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Monday Morning Quarterback


Hoofy has earned the benefit of the doubt but I doubt his benefit checks will last.


Good morning and welcome back to the flickering pack. With the holiday stretch in the rear-view and a sultry summer squarely ahead, we power up our weekly pup to find all-time highs in various indices and rainy gloom in Gotham.

By now, we know the backdrop that is sprinkled across your screens. The S&P, after a few sessions of whack-a-mole, finally tapped the vacuum that sat on the other side of the ride. We mused on the draw of S&P 1530-1550 last month and, true to form, here we are.

To be sure, there are reasons to be optimistic. They include the private equity put, the potential for the last bastion of liquidity, technical affirmation, a stealth transfer of wealth, mounting psychology (the "panic" phase is always the sharpest) and, well, the action itself (respect, don't defer).

And, of course, there is cause for pause. We're increasingly dependent on China, geopolitical concerns remain (terror, Iran, Russia, Iraq), leadership is narrowing, rates are rising (watch for asset alligators) and pretty much everyone is conditioned to buy the first dip (air pocket potential below).

Minyan Michael Santoli mused in his can't miss-Barron's missive that we've entered "a higher risk phase, one dependent on rally-chasing new money and heavy deal flow" and advised to "stay in the game but watch the clock." That sorta jibes with my best guess on the tape. Hoofy has earned the benefit of the doubt but I doubt his benefit checks will last.

In other News & Views…

  • China was off roughly 8% (the second biggest loss this decade). Yeah, I know it doesn't matter, as evidenced by last week's swift Snapper, right? That could prove to be a trap door, psychologically, so keep your eyes peeled.

  • I heard alotta chatter about Goldilocks on the back of Friday's data. Gentlemen may prefer blondes but I, for one, will take a pass. Think of that scene in A Beautiful Mind-when everyone is staring at the hottest scenario, it often pays to play the periphery.

  • Apple has confirmed that its highly anticipated i-Phone will be available June 29.

  • There are only $2.3 billion in new deals this week but next week is chock full of supply.

  • The chances of a rate cut continue to diminish significantly. Back in March, the market was pricing in 75 bips over the next 12 months. Today, the market is pricing in just 16 bips.

  • CMO Charlie Mangano and the world's greatest Stone's cover band will again be cutting the rug this Thursday. Minyans are welcome to join the MVHQ crew as we celebrate life.

  • I saw Knocked Up last night and gotta say, if you dug the 40-year Old Virgin (as I did), you'll get a kick from this flick.

And Finally, to bring it all together…

As I was out on Friday, logging some quality time with my brother (and a trippy drummer), the first thing I did upon my return was to chew through Friday's Buzz. There are some pretty sharp cookies in the 'Ville and these particular bullets stood out to these Monday morning eyes:

Good luck Minyans and lets hit 'em hard this week!


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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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