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Random Thoughts


It's a holiday week, meaning that liquidity is thin and volatility will be exacerbated.

  • If you're not reading 5 Things, you're missing the best content on the street. Bar none.

  • While cries of "can't get 'em down " are bound to make the rounds, the proximity of the S&P trendline is providing Boo with a nice and defined ursine backstop. From there, S&P 1527 becomes the obvious beacon in the flight.

  • According to our friends at InTrade, there's about a ten percent shot that Al Gore tosses his hat in the Presidential ring. And ya know what? I think he'd win.

  • Nazz internals (3:2 negative) and the higher dollar remain cause for pause despite a buff showing on the front nine by the bulls.

  • Note to staff: Please communicate big meetings such that I can leave my Birkenstocks at home!

  • A year or so ago, we asked whether "money was the new idolatry" and noodled a society that worshiped the Paris' and Lindsay's of the world. I wonder if their collective fall from grace in any way signals a coming shift in our immediate gratification, A.D.D. mindset? Prolly not, but worth the question as I watch the S's hop the fence to Matador City .

  • "The resiliency of the market will be put to the test today following Beijing's decision to raise the "stamp duty" on all stock transactions. The Shanghai index has fallen 6.5%. From what I have seen, the last time the government did this was in 1997 when shares fell 30% from their highs. Prior to that; in 1992 shares fell 70% before making a low." Professor Sally Limantour on today's Buzz.

  • Looks like we're gonna need a bigger kitty litter box.

  • "Governments are funny about not being taken seriously. They've gotta lotta cushions, but they've also gotta lotta pins." Coops De Ville in his required reading morning missive.

  • There are two sides to every trade. Goldman's Global Alpha hedge fund lost 3.4% in the first third of '07, hurt by losses in the currency markets. File this away in the back of your keppe as broker dealers derive a large chunk of their change from principal trading.

  • Perspective Check! China is now trading where it was on May 21st--less than two weeks ago.

  • We saw collars going on in Brazil out of this morning's gate. No, not those white ones on a striped shirt (I never got that). They were put spreads being financed by short, upside calls. Protection. Hedges. That sorta stuff.

  • The brokerage index was the cliff branch for Snapper this morning and XBD 260 remains the Level of Lore for Randolph and Mortimer.

  • The metals are hard here. On the one hand, we've got the prospect of correction (which would clearly hurt the group) and on the other, we've got an uptick in geopolitical Middle East angst (they would benefit as a safety play). I'm there, albeit with bare cores, and I'm watching XAU 135 closely.

  • The VXO is up 2% but still at the bima. Yep, that's right, it continues to toggle with a 13 handle, which is mighty cheap considering what's going on in the world.

  • Remember, it's a holiday week. That means that liquidity is thin and volatility will be exacerbated. Take that into account by reducing the size of your positions and widening stops, when applicable.

  • And smile, it could be a lot worse.


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