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Gold and Crude Oil Decline on Euro Weakness


And on weaker economic data, as well.

Editor's Note: This article was written by Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist at, which is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, New Jersey, that covers more than 5,000 stocks every day.

The Dow Industrial Average opened below my annual support at 10,379

The bulls still say that the strategy is to buy weakness. I began the year in disagreement, suggesting to investors on Main Street to sell strength. I decided to track the first three weeks of the year as though it was a Title Bout between the Bull and the Bear. After Thursday's drubbing of the Bull by the Bear, the score became 9 to 4 favoring a wobbly-kneed Bull. With today's open below 10,379, I declare a TKO with the Bear as the victor of the Title Bout.

The daily chart for the Dow is now negative. My nearest support is the five-month modified moving average at 9,631. The downside risk continues, given weekly closes below my annual pivot at 10,379. Keep in mind that my quarterly support is 6,705.

The yield on the 10-Year is below my semiannual pivot at 3.675 signaling risk aversion.

The daily chart for the 10-Year yield shows potential to the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 3.56 and 3.45. This yield began the year testing monthly support at 3.868. Next week the Treasury yield curve faces $118 billion in supply, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Gold and Crude Oil decline as the Euro Weakens

Gold is below its 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages at $1117 and $1135 with the December 22 low at $1075. The Gold Bubble has popped and a weekly close below my quarterly support at $1084.9 indicates risk to my annual support at $938.7.

Crude oil is below my annual support at $77.05, and a close today below the 200-week simple moving average at $76.13 indicates risk to quarterly support at $67.22. This would be a sign of a weaker-than-expected global economy.

The euro is trending below my quarterly pivot at 1.4327, which indicates risk to the 200-week simple moving average at 1.3848.

Emerging Markets, China, and Semiconductors provide downside warnings.

The Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM) shifts to negative on its weekly chart given a close today below $41.18. A weekly close below my annual support at $39.81 indicates risk to quarterly supports at $25.01 and $22.82.

The China 25 Fund (FXI) is below its 200-day simple moving average at $40.11 for the first time since April 28. A weekly close below my annual support at $39.25 indicates risk to quarterly support at $19.75.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) shifts to negative on its weekly chart on weekly closes below 344.50 this week and next. This would keep last week's key reversal in tact. The downside risk for the SOX is to semiannual and annual supports at 271.90 and 259.45.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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