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Random Thoughts

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Does anyone else have the Mondays?

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  • Is that a crocodile in your pants or are you just happy to see me?

  • As discussed, I added some SPY puts to my book on the back of the FOMC meeting against some core longs that include SunMicro and Goldenstar. I've 'traded around' that (slightly) short bias, making a small, disciplined sale of my puts on the opening down ten (handles in the S's) and up ten (percent in the VXO).

  • The financials were the main beneficiary of the liquidity induced, finance-based economy. I still think there's alotta fat in that complex, as anyone on the Street can attest, and they remain a strong proxy for the state of our art. BKX 113ish and XBD 230ish are the respective 200-day moving averages on the downside if Boo or Stella get their groove back.

  • We've spoken about the changing face of the financial industry and that dynamic continues to manifest.

  • Note the metals (and metal equities) as they're starting to stand up and step out (versus the tape). You know my vibes on this group (me love them long-term) so take that shimmer with a glimmer of bias.

  • Market breadth is 2:1 negative and the longer that skew remains in play, the more likely it becomes that the tape will fold lower into the close.

  • Correlation among asset classes? That should sound awfully familiar to old school Minyans.

  • Ya Mon? While Costa Rica is my favorite vacation destination, I'm finding myself craving Jamaica of late.

  • The S&P held, for now, the 50-day moving average at 1425. That'll serve as the bovine backstop the rest of the session.

  • The dollar, while off its lows, is weaker to start the week. We continue to watch this as the "contra-tell" for asset classes.

  • I'll tell ya, Minyan Jeff Saut really is as good as it gets.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know...

    • Who the heck would buy Newmont?

    • Is this the contra-hour rally attempt?

    • Are matzah balls bad carbs?

    • Is the devil we know (inflation) better than the devil we don't (deflation)?

    • How great was the defense in the UCLA-Kansas matchup?

    • What caused the East Coast power grid to fail in 2003?

    • Wanna buy that special someone a really unique gift?

    • If bottoms are "points," aren't tops "processes?"

    • When will lacrosse be an Olympic sport?

  • If you live long enough, you'll see everything. Case in point was my rooting for the Hoyas in last night's regional final match-up against the Tar Heels. What's next, a Broncos jersey? (Don't hold your breath!).

  • I agree with Macke that today's selling had little to do with the massive miss in new home sales. It didn't help Hoofy, obviously, but it's simply a piece of the bigger, broader market puzzle. My sense is that last week's upside freak was part short-covering and part performance chasing, both of which abated with a weekend of reflection in tow.

  • Does anyone else have the Mondays?


R.P.

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position in spx, gss, sunw, financials, metals
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