded lineup. After half a day I can safely say the all-time indoor record has been broken for number of ways to use "virtualization" in a sentence. I continue to hold tight to a large position in EMC (EMC) whose stake in VMWare (VMW) has been buzzed about often and keeps looking better from my perch.
The other couple of themes that seem threaded through most of the thoughts here is security followed by security in terms of importance. Understanding this business is critical as budgets get tightened, especially in the Financial Services industry (Citi's own CIO spoke about its).
Don't forget that as great as technology is, somebody is needed to buy this stuff and the notion that Technology is immune to an economic slowdown is off-base from where I sit. I think it's critical to understand which projects are off the table in terms of cutbacks. I believe security not only tops that list but is stealing budget dollars from others.
Prof. Katz has written about the security business and his posts on MV are better than any technology conference you could attend. I have the great fortune of knowing firsthand.
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