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Random Thoughts

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News is always best at the top and worst at the bottom.

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  • Earlier this morning we heard rumors of an imminent Fed rate. In fact, Fed Fund Futures are pricing in 100% probability that it'll happen. Your friends in Minyanville would like to warn those looking for a sustained rally following such an action, should it occur. See the S&P chart dating back to 1998. A picture's worth 1000 bids.

  • I'll tell ya, these market swings are hairy!

  • I was told from a reliable source that one of the largest derivative dealers on the Street has approached their private client group encouraging them to call their accounts and encourage hedging. Evidently, many of these "wealthy individuals" aren't up to snuff on option stuff and the dealer is looking to take the other side of those trades.

  • What does that mean? You can interpret it a few ways, with the most obvious being "when people who never traffic in options are slapping on hedges, it's typically a bullish sign for the tape." Whether or not that's true remains to be seen but what IS true, without a doubt, is that you need to be VERY careful trading options with volatility this high (VXO +18%).

  • I've traded on the sell-side. I've traded on the buy-side. I've traded from the sidelines. I can tell you with absolute certainty that Wall Street thrives on the disconnect between knowledge and application and the reinvention of risk. Be careful out there, understand what you're getting yourself into and do your homework. Money has a way of making people do things they wouldn't ordinarily do.

  • Nice shoes!

  • The Cisco Kid was a friend of mine? I'm admittedly wary of Chambo's assertion yesterday (the strongest global economy he's ever seen) but it's worth noting that the Kid trades with a bid.

  • Why wary? News is always best at the top and worst at the bottom. I remember listening to his conference calls at previous tops (2000) and bottoms (2003) and he wasn't exactly Nostradamus. No acrimony here, just conscious recollection.

  • Yesterday I wrote about the shoe thang. They look like a sure thing. On the dark side as distribution on Crocs (CROX) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK) look like they've got the bulls tongue tied. (Position in DECK) Professer Jeff Cooper on today's Buzz

  • If you wanna learn more about Coops DeVille's new trading product offered exclusively through the 'Ville, please click here.

  • Celtic fans gotta be excited. Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen…and Reggie Miller?

  • "AIG reported better than expected results exclusively through better investment income. In other words, AIG was taking on more speculative risk.' Professor John Succo on today's Buzz.

  • The Homies, flagged early this morning as seeds of green, are sprouting higher. Boy, it sure does feel like that Warren Buffett announcement is coming, eh?

  • Other spyin' eyes? Tech, really---Google (GOOG), eBay (EBAY), the semis (SOX is up) and accumulation in the drillers. That's subject to change, natch, but that's what's going on, what's going on, what's going on, what's going on.

  • The more I heard the mainstream media pundits claim victory that today's worst is behind us, the more I was inclined to "let back out" some of the covers (read: buy back the puts) I traded near the opening. I didn't, but my trigger finger was itchy.

  • Particularly with NYSE internals remaining 2:1 negative (despite the positive fixed income skew).

  • Is this Home Depot "re-pricing" an important data point? To a degree--it would be an entirely more pertinent piece of information if the deal fell apart completely.

  • "Today I am 59. Tomorrow I'll be 60. Yesterday I was 22. Don't wake up at 60 and wish you had today to live all over again." Mohammed Ali.

  • Speaking of yesterday--and yes, I know it seems like forever ago-- we spoke about the importance of BKX 111.50 as a short-side stop. The high tick, as you know, was 111.60. Keep this proxy on your radar as we find our way through this latest dew. BKX 101.50 was the recent low and a "higher low" (at best) or holding those lows (double bottom) will likely spur the herd if and when. I don't see it coming into play today, mind you, but hey--I've been wrong before!

  • OK--so here's a question I really wanna know. If you could have dinner with one person (across the spectrum of history), who would it be? My first thought was Leonardo DaVinci but that's not my final answer. Send 'em in and we'll tally 'em up later!

  • Fare ye well into the bell.


R.P.

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