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Random Thoughts

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Remember from where we came and understand how long it might take for the system to unwind the excess.

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  • It's N's over S's today as Snapper attempts to find his footing. What's that mean? The four-letter freaks likely find more traction on a lift while the old school will get mushed on a melt.

  • Why am I now craving a tuna melt for lunch?

  • Tealeavesville? Market breadth remains 2:1 negative and the brokers are bunk, led by Bear (-4%). Still, looking on the bright side, the banks (BKX) and semis (SOX) are hanging tough and that is offering a Cliff Branch for the bulls in the hood.

  • A respite in the financials you say? Don't tell Blackstone (BX), which is off another 5% in Monday trade to a fresh all-time low. We continue to watch this name as a "deal proxy."

  • Long Ben & Jerry's and short Ambien on a pairs? I coulda sworn there was a full pint of "Half-Baked" in my freezer when I went to sleep last night. How the heck did the empty container find its way to my kitchen floor this morning?

  • Keep an eye on Goldenstar (GSS) as it's flirting with the "cut bait" level we noodled last week on the trading side. I own some long-term but added exposure with this defined risk level in mind. Should it break, I won't hesitate to reduce exposure. Good traders know how to make money--great traders know how to take a loss.

  • Quietly, Beazer Homes (BZH) and Centex (CTX) are off 5% and pacing the downside chase in the group. Man oh Manishevitz, when a bubble pops, a bubble really pops. Remember dot.com and digest this housing mess as you extrapolate the implications of the debt bubble (recently) bursting.

  • That's not to say we can't see sharp rallies, natch--especially when the press gets manically depressed. The point of the above bullet was is to remind you that time is the arbiter of fate. Remember from where we came and understand how long it might take for the system to unwind the excess.

  • For what it's worth, I'm looking at S&P 1370ish (if we get there on a bungee) for a long-side stab and S&P 1460 (if we spike) to lay some out. Subject to change, natch, and in the mean time, I'm stickin' and moving and makin' to take 'em.

  • So, Chrysler is tapping Robert Nardelli for the top spot? He's a proven dude with plush funds, for sure, but it seems a tad inconsistent with the management team that Hoofy and Boo recently mapped!

  • "Surprises happen in the direction of the trend. Even IF stabilization occurs, I would expect extremely choppy trade that could last two days before a sustainable snapper. If a rally doesn't develop by 2:30 to 3:00 today I would expect another late storm of selling." Professor Jeff Cooper on today's Buzz.

  • Speaking of Coops De Ville, we're about to unleash his daily swing-trading service for all interested Minyans. Please know-I mean, really know-that we're not trying to up-sell ye faithful. Jeff will still scribe his daily vibe on News & Views and offer intraday updates on the Buzz. This coming content is separate and distinct individual ideas that are updated each evening and sent to subscribers. If you've got an interest , please lettuce know and we'll walk ya through the dets.

  • Fare ye well, Minyans, and have a Mindful Monday.


R.P.

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