By Todd Harrison Aug 13, 2007 11:58 am
With increased volatility, trade a bit smaller and a tad tighter.
- The risk of naked shorts in the context of liquidity.
- As discussed, I added a spate of S&P puts on the opening for a fade trade and set my stop on the other side of the morning high (S&P 1465, which, as luck would have it, is where I printed my puts). I will not hesitate to elect my stop should it be triggered. Discipline over conviction, cookie.
- I'm somewhat torn as I watch the toggle but setting stops removes emotion. There is some good (trannies), some bad (metal equities, Fannie and Freddie) and some ugly (homies, LEND –30%).
- The Tipper, Gore? The banks and brokers, as we watch WFC, Citi, and Lehman struggle in hug. That, and the higher low in the BKX, will tell the tale and set the sale.
- I'm not counting any chickens. In fact, I skipped my morning omelet after reading Coop De Ville's opening vibe (the potential for a two-day snapper). He wondered aloud whether that could take us back to S&P 1490 in a repeat of last week's spew (strong front half of the week, fugly back half).
- What would be the catalyst? The FOM-see was the cause for pause last week and this time around, hedge fund redemptions, which are postulated to hit on Wednesday, could turn the trick. Just thinking out loud as we collectively attempt to fit together the jig-saw together. (Jig-Saw, get it?)
- Fed Lifeguards?
- So ya see it, S&P 1426ish is the old school near-term double bottom and a level of lore for bovine galore. Longer-term, S&P 1375ish is trend-line support from the 2002 low.
- I'm convinced that everything in life comes full circle. Call it karma, call it the cycle of life, call it what you will. As Ruby always said, what goes around, comes around. It just takes longer than expected sometimes.
- Key tells, as highlighted this morning, include the VXO (lotsa desks are trapped short vol), the Dollar-Yen (carry trade liquidity proxy) and Goldman Sachs (piggy proxy for the shakin' bacon).
- I have nipples Greg, can you milk me?
- Remember last week when Aunt Fannie (FNM) and Uncle Freddy (FRE) were stealth tells that something was afoot to the upside? How ya like me now, with the former off a finski (5%) and the latter down a deuce (2%).
- I haven't picked up a racquet in ten years and after a three-set marathon tennis match this weekend, I'm hurting in places I didn't know I had muscles.
- With increased volatility, trade a bit smaller and a tad tighter.
- "$30 billion more and we've got problems? I'm surprised that this has gotten no press -- unless Congress acts fast, the Federal Government is out of cake. I can't imagine Congress raising the $9T debt ceiling without a lot of hand wringing and warnings." Minyan Neal
- (This is me not saying anything)
- If you spent all week waiting to get to the weekend and all weekend preparing for work, you'll find yourself in a virtuous cycle until you finally get to where you wanna be. And when that happens, the journey will already be over.
- Yeah, I'm a bit of a hypocrite (I'm immersed in Minyanville) but sometimes I scribe vibes such as this for both our benefit. You're never too old to learn, right?
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