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Random Thoughts

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Pressing and guessing is the quickest way to give up hard earned gains.

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  • The caveats of easy money.

  • Shanghai (+2%) continues to decouple from the rest of the world. Pretty impressive given the global, inter-dependent correlation.

  • While quarter-end is more "important" than month-end, tomorrow's 'marks' assume added importance given the focus on OTC (off board) risk.

  • Never underestimate the effects of fear and greed when livelihoods are involved.

  • With last week's freak fresh in our head, seasoned players were waiting for a probe lower this morning, in the least, or a sharp decline, at most, to shake the tree and set us free. That was the most obvious scenario today but the path of maximum frustration is often fraught with unrealized expectations.

  • I tend to set my internal bar 200% too high. That way, if I come up half-way short, I'm still where I need to be.

  • Hoofy is trying put S&P 1460 underfoot (with a backstop below at 1448, the 200-day) and establish previous acne as newfound support. If he holds that line and forced selling doesn't arrive, trading types leaning against the end-of-day supply will be forced to cover.

  • S&P 1490, former support (current resistance) on the longer-term stuff, is also the downtrend drawn across the "lower highs" that have dominated the latest leg of this sell-off.

  • I'm a cat guy but this is one feline I would just as soon avoid.

  • S's over N's today, as evidenced in both the breadth and the price action. In particular, please keep tabs on DELL, AAPL, HPQ, SUNW and IBM, all of which have been fielding supply on the front end of our Monday.

  • Market breadth has yet to confirm the upside (particularly for tech).

  • The caveats of easy money, as seen through the lens of the carry-trade.

  • If you don't know, don't go. Pressing and guessing is the quickest way to give up hard earned gains.

  • "News validates price. Price doesn't validate news." Pepe Depew.

  • I guess I'm not the only guy frustrated with the state of air travel.


R.P.

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