Irrational markets can outlast solvency so trade accordingly and remember that Opportunities are made up easier than losses.
The Following Buzzes took place between 10:00 AM and 1::00 PM and I share them for three reasons.
One, time management has never been one of my strong suits. Two, I wanna walk through my thoughts as they evolved and three, to showcase some of the Buzz & Banter content available each day.
Remember, if you're Buzzin', these type of vibes (along with all of our other snazzy professors) are pushed to your desktop in real-time.
- Flip Switcher!
Call me Crazy- you so crazy!-but after this morning's put purge, I've dipped my schtick into Matador City for a dip. I went back to the well on some "core faves" and actually nibbled a bit on S&P calls.
My stop level has been set on the other side of S&P 1428 or BKX 101.5, whichever comes first, and I intend to roll 'em higher if this fool and his money are lucky enough to find each other. The S&P 200-day resistance will come into play at S&P 1454, so ya know.
I don't believe we've seen the worst and yes, there are invariably other shoes out there. I'm simply dancing between the elephants and trying to make some hay while the sun shines.
I only wish I could type faster!
Rollin' Rollin' Rollin', Keep Dem Doggies Rollin'...
Two of my adds from this morning were ol' familiar names to ye faithful, SunMicro and Goldenstar. I like the insider buyer in the former and I'll set a "sell stop" on the latter below $3.20. Just sharing the thoughts behind the process as that's what we do in the 'Ville.
We're also seeing some big insider buying in Chesapeake Energy (CHK), so you know and if ya care.
I reminded myself this morning not to fall pray to one of my fatal trading flaws. Don't let big picture thoughts cloud short-term trades and don't let near-term noise interfere with the macro bent.
Hoofy's (and I suppose my) biggest nose scrunch today is the lack of lift in market internals. This admittedly matters less in future driven environments but it's still something the bovine would like to see.
We don't cast stones or rub salt in these parts but aren't analysts supposed to downgrade stocks before two for one organic splits? Merrill's downgrade of Countrywide (CFC) may indeed prove right but it was far from prescient.
Note the financials as they stayed sticky green during S&P probe. That bodes well for continued upside swell. Not talking my position here (although I am leaning long), just observing in real-time as we figure it out.
Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, always tired. :-)
Wanna hear a "shoot first and ask questions later" sorta style? I bought some inventory this morning (after closing out short put position), including some S&P calls as an addendum to some individual situations.
Lehman Brothers (LEH) caught my eye as it began to slink lower---Yeah, I'm watching you, brother--and I immediately cut my S&P call position in half.
Maybe something, maybe nothing and maybe I'm trading scared. But in this market, I'm looking for clues anywhere I can find them and this action jumped out and bit my lip.
In the interest of forthright disclosure, I ate the "bid-ask" on that tranche but it happens. Hopefully, my first sale will be my worst sale.
Not to be a dolphin (Flipper, get it?) but I as I watch Lehman (LEH) squeam, I yelled to the bullpen "Yo Pep, I've seen this movie before and I'm not sticking around to watch it end."
With that, I punted the remainder of my S&P calls for a small scratch. I've still got some individual situations (defined risk) but I'm reserving the right to trade them seven ways 'till Sunday.
And if the internals continue to falter (2:1 negative), I may jump back with the Red Dye pack. I will say this, however, under the "know thyself" rule: When I'm on a bipolar trading stroller (came in short, covered, got long, sold and it's not even noon), it sometimes helps to take a deep breath and a step back.
There is a fine line between reverse course and trading to win and being a half-step slow and suffering from 1,000 paper cuts.
What's for lunch?
How Bad Do You Want It? How Bad Do You Want It? How Bad Do You Want It? Not Bad Enough...
I hear ya Mr. Henley, this is The End of the Innocence for the Boys of Summer as we wash our Dirty Laundry and eye the Sunset Grill. At the Heart of the Matter is whether or not this will be the Last Worthless Evening when All We Wanna Do is Dance.
I'll tell ya, it's enough to make an Eagle bald!
As I flicker and bicker, mostly with myself, these are the top-tier thoughts fighting for my mindshare. I share them in no particular order as they're relatively random. Shocker, eh?
I can't help but wonder if there is liquidation in the metal equity arena. They don't trade right and, as I like to play these names from the long side, I've been watching the tenor quite closely.
NYSE internals were quick to flip 2:1 negative after they couldn't improve during the ten-handle pop. Again, not gospel in a futures driven tape but noteworthy as we try to fit the pieces together.
Note to Ariana: Please do not order me any lunch that contain bones during the trading (and writing) day. An A.D.D. person in a sensory overload environment is a prime candidate to swallow whatever is placed in front of him. Bones and all.
Are you flipping a coin today? Are you gonna be bummed if they rally (you're not long enough) or if they fail (you knew it!). If that's the case, change your pace. Trust me as I've been there. Pressing, guessing or otherwise messing is a recipe for a rough day.
With that said, Mr. Hypocrite, I re-nibbled on an uber-small schnitzel of S&P puts with GS, LEH and Merrill dipping into Red Dye. Is that over-trading? Only if we rally cookie. And, as we like to say, you can do anything as long as you're disciplined (and I'm staying tight lest I'll need some corks for my forks)
S&P 1428-1440 is a tighter short-term range for those banging it out in the pain.
STOP TRADING and check out today's episode of Hoofy and Boo's News & Views !
Other Quickies from Kenicke…
- Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, always tired.
- I've been trading from the short side (until today, as I've been both ways) and I'm sorta looking forward to going home flat.
- Ya Mon! That smoke you smell may be structural as redemption day is upon us.
- The market seemingly wants to rally today. The wildcard is the forced selling waiting in the wings. Irrational markets can outlast solvency so trade accordingly and remember that Opportunities are made up easier than losses.
- The Bronx is Burning has leapfrogged John From Cincinnati (fading fast) and is currently runner-up to Entourage as my favorite show. Granted, 24, Lost and (I'm man enough to admit) Grey's Anatomy will reshuffle the deck when they start their new seasons.
- Have a great Hump, Minyans, and let's win one for the Scooter!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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