Random Thoughts: The Expiration Hangover
By Todd Harrison Jul 21, 2008 12:30 pm
Wait a few hours until the headache is gone.
- I would rather have a steak-mani!
- After expirations, it's always a good idea to give the tape a few hours to work through its hangover before sniffing at its true tone.
- Crude $130 remains a purty important level for Texas Tea.
- As discussed Friday, the inability for crude to rally despite the tropical storm concerns could speak to looming supply. Either way, it's a tight and defined level for those interested in such things.
- I have, so you know, reinitiated a small put position in the USO with a tight stop. My gut continues to shrink thanks to the South Beach Diet. It's also vibing that (cough) they will do whatever they can to get it down before the election.
- Minyan Editor Terry Woo is fantastic. I just wish he would stop playing this song all morning long!
- "Of the $400 Billion in market capitalization the S&P 500 added between Tuesday's close and Friday's close, $268 Billion or 66% came from financial names. Although we believe the Financial Sector reached attractive levels early this week, the concern among vanilla investors will likely arise from a belief that the engineered state of the rally." Mike O'Roarke, BTIG
- You can learn a lot just by watching. Grandma Goldman (GS) lagged her peers all morning and foretold supply for the financials.
- The easy trade is indeed over in that complex.
- Are you watching Baidu (BIDU) as it approaches important technical resistance at $300?
- How about the VXO again testing it's 200-day moving average?
- Guys should look on the bright side if their significant other drags them to Mama Mia. There won't be any lines for the men's room!
- Market internals, for what it's worth, hang tough. This is a stealth positive that's been lacking in recent months.
- There will come a point where lower crude is a negative for equities and it'll flummox conventional wisdom. I have no idea where it is but I'm most certainly aware that it exists.
- Ratdog. Allmans. Jones Beach. August 13th. Noice.
- I still think Google (GOOG) has room to $450 but I've booked the small schnitzel that we slapped on into earnings. Bulls make money, bears make money, bacon gets shaken.
- Oh stop Woo--it coulda been worse, I coulda linked this.
- And finally, the following snippet appeared this morning on the Buzz & Banter courtesy of Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens:
A reporter called a client of mine who runs a large and well-regarded bond fund (not PIMCO). He was asked his opinion/reaction to: the doubling in CDS on US Treasuries (4X as wide as Bunds, at approximately 20-22) as assimilation of the GSEs along with Bear Stearns and potentially other entities has triggered a rapid re-assessment of US Credit Quality.
He suggested to the reporter that she should also call to get a reaction from Gary Stern at the MN Fed.
She came back after the interview to report: "Gary Stern was not aware that CDS on Treasuries even existed…"
That's your taxes and your omnipotent central bank working for you!
Yeesh... time for a margarita... or twelve!
Position in USO
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