Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Minyan Mailbag: The Ruins of June


What usually follows months like this?


Prof. Goepfert,

What has happened historically after months this lousy, particularly during secular bears?

Thank you,
Prof. Sedacca

Prof. Sedacca,

One of the pieces of data that's been drifting around the past couple of days notes that this is shaping up to be the worst June in the DJIA since the Great Depression.

That's sobering stuff, so let's take a look at the S&P 500 and see how this month is shaping up (subject to change, of course, as the month is obviously not over just yet).

This would be the worst June swoon in the history of the index, beating June 1962 by about 1%. There was a particularly nasty 25% spill in the four months leading up to June '62, a touch worse than what we've seen so far this time around.

Overall, this month would rank 10th on the all-time dunce list, and the worst month since September 2002. Going forward there wasn't a lot consistent about the other months. There was a generally positive bias, but that's the case for any random month, and especially so after a down month.

Five of these "worst months" occurred during the last bear market from 2000 - 2002, and surprisingly enough the next month was positive four of the five times, and we were positive three months later three of the five.

During the mostly-pathetic 1970's, six of the months qualified for this list, and again the performance going forward was mixed to even slightly positive when looking out longer than one month. There were some huge sell-offs following these already-disastrous months, but also some major rebounds.

I'm not sure that this has a ton of use other than the headline shock factor ("10th Worst Month of All Time!"), but generally there has been a positive bias following horrendous performances like this.


No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Featured Videos