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Are We At Risk?

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Does anyone really feel like we're all all-time highs? Energy, tuition and health-care costs are rising while dollar-adjusted returns have been eroding for years.

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This originally appeared on the Buzz & Banter earlier this afternoon and is reprinted here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.


  • Minyan Dale just sent through a chart from TradingTheCharts.com, showing the S&P non-confirmation of the NDX high. The last time that happened? Yep, 1987.

  • Does that mean it's gonna happen again. Nope. But what I will say--and what I have said--is that the pressure is building. It's cumulative. It's ever-present. It's out there.

  • Can you feel it?

  • I mean, let's look through the lens of societal acrimony. Does anyone really feel like we're all all-time highs? Energy, tuition and health-care costs are rising while dollar-adjusted returns have been eroding for years. It's been masked but it's been happening.

  • Yes, we've been talking about this for a long time. My hand is raised. High.

  • So, why would it matter now when it hasn't mattered for so long? Foreign balking, perhaps. Critical mass possibly. The Treasury and global central banks are worried, which is clear based on how proactive they're being while we're at all-time highs.

  • It hasn't paid to bet against the Fed since the summer. But it did pay in 2001, when the imbalances swallowed the machination. What were the late-inning clues? Narrowing, double-digit tech leadership by triple-digit stocks on a daily basis.

  • It couldn't be that easy, could it?

  • This is easy?

  • I'm not smart enough to know which way the wind blows but I am forthright enough to communicate that I believe risk is high. Whether or not that manifests remains to be seen.

  • Either way and no matter what, we're gonna figure it out.

  • And how we gonna figure it out? Together. For if Minyanville has taught me anything, it's that our odds of success are much greater if we surround ourselves with people we trust that have skill-sets that complement our own.

  • And if you don't believe me, circle Ruby's Birthday and find out for yourself. I've always said that trying to explain Minyanville to someone who hasn't experienced it is like trying to explain the sunset to a blind man.

  • You can do a pretty good job with words but being there makes it all seem to make sense.

  • Fare ye well into the bell and have a mindful night. And yes, I mean YOU!

    R.P.
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