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Time To Build With Home Depot?


Current pullback could be an opportunity.


Greetings from New York, where I've got that nagging, self-loathing, feeling most familiar to traders and those of certain other faiths (like mine). Sticking to the trading side, today's personal recrimination is on missing the short side after we ran smack-dab into the 200 dma on the S&P 500 yesterday.

If a pull-back down to support is a nice risk/reward buy set-up then a rally into resistance should be (and generally is, according to my trading faith) a good set-up for a short play. I talked the talk about the rally failing and didn't walk the walk on the logical conclusion of taking some short side shots (either in my PA or on the Tee Vee).

  • The challenge is to "live in the now" and focus on the next set-up, rather than chase the trade shorting horse after it's left the barn. That means keeping my bat on my shoulder and waiting for various levels (S&P 500 1400-ish, XLF 24.50 to name a couple off the top of my head) before pulling any triggers. Here's how I'm filling my time while not whipping myself:I've got a hunch I'm not alone in the Surly Trader section of today's flight. The short side of oil is a packed and terrifying flight higher today. Calling oil tops has been like hunting airline bottoms in 2008; all risk, no reward, plenty of horrifying and confusing turbulence.

  • If the sharpest rallies come in bear markets, what does the recent action of the macro tape, grinding higher and now plunging harshly lower, suggest? It suggests I like buying support, when they get there, and I best keep myself ready, as it could be coming sooner than I thought.

  • Home Depot (HD) sees things getting worse? That's a surprise with what Lowe's (LOW) turned in yesterday? C'mon, people. I'm still working my preference for Wal-Mart (WMT) but my man, Professor Gee Adami could be onto something with his thoughts about liking HD on this pullback.

  • I'm getting heckled for two things today: a "bullish dollar, bearish Gold" stance and my preference for Road House over Perfect World. Regarding the former, I still don't like gold but I raise a glass to those who've caught the rally. On the latter, I'm frankly baffled anyone could prefer a weak Costner effort (read: anything since Bull Durham) over Swayze's magnum opus.

  • Feeling tight today? (Nodding emphatically to my own question.) Take a couple of cues from Dalton, bouncer at the Double Deuce: "Stay cool and pain don't hurt."

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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