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Random Thoughts

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It's amazing what a community that cares can do to support those without means.

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  • The world's first animated financial show is admittedly rough but it puts the Minyanville stake in the ground. It also paves the way for (much) bigger and better things in the city of critters, which has been a long time coming. Stay tuned…we're just getting started.

  • If S&P 1450, BKX 113.50 and GS $210 are the toggles in our technical midst, could we get any closer to a collective inflection?

  • Keep an eye on the all-important financials as we edge over the Tuesday hump. Bear is leading the downside (-1.5%), which I suppose is apropos, while the other piggies, including Aunt Fannie (-1%), are pretty in pink.

  • I won't mention our tri-fecta level tells again (I hate redundancy) but I will note that breadth has moderated (3:2) and the homies are danglin' anew. And given the VXO (-1%) is eyeing 11, I would offer that there isn't much room for error as we turn the corner into earnings season.

  • If deflation is the only real threat to gold, isn't it the best relative bet on the board?

  • Looking for an energy wish list with actionable ideas? Professor Ryan Krueger just teed up some winners for ye faithful.

  • For what it's worth, I think last night's 24 could have been the best ever. And I've seen a lot of 24.

  • Over on MVTV--the human side of the equation-- Steve Galbraith talks about the potential for a busted private equity deal to be the catalyst for downside. I don't know if Dow Chemical is "it" but A) at $50 bln+ and B) given the likelihood that the US government will balk at the notion of a consortium of Middle East investors to take down this deal, it's worthy of a push onto our forward looking radar.

  • Earnings season, already? I'm anxious to see whether the higher input costs will compress margins or whether corporate will try to pass them through to an already strapped consumer. Neither seem particularly positive to me but as long as the dollar drifts lower--and as long as private equity and hedge funds tap fresh pockets of capital--the musical chairs can potentially continue.

  • For all you "geopolitical angst" proxy watchers, note that Boots & Coots (-6%) is getting booted with cooties. I'm still involved, so you know, but I wanted to make sure you saw it as it edges towards my purchase price.

  • Am I gonna think of Bonnie Tyler every Tuesday for the rest of my life?

  • I scooped up some extra gamma (index puts) this morning on the push into S&P 1450, with the lion's share of those held for sale (hedging) should we break on through to the other side.

  • Mucho thanks to the many Minyans who so generously support the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education. It's amazing what a community that cares can do to support those without means.


R.P.

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position in spx, wel, financials, fnm
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