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Random Thoughts: Character Witness


You can learn a lot just by watching.


Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Salvation Lies Within and Unleash the Hounds.

Gate Sniffage! - 9:49 am

  • Red Beans in the Green Sea? JP Morgan (JPM), General Electric (GE), Sears Holdings (SHLD), Texas Instrument (TXN), Gannett Inc (GCI).

  • You can learn a lot just by watching. If those names can't rally with the eye-popping out-of-the-gate rally, that speaks volumes.

  • What have I done? I'm offering some token exposure to respect the process as I continue to trade around some core longs. The first fade is seemingly the easy fade but I don't wanna over-trade the fade (which may or may not be wrong).

  • Raise your hand if you're looking forward to a time when weekends are actually respites (hand raised).

  • The Blueshirts looked good Friday night when I attended the home opener. As a Raider, Knick, Syracuse and Yankee fan, I'll take what I can get. Thanks Minyan Sal for the look--I take nothing for granted these days.

  • Lemme hop--I'll be back.

Character Witness! - 10:27 am

We often say that you can learn a lot just by watching. The first notable character shift occurred on Friday when, as everyone and their hamster expected a heavy close, the market ripped out the rodent eyes. My own, humble opinion is that the PPT was directly responsible for that rally but it is what it is and they'll do what they must.

The second potential shift--and this is entirely more important--is the reaction to the news this morning. As anyone with a pulse can tell you, the supply side has overwhelmed every single green screen we've seen the last few weeks. As it stands, the S's are a scant seven handles from the opening highs and the longer they can hang tough, the higher the likelihood that we'll see another leg north.

You know my current posture--I've still got two legs in the bull costume (50% conviction on the upside) after two (massive) dances with Snapper last week (in and out of an additional arm). Minyans know I'm a humble guy--if I'm not, the market will do it for me--so please take everything I say with that in mind.

One step at a time, and we'll take those steps together. Some vibage:

  • I'm giving this rally some room and will slap a trailing stop (on a percentage basis) on one of the legs in my bull suit.

  • While I see potential flies (JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Homies), they could conceivably be the maidens we discussed in the morning missive.

  • General Electric (GE)? That's cut from a different cloth but looks like Jeff Goldblum nonetheless.

  • Love 'em or hate 'em, give some snaps to the European Union. Without their unity and leadership, our followers, er, leaders would be... uh... yeah. Let's keep this positive--nice job, blokes.

  • I'll be back.


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