Business Lessons Learned from US Air Crash
As US Airways (LCC) flight 1549 prepared for takeoff Thursday afternoon, passengers learned for the umpteenth time where their flotation devices and nearest exits were located.
At that moment, captain-in-command Chesley B. "Sully" Sullenberger might have been thiking of every pilot’s colloquial description of flying: “Endless hours of tedious routine, interrupted by moments of sheer terror.”
On January 15, 2009, we all watched a rescue operation on the Hudson River along the New York/New Jersey state line. The rescue, surrounding an intact-yet-in-peril commercial aircraft, could just as easily have been a recovery operation. 155 souls narrowly survived a near-disaster when, by all rights, they could well have been dead. Break down the events around the crash and subsequent rescue of Flight 1549, and only one thing limited the loss of life to a mere flock of geese: Training.
Although the investigation is just beginning, the passengers and crew of US Airways Flight 1549 likely had the bad luck to encounter a flock of geese at about 3,200 feet, shortly after departure from New York’s LaGuardia Airport. The probability of 1 engine sucking in a large bird and flaming out is remote, though it does happen. The statistical improbability that both engines of the Airbus 320 aircraft, or any aircraft for that matter, would suck geese and flame out is astronomical.
Yet it happened. And when it happened, there was no more “if,” only, or “what next?” The flight's crew knew what to do next. Like any group of true professionals, they had ready answers and were able to respond instantly and successfully.
As much as all of us dread training classes, doomsday-scenario drills, and organizational learning exercises of all kinds, when the time comes, that knowledge can save the day.
Here’s who was trained to deal with emergencies on Thursday, January 15, 2009:
- Pilots, required to drill regularly on emergency, power-off and water landing techniques as a mandatory FAA and airline requirement for commercial licensing.
- The on-board flight crew, continuously trained in emergency evacuation procedures. Perpetual training is also required of air traffic controllers.
- The maritime professionals (captain and crew) ferrying passengers on the Hudson river, trained in emergency evacuation procedures and water recovery as a mandatory US Coast Guard requirement.
- The emergency personnel in New York and New Jersey, including hospital personnel, trained to respond to any type of emergency or disaster.
Last, but not least, don’t forget all the airline passengers who have “endured” pre-flight safety briefings every time they boarded a commercial flight. None of them had to ask where their flotation devices were, or where the nearest exit was. When the plane hit the 32-degree-Fahrenheit waters of the Hudson River -- water that would suck the body heat and life out of anyone without a wet suit in less than 15 minutes -- they were ready.
The next time you think about how to avoid your next training session -- or of cutting costs by eliminating the -- remember Flight 1549. Relentless training improves organizational performance in critical times.
In honor of yesterday's incredibly display of skill and professionalism, perhaps you shuld hug your corporate trainer for helping you stay smart and safe.
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Score one for the nanny government.
Perhaps bank CEOs should have to take mandatory training about how to avoid bankrupting their companies via leverage?
Government *does* have it's place and this is where it belongs. Good governance saves the day in this case.
And yeah, we need training courses for CEOs. (Session 1: Do not lend money to people who can never pay it back and why.)
"The statistical improbability that both engines of the Airbus 320 aircraft, or any aircraft for that matter, would suck geese and flame out is astronomical."
This is the same statistical error that caused the CDO - CDS crash. Once one goose had entered one engine, the odds of another goose being "sucked in" to the other engine is rather high. Geese usually fly in flocks. The birds distribute themselves in an almost horizontal array (all at the same altitude, to a few feet) and are only a few feet apart. If flying into a flock of geese is a low probability event, and ingesting one geese into one engine somewhat lower probablility, then the odds of afterward ingesting another goose into the other engine is perhaps one in ten, more or less. Catastrophic events often work this way.
Risk management models often make the same mistake and simply square the likelihood of a single goose getting into one engine when estimating the likelihood of two geese being ingested, one into each engine. The reality is in fact very different. If, say, the odds of ingesting one goose into one engine on any given flight is one in 500,000 then the odds of ingesting geese into two engines is not one in 250,000,000,000 [(1/500,000)^2] but one in one to three million or so.
As I said, the same conceptual error when made throughout the credit markets resulted in wildly incorrect risk management models. One must always reason from first principles when serious events are at stake. Apollo 13 is a good example. (The details are NOT in the Tom Hanks movie.) Bureaucracy WILL NOT hack it.
That the aircraft did not break up on landing leaving, perhaps at most, two survivors, was so unlikely that the odds against an attempted water landing working out the way it did are nearly astronomical in magnitude.
Each of those survivors experienced an accident as deadly as a skydiver having both main and reserve parachute completely fail and so falling miles onto bare ground.
And if turns out only one lost, then the bigger question becomes why they were unable to maintain altitude? Standby for this!
Had the bird strike occurred in a different location, there might not have been any equivalent to the Hudson River for ditching. The Hudson is wide, straight, and ten or so miles long at that point.
Had the bird strike occurred earlier in the flight, the pilot may not have had the altitude to line up an approach with the Hudson.
The weather, although cold, was clear and calm. The Hudson was flat, with no chop. There were no ice flows, which in cold weather can get thick enough to impede vessel traffic (yes, even in New York).
There were no large vessels entering or exiting the passenger ship terminal, located near the impact point, or any large tows in the vicinity.
The splash occurred near the New York-New Jersey ferry terminals, which utilize a number of nimble, relatively small craft.
The ferry crews acted on their own, at once, and came to the aid of those at peril, acting as mariners have long before the existence of the US government.
It was not the nanny government that saved those people. It was providence and the initiative of a number of individuals.
One thing some of our readers may not know, is that the wing designs of the more recent aircraft, DO extend the Glide Ratios, not quite to that of a private A/C, but far better than older models. Aiming for better fuel burn numbers, the wings have a higher "Aspect Ratio", longer (and even with those "upturns" at the tips to reduce "induced drag") and more perpendicular to the fuselage, vice the "swept-backed" we see in fighters (and even the B727!)
Much like the designs of our highest altitude "spy" planes, that gives them more lift, less drag, and, in this situation, a far better (survivable) glide ratio!
Also, A320, and THINK (?) most other newer have a "Ditching Switch", which closes the many inlets in the lower part of the fuselage, preventing water entry, and submergance.
Sure all have read ALL...Yes highest KUDOS to the Captain, but as well to the passengers ("Women and children out first"), the survivor who reentered the cabin from the wing to ensure all were out and met and thanked the Captain doing the same "walk through", those Ferry Boat Captains, NYPD and FD respondents, AND those incredible NY Divers who are working to pull the wreckage up out of the water and need to be sprayed with hot water after emergence! SO MANY "ANGELS"!!!
