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Monday Morning Quarterback


Hoofy has earned the benefit of the doubt but I doubt his benefit checks will last.


Good morning and welcome back to the flickering pack. With the holiday stretch in the rear-view and a sultry summer squarely ahead, we power up our weekly pup to find all-time highs in various indices and rainy gloom in Gotham.

By now, we know the backdrop that is sprinkled across your screens. The S&P, after a few sessions of whack-a-mole, finally tapped the vacuum that sat on the other side of the ride. We mused on the draw of S&P 1530-1550 last month and, true to form, here we are.

To be sure, there are reasons to be optimistic. They include the private equity put, the potential for the last bastion of liquidity, technical affirmation, a stealth transfer of wealth, mounting psychology (the "panic" phase is always the sharpest) and, well, the action itself (respect, don't defer).

And, of course, there is cause for pause. We're increasingly dependent on China, geopolitical concerns remain (terror, Iran, Russia, Iraq), leadership is narrowing, rates are rising (watch for asset alligators) and pretty much everyone is conditioned to buy the first dip (air pocket potential below).

Minyan Michael Santoli mused in his can't miss-Barron's missive that we've entered "a higher risk phase, one dependent on rally-chasing new money and heavy deal flow" and advised to "stay in the game but watch the clock." That sorta jibes with my best guess on the tape. Hoofy has earned the benefit of the doubt but I doubt his benefit checks will last.

In other News & Views…

  • China was off roughly 8% (the second biggest loss this decade). Yeah, I know it doesn't matter, as evidenced by last week's swift Snapper, right? That could prove to be a trap door, psychologically, so keep your eyes peeled.

  • I heard alotta chatter about Goldilocks on the back of Friday's data. Gentlemen may prefer blondes but I, for one, will take a pass. Think of that scene in A Beautiful Mind-when everyone is staring at the hottest scenario, it often pays to play the periphery.

  • Apple has confirmed that its highly anticipated i-Phone will be available June 29.

  • There are only $2.3 billion in new deals this week but next week is chock full of supply.

  • The chances of a rate cut continue to diminish significantly. Back in March, the market was pricing in 75 bips over the next 12 months. Today, the market is pricing in just 16 bips.

  • CMO Charlie Mangano and the world's greatest Stone's cover band will again be cutting the rug this Thursday. Minyans are welcome to join the MVHQ crew as we celebrate life.

  • I saw Knocked Up last night and gotta say, if you dug the 40-year Old Virgin (as I did), you'll get a kick from this flick.

And Finally, to bring it all together…

As I was out on Friday, logging some quality time with my brother (and a trippy drummer), the first thing I did upon my return was to chew through Friday's Buzz. There are some pretty sharp cookies in the 'Ville and these particular bullets stood out to these Monday morning eyes:

Good luck Minyans and lets hit 'em hard this week!


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