Cry Me A River
There will always be components of the market-the thousand little pictures that make up the big picture-that provide risk definition and inherent clues.
"Waaah! I just traveled 12 hours in first class all the back from
--Charlie Mangano, overheard yesterday at MVHQ
They say that jet lag typically takes two days to abate. Along those lines and in that vein, I'm officially out of excuses as I shake the sand from my shorts and settle back on track.
It hasn't been the smoothest transition back to reality as we're smack dab in the midst of an office move (eat your heart out Weezie!) and juggling multiple initiatives on the media side. Still, and with a conscious nod to the flickering ticks, I offer the following thoughts:
The reaction to news is more important than the news itself. I couldn't find any traders willing to bet on the downside in front of last night's earnings and that, in and of itself, is an interesting (albeit somewhat nonsensical) tidbit. Once upon a time, traders used to buy the rumor and sell the news.
Land Shark? Yeah, it could be worse.
Tell me something I don't know! The path of least resistance is higher as a function of the collective psychology coat-tailing the tape. Still, the next leg of our journey will be viewed through our technical lens with S&P 1530-50 above and S&P 1498 as a near-term, downside trigga (courtesy of Coops De Ville).
Under the hood, BKX 118 and XBD 260 remain levels of lore of piggies galore. There will always be components of the market-the thousand little pictures that make up the big picture-that provide risk definition and inherent clues.
Raise your hand if you've heard the phrase "new paradigm" before? Now, raise your other hand if you believe that all things are cyclical, from seasons to markets to moods. If you've got both hand raised, use any means necessary to click your mouse on this article, which assimilates all three. And please, we don't really wanna know how you poked the rodent.
A Reuters poll after Friday's jobs data showed all 18 primary dealers surveyed expected the Fed to hold steady this week, with 11 predicting its next move will be to cut rates. What they didn't say was "why," which is the question we aim to provoke in the city of critters.
We've long talked about the steady erosion of the middle class and the emergence of the "haves" and "have nots." It's hard to argue with that notion and equally difficult to diffuse the argument that the former is significantly skewing the economic data to paint a rosier picture than most Americans feels. With that said, I thought that Kru-Cat's Buzz on how to play this stray fray was particularly pertinent.
Time to hop over to the Buzz, Minyans-I'll see you there. As always, I hope this finds you will some jingle in your jeans and a smile on your puss.
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