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Monday Morning Point Guard

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With the meatiest week in recent memory in the rear-view mirror, we power up our Monday pup to find the crowd on the edge of their seats.

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"There's a, um tradition in tournament play- not talk about the next step until you've climbed the one in front of you. I'm sure going to the state finals is beyond your wildest dreams, so let's just keep it right there."
-Coach Norman Dale, Hoosiers


Good morning and welcome back to the dribbling pack. After an action packed weekend of college hoops, Ohio State, UCLA, Florida and Georgetown are heading to Hotlanta. That's shuffled up the Minyan March Madness leader board, with Minyan John David Barranco holding a slight lead in an uber-tight race. The winner, natch, will win a slew of snazzy critter prizes while those falling short will have the right-but not the obligation-to help Ruby's Kids. Lace 'em up, Minyans, as we run and gun this five session set into the history books.

With the meatiest week in recent memory in the rear-view mirror, we power up our Monday pup to find the crowd on the edge of their seats. Indeed, with the blink-and-ya-missed it six percent slide fading fast from the collective consciousness, the chatter has chosen to focus on the "reaction to news" rather than the news itself. You're only as good as your last shot, we know, and the bulls were hitting on all cylinders before jogging into our requisite respite.

Television's Jeff Macke, on Friday's Buzz, reminded Minyans to "respect but not defer" to the price action. And he's got good and growing company. Hoofy's Heroes will offer that the Minx had every reason to pull back last week and, if psychology was indeed fragile, the Iran news, coupled with sub-prime woes, recession fears and the Fed in a Box, would have produced a stain of pain.

That didn't happen, of course, and while Boo will wryly opine that the greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist, he does so with the closest technical context resting above at S&P 1450. That's the set-up as the Ursine Uglies prepare to play "D" and fight for the momentum that has suddenly shifted against them. Don't bet against the bears, Minyans, or the Bruins as the case may be.

Some Random Thoughts…

  • The bogey on this week's radar is Big Ben's smoke-out as he presents to the Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday.

  • I've long believed-and still subscribe to the notion-that energy and metals will trump high-multiple tech and financials over the long haul. That's a relative bet (in a down tape) and an absolute winner (if we march higher), in my most humble opinion. Either way, please "see" the XAU as it pokes through the 200-day (to the upside) and the OSX as it retests the March highs.

  • And yes, if Iran heats up, those two sectors will likely gap higher in response. Not a catalyst, per se, but a tail wind (however unfortunate) should it occur.

  • Remember at the end of February when we spied the S&P trendline (along with the SENSEX and the squirrelly action in the financials) as the ursine wink that something was amiss? That very same line, as a function of time, now resides up near S&P 1470ish. It's not factoring into my near-term plan but I wanted to circle back to it as we cited it as potential resistance once it broke.

  • Keep Pepe Depew's vibes in mind regarding the (bullish) set-up in the dollar and (bearish) pattern in gold. Through the lens of "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation," this might very well have (negative) implications for asset classes of all shapes and sizes.

  • Ruby always taught me that trust and respect are the two most important elements of any relationship. As usual, he was spot on.

  • #43? Not so hot. But if the Bruins beat the Buckeyes for the championship, the kid will put in a nice showing for a tourney he was awfully unmotivated about.

  • Deep breaths for a big week, Minyans, let's hit 'em hard and leave a mark!


R.P.

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