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Random Thoughts


Quarter-end promises to be a doozy, particularly with $12 billion worth of deals in the pipeline, the most ever in one week. It's Make or Break City...

  • We all know the hype on the i-Phone. But what about the j-Phone?

  • We noted the disparity between the S&P futes and the cash market as a function of last night's post-market meltage. That's why the former feels better than the latter.

  • Levels don't lie, however, and S&P 1490 (cash) remains the focus into the close. Given the triple digit failures of late, a southern stunner would bum out a bevy of bulls.

  • We noted the relative traction in Grandma Goldman, Fortress and Bear earlier. Merrill, Lehman, JP Morgan and Citi have flipped the upside switch as well. Watch this sector, Minyans--it's leading the market both ways.

  • This story reminds me of Ruby, gold gloves and all.

  • Pfffft! And just like that, the VXO is off 9%. The volatility of volatility is picking up, which likely portends more volatility. Follow?

  • Speaking of which, after a few years of flat-liner action, I wonder how many fund managers are over-levered and under-experienced? We'll know soon enough as the quarter-end letters make the rounds.

  • Consistent with the path of maximum frustration, the Minx is chock full of fits, spits and starts on either side of S&P 1490. Tertiary tells remain mixed, in the context of N's over S's, so be careful not to overtrade.

  • On a personal note, many thanks to my moms for the best birthday gift I've ever received. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree and for that, I am truly blessed.

  • I nibbled on some S&P puts into the initial pop with an uber-tight stop. Sure nuff, my stop was triggered moments later. I hate it when that happens but if I've learned anything over the years, it's the virtue of discipline over conviction.

  • I still get goose bumps watching Hoofy and Boo. They were figments of my vivid imagination for seven years and now they're alive. Dreams do come true…

  • Man it's hot outside. On the heels of my 7:00 AM beat down from my personal trainer, I took a cold shower, got dressed and walked to MVHQ. It took all of two blocks for my clothes to soak through, which is one of the more unpleasant feelings in the early morning Gotham heat. August should be fun, eh?

  • Wowzers, the Black Eye Weeze continues as Blackstone continues to slip. We've touched on the risks of chasing IPO's in general but this pup is a different animal. It's big, bold and out there--for better or for worse.

  • I'll betcha this earned him some brownie points with some folks in the region.

  • Quarter-end promises to be a doozy, particularly with $12 billion worth of deals in the pipeline, the most ever in one week. It's Make or Break City (with a conscious nod that IF (huge if) the market can digest this supply, sentiment could shift dramatically).

  • We're over the hump, Minyans--the week is officially on the back nine.


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