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Random Thoughts


Why ask why? Because the "why" is more important than the "if."

  • If only more CEO's were cut from this cloth…

  • Yes, the DJIA is currently on its longest winning streak since March '03--and man, do I remember March '03! Still, the giggle has been on relatively light volume as we edge into The Perfect Storm.

  • Relax Farley! I'm not talking about George Clooney. I'm talking about S&P 1450, HGX 218, BKX 113.5 and GS 210. How the tape reacts at these levels will tell the tale and set the sail.

  • Don McPherson, QB of the undefeated Syracuse Orange while President Fish and I were there-is swinging by the 'Ville on Monday to talk about philanthropic alliances and Pat Dye's tie.

  • Uncle! I've officially given up trying to chew through my SPAM filter. So, if you're one of the 28,650 emails nestled next to the Cialis trials or home mortgage offers, please accept my deepest apologies.

  • Why did I just have the thought that banks, as financial super-markets, will follow the lifecycle of the telephone companies?

  • Google trades dry in a sloppy tape. IF (big if) the tape turns higher, that should bode well for G-Double O-G. Still, and for what it's worth, I'm not a buyer of this gorilla. In addition to the bullseye on its back (thanks Fish), I'm eyeing a flag formation (a pattern that typically 'resolves' in the direction of the prevailing trend).

  • S&P 1440 has held, for now, but with the banks and homies dripping below their 200-day's--and breadth 2:1 negative--I don't foresee much of a supply side respite.

  • JaMarcus can you hear me, JaMarcus? JaMarcus? The NFL schedules are out and, JOY!, the Raiders have the toughest draw in the room. That's alright--bad seasons define good fans and I'll be face painting at the Hole this year.

  • With vols so low, why bet with stocks? Given this seemingly binary juncture, you can set yourself up with a sweet "V-shaped" risk profile and bet on the train rather than the tracks.

  • Wait a minute! The FOMC will spend a few with us later today, offering the behind the scenes sniff from their last group noodle. As it stands, the market is pricing in a 60% chance of a 25 bip drop by year-end. Why ask why? Because the "why" is more important than the "if."

  • I gotta tell ya, six years after the fact, there is a sliver of satisfaction in seeing Hoofy and Boo come to life. A sliver, you say? Yeah, the curse of an over-achiever is never feeling fully satisfied, much less "proud." And we're certainly not resting on our laurels, whatever that means. Expect to see a new segment each Tuesday and Thursday on the 'Ville and, with a little luck and alotta moxie, you'll be seeing a LOT more of them in the months and years to come.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag


    Check out the assault on the trendline for the XAU dating back to September. Green grass and high tides on the other side?

    Minyan Dave


    Look at the big brain on Dave! Yes, I see that trendline--along with "from where we came"--and I further understand that if (when?) the asset class dance slows, performance will be relative rather than absolute.

    Still, given my book, I don't wanna overtrade the metals. As it stands, and I've stood this way for years, my longs are skewed to this space and my shorts reside in the financials and, currently, with a slew of gamma via S&P puts.

    I'm using a tight stop on the other side of our bevy of levels but, as it stands, the I'm holding my metal positions. Call 'em an upside hedge--or call 'em a long-term hold--but don't call Mr.T!


  • I can bring home the bacon. Fry it up in a pan. And never, ever let you forget your a pig. Cause you're a homie Enjoli...

    Hey you! Stop trading for a second and take a look at O-Dog and the homies. We've been watching this level for a while. Not only is it a triple bottom, of sorts, it's also churning under the 200-day.

    Now, these names are known to be tricky traders so be careful. But IF they continue to roll, watch for the financials to follow closely in their steps. And as go the financials, so goes the tape.

    It's the whole "finance based, derivative laden" fabric thang...

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag


    What are the downside key support points on the tape?

    Minyan G

    Minyan G-

    First stop? S&P 1440 but, given the breadth (2:1 negative), financials (below the 200-day) and the homies (broke key support), I'm not betting that this level will hold. If we break and shake lower, S&P 1410 looks like the next stop by my pen.

    One step at a time…

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Positions in SPX, metals
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