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Random Thoughts: Will Bulls Kick Save DJIA 13,000?


From breadth to banks, the Critter compass is pointing higher.


The following originally appeared on the Buzz & Banter and is reposted here for the benefit of ye faithful.

Gate Sniffage - 9:46 AM

  • Red beans in a green sea? Microsoft (MSFT), Valero Energy (VLO), Transocean (RIG), Fortress Investment Group (FIG), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), MXIM, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), SanDisk (SNDK) and Starbucks (SBUX), among others.

  • Why spy those? Stocks that trade counter to the gap typically infer an agenda.

  • The piggies are back above BKX 90, which is an important level.

  • DJIA 12,800 held (for now) which is good... it's the last support above DJIA 12K.

  • This tape could be the thinnest thing in three states so don't get too big for your Levi's.

  • Three steak sandwiches! I'm sporting for some Smith & Wollensky for the MVHQ staffers who trucked in for this holiday shortened session. Heck, it's the least we can do!

Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 10:27 AM

  • My goodness, is Festivus really two weeks from today?

  • Is Alan Greenspan really distancing himself from the bubbles that he helped to fuel?

  • Y'all see NYSE internals better than 3:1 positive?

  • Will Hoofy be able to kick save DJIA 13,000?

  • Can we all agree that one day holiday shortened frays are tough to game?

  • The French are starting a superfund now?

  • What is that, a superfund with attitude?

  • Wasn't there a rap song by NWA about that?

  • Is S&P 1450 too early or obvious for a counter-trend bounce?

  • What market scenario will seem obvious with the benefit of hindsight on New Year's Eve?

Brunch Meat - 11:29 AM

What goes along, gets along as we edge towards session highs in light holiday trade. While the screens are green and moods pristine, it's worth noting that we're basically back to where we were on Thursday's close. Some quick shots as we anxiously await our steak sandwiches at MVHQ.

  • (BIDU) just flipped the downside switch. Maybe something, maybe nothing... maybe dandruff.

  • Was that the low or is this a simple alleviation of the oversold condition? My money's on the latter matter as the structural issues run deep and we've still got a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

  • I continue to get "Whataya nuts?" e-mails about my cautiously confident "counter-trend bounce in the dollar scenario." And the more I think about that, the more I wanna be extra tight with my long side risk.

  • From breadth to banks, the Critter compass is pointing higher. The crimson sprinkles in beta (Baidu, eBay (EBAY), Amazon (AMZN) ) offers some cause for pause but thus far it's been relatively contained.

  • When in doubt, sit it out or trade a bit "in between." There's no need to be a hero today, Mon Frere, particularly when it's so very thin.

  • For my part, I'm happy to trail some stops and feed the ducks should they be elected. My positions are pure trades in the vein of dancing between the elephants and if I can make some hay while the sun shines, that'll suit me just fine.

  • Now, does anyone wanna make a market as to whether my split pea soup and steak sandwich will arrive before I shoot to the Bull & Bear at 1:30?

"You Wanna Play Tetherball?" Napoleon Dynamite - 12:26 PM

Alrightee then, we're T-minus less that one hour before we can hang 'em up and this Minyan is ready for his lunch. Additional vibage, por favor? You got it!

  • While this rally could conceivably continue (into Turnaround Tuesday?), we need to remember that until the pattern of lower highs and lower lows is breached, the benefit of the doubt resides with Boo.

  • That, the VXO (nowhere near previous pain points), YTD gains (still up) and the structural situation beg feeding some ducks into this jig (even if S&P 1450 is an intuitive first stop).

  • I gotta tell ya, playing counter to your big picture view is one of the tougher tricks to trading.

  • I've been pinging with Scotto Reamer on the dollar and he concurs that we're gonna see a strong lift for the greenback. Especially with dollar bears at 96% and the greenback down 96% since 1913.

  • And just like that, Smith & Wollensky has arrived! I'll tell ya, there are few joys in life as simple as food. Well, I could think of a few but I'll keep those to myself. Fare ye well into the bell, Minyans, and have a fantastic weekend as we stride into the holiday ride.


Holiday Festivus is here! Come join us and support the Ruby Peck Foundation For Children's Education at an old-fashioned Southern-style hoe-down in the heart of New York City on December 7th. Click the image below to learn more!

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