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Random Thoughts

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Remember from where we came and understand how long it might take for the system to unwind the excess.

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  • It's N's over S's today as Snapper attempts to find his footing. What's that mean? The four-letter freaks likely find more traction on a lift while the old school will get mushed on a melt.

  • Why am I now craving a tuna melt for lunch?

  • Tealeavesville? Market breadth remains 2:1 negative and the brokers are bunk, led by Bear (-4%). Still, looking on the bright side, the banks (BKX) and semis (SOX) are hanging tough and that is offering a Cliff Branch for the bulls in the hood.

  • A respite in the financials you say? Don't tell Blackstone (BX), which is off another 5% in Monday trade to a fresh all-time low. We continue to watch this name as a "deal proxy."

  • Long Ben & Jerry's and short Ambien on a pairs? I coulda sworn there was a full pint of "Half-Baked" in my freezer when I went to sleep last night. How the heck did the empty container find its way to my kitchen floor this morning?

  • Keep an eye on Goldenstar (GSS) as it's flirting with the "cut bait" level we noodled last week on the trading side. I own some long-term but added exposure with this defined risk level in mind. Should it break, I won't hesitate to reduce exposure. Good traders know how to make money--great traders know how to take a loss.

  • Quietly, Beazer Homes (BZH) and Centex (CTX) are off 5% and pacing the downside chase in the group. Man oh Manishevitz, when a bubble pops, a bubble really pops. Remember dot.com and digest this housing mess as you extrapolate the implications of the debt bubble (recently) bursting.

  • That's not to say we can't see sharp rallies, natch--especially when the press gets manically depressed. The point of the above bullet was is to remind you that time is the arbiter of fate. Remember from where we came and understand how long it might take for the system to unwind the excess.

  • For what it's worth, I'm looking at S&P 1370ish (if we get there on a bungee) for a long-side stab and S&P 1460 (if we spike) to lay some out. Subject to change, natch, and in the mean time, I'm stickin' and moving and makin' to take 'em.

  • So, Chrysler is tapping Robert Nardelli for the top spot? He's a proven dude with plush funds, for sure, but it seems a tad inconsistent with the management team that Hoofy and Boo recently mapped!

  • "Surprises happen in the direction of the trend. Even IF stabilization occurs, I would expect extremely choppy trade that could last two days before a sustainable snapper. If a rally doesn't develop by 2:30 to 3:00 today I would expect another late storm of selling." Professor Jeff Cooper on today's Buzz.

  • Speaking of Coops De Ville, we're about to unleash his daily swing-trading service for all interested Minyans. Please know-I mean, really know-that we're not trying to up-sell ye faithful. Jeff will still scribe his daily vibe on News & Views and offer intraday updates on the Buzz. This coming content is separate and distinct individual ideas that are updated each evening and sent to subscribers. If you've got an interest , please lettuce know and we'll walk ya through the dets.

  • Fare ye well, Minyans, and have a Mindful Monday.


R.P.

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Position in gss

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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