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Rally Into Summer?


But whether this is the mother of all bottoms remains to be seen.

Editor's Note: This is a free edition of Jeff Cooper's Daily Market Report. To receive a 14-day FREE Trial of Jeff's insights twice daily, click here.

My baby says she's trav'ling on the one after 909
I said move over honey I'm traveling on that line
I said move over once, move over twice
Come on baby don't be cold as ice

-One After 909 (The Beatles)

Do not wait for the last judgment. It takes place every day.
-Albert Camus

The range from the October 2007 high of 1576 to last Monday's low of 667 is a range of 909 points.

The decline so far from that 2007 high has been a sharper trajectory than was the 16 to 17 months following the September high in 1929. This has been the sharpest decline without a 50% or so retrace. Note that after an approximate 50% crash in 1929, the DJIA rallied for a 50% retracement of the range, which coincided with a near 50% rally off the low.

Perhaps the reason we haven't yet seen a 50% retracement is because the crash off the October 2007 high was more of a slow-motion train wreck: It took 13 months to get to the November 2008 spike low, and was still scoring new lows just last Monday. In contrast, the initial crash low off the September 3 top in 1929 occurred less than 3 months later on November 13, 1929. In other words, there was literally a dead-cat bounce after November 1929 into April 1930 as the market was thrown off the roof.

So the question is whether the market is poised for a 50% or so advance from the 667 low last week. 50% of the 909 point S&P decline works out to 1121. Got symmetry? Note how 1121 was the level of the breakout in September/October 2004. That was the "eye of the tiger." It was to be a 3-year march to a date with destiny.

Interestingly, the low monthly close of that mid-point consolidation was July 2004 - which of course was 3 years prior to the first top in July 2007. Three cycles of 360 degrees in time.
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