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Doin' It Bloggystyle: Volatility, Market Relationships and Barry Bonds, 90210


Minyanville brings together the best of what they're saying "out there" about the topics we're talking about right here.


Long time, no Bloggystyle. I give a hat tip to Abnormal Returns for doing this most every day. Here are a couple long form and a couple short form:

Dr Brett on: How Markets and Intermarket Relationships Have Changed Since Mid-2007:

"One of the great dividing points between experienced, successful market participants and amateurs is that the former realize that markets are continuously changing. They make active attempts to identify and adapt to these changes. Amateurs look for fixed patterns across all markets and all periods of time. For them, financial markets are relatively static entities." Shorting on plus ticks anyone? That's really the meta-point of the whole issue, not the merits of whether changing the rule really did much of anything.

Market conditions change (not that I've remotely mastered this) but I do know it's vital to just deal with the conditions that are in front of you and not rue all the "Could Haves" and "Should Haves."

Condor Options asks:
Is the VIX Impervious to Technical Analysis?

The premises on which most technical analysis relies don't apply very well to the VIX (or to any other volatility index), since volatility indexes have some distinct and unusual features. Recall that the VIX tracks the 30-day volatility implied by S&P 500 index options; it is a wholly derivative product, not an underlying in its own right, and is not traded in the way you might trade the S&P500 ETF (SPY) or the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ). So, for example, traditional notions of support and resistance will not apply here.

I think he's generally right here. The VIX is a statistic; there is no supply and demand characteristic as in stocks. Too much is made of all sorts of absolute numbers and what not.

That being said, it doesn't mean technicals are totally useless (and of course, it's not like they are perfect in stocks). Big deviations off the MA's tend to mean revert. And we did see perpetual *support* at the 200 day, as Condor notes.

And of course, there's the whole causality issue. The VIX may anticipate actual market volatility, but it doesn't cause it.

Bill at VIX and More has a similar view, but adds a counter-argument, a link to Ian Woodward and his detailed approach to using TA analysis on the VIX.

And bzb trader also chimes in with some nice VIX technical analysis. Remember, you can look at technicals here, but keep in mind it's not a stock and don't get carried away with them.

We Also Have:

Truly Ironic Irony

From the Sports Guy:

On the day after baseball's first, second or third Opening Day of the 2008 season-sorry, I can't keep track anymore-SoapNet ran the memorable Beverly Hills, 90210, episode with special guest star Barry Bonds. Actually, it can't even be called memorable anymore. It's incredible. Insane.

...Steve Sanders was roped into playing in a father-son golf tourney with his dad, Rush, against Rush's country-club nemesis …that's right, a father with a wisecracking baseball-player son named Barry Larson (played by Barry Bonds).

As the tourney starts, Rush is cranking his longest drives in years, and that prompts Steve to confront him because, after all, nobody was allowed to cheat, engage in premarital sex, get drunk or use diet pills on 90210 without serious consequences. ...When Steve (played with Emmy-worthy zeal by Ian Ziering) threatens to quit and take his blond curls with him, Rush breaks down and admits to using-wait for it-souped-up golf balls! Why, you ask? As Rush explains, he's past his prime and wants to become a club champ once more. In other words, his fear of getting old has forced him to artificially enhance his performance in an athletic competition against a character played by Barry Bonds! In 1994! I can't stop using exclamation points! Someone stop me!

Sort of pairs well with this YouTube clip I stumbled on of Roger Clemens in 1995, in which he was worrying about whether his fastball was gone.

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