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Are We At Risk?

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Does anyone really feel like we're all all-time highs? Energy, tuition and health-care costs are rising while dollar-adjusted returns have been eroding for years.

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This originally appeared on the Buzz & Banter earlier this afternoon and is reprinted here for the benefit of the Minyanville community.


  • Minyan Dale just sent through a chart from TradingTheCharts.com, showing the S&P non-confirmation of the NDX high. The last time that happened? Yep, 1987.

  • Does that mean it's gonna happen again. Nope. But what I will say--and what I have said--is that the pressure is building. It's cumulative. It's ever-present. It's out there.

  • Can you feel it?

  • I mean, let's look through the lens of societal acrimony. Does anyone really feel like we're all all-time highs? Energy, tuition and health-care costs are rising while dollar-adjusted returns have been eroding for years. It's been masked but it's been happening.

  • Yes, we've been talking about this for a long time. My hand is raised. High.

  • So, why would it matter now when it hasn't mattered for so long? Foreign balking, perhaps. Critical mass possibly. The Treasury and global central banks are worried, which is clear based on how proactive they're being while we're at all-time highs.

  • It hasn't paid to bet against the Fed since the summer. But it did pay in 2001, when the imbalances swallowed the machination. What were the late-inning clues? Narrowing, double-digit tech leadership by triple-digit stocks on a daily basis.

  • It couldn't be that easy, could it?

  • This is easy?

  • I'm not smart enough to know which way the wind blows but I am forthright enough to communicate that I believe risk is high. Whether or not that manifests remains to be seen.

  • Either way and no matter what, we're gonna figure it out.

  • And how we gonna figure it out? Together. For if Minyanville has taught me anything, it's that our odds of success are much greater if we surround ourselves with people we trust that have skill-sets that complement our own.

  • And if you don't believe me, circle Ruby's Birthday and find out for yourself. I've always said that trying to explain Minyanville to someone who hasn't experienced it is like trying to explain the sunset to a blind man.

  • You can do a pretty good job with words but being there makes it all seem to make sense.

  • Fare ye well into the bell and have a mindful night. And yes, I mean YOU!

    R.P.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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