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Doin' It Bloggystyle: Greenspan, Credit Crunch and the Mets


Minyanville brings together the best of what they are saying "out there" about the topics we're talking about right here.

Blogs themselves need no introduction, as they get as much publicity as pretty much anything these days, save maybe the latest Britney news. There's an expanding world of excellent financial blogs, covering just about everything, from global economics to swing trading. Minyanville's goal is to bring together the best of what they are saying "out there" about the topics we're talking about right here.

Holiday... or is that Holliday? As one of 12 people apparently who both found last night's Rockies-Padres game on the dial, and stayed up to watch it, one word. Wow. And good thing there is no replay in baseball. Wouldn't want to slow down a game that already lasted 5 hours and actually make sure a season ending play at the plate was called correctly.

Read Blog. Make Money?

  • Interesting ideas here in a series of posts over the course of the last nine months, via Stockbee. Starting with How to beat the market for $1.25 per week.
  • Sounds like some pump and dump scam right? Far from it, the number refers to what it would cost to buy Investors Daily on Thursday's in order to get the IBD 200 each week. And then run it through some screeners that Stockbee goes over.
  • He follows up with an improved methodology here.
  • As well as this week's names.
  • I can't vouch for the results, but what I like here is he lays out the plan, tweaks it over time, and puts the responsibility clearly on the reader to do what they want with it.

Watch TV, Make Money?

  • In their September 2007 working paper entitled "The Performance and Impact of Stock Picks Mentioned on Mad Money", Bryan Lim and Joao Rosario evaluate a certain TV show's ability to move markets over the short term and to forecast winners and losers over the long term.
  • CXO Advisory breaks down the results here, hat tip to Abnormal Returns.
  • Nickel version? " (sell) recommendations tend to gap up (down) overnight to a degree inverse to market capitalization and then level off or reverse over the next few weeks. In general, investors cannot capture the gaps. The best play for traders is to buy Cramer-initiated small-cap sell recommendations within a few days and wait for reversal over the next few weeks."

Bigger Pictures

  • Bipolar Disorder? Financial Armageddon delves into the disconnect between the national mood and that of the stock market.
  • Credit crunch all behind us? Not the most, as per Dr. Housing Bubble. "It seems that we are having another bubble forming; that of a bubble around many of our current leaders from hearing the true situation on the Street."
  • The Mess That Greenspan Made on who's to blame for all the denial.

All Hail Our New Phillies Overlords

  • Tried to pen some thoughts on the Mets after The Collapse here, but it'shard to really summarize. After a day to think about it I realized I wasn't actually thinking about it that much. If Tom Glavine felt so indifferent towards lasting 1/3 of an inning with the season on the line (he pointed out it's just like the other 18 of his season's where he didn't win a World Series) why should I care? Anwer is, I shouldn't.
  • Here's something symbolic in retrospect. Baseball Prospectus ran some stats on baserunning in July, calculating for each team how many net "runs" they added via taking extra bases (say, getting from first to third on a single), stolen base percentage, etc vs. how many they lost getting thrown out or not advancing as often as they should have.
  • It's complicated as can be, but the number to look at is the right hand column on the bottom table in the link.
  • The Mets have probably the best team speed in baseball, they were the first team to steal 200 bases in about a decade, yet they ranked last in overall baserunning. At the time of the study, they had cost themselves 10 runs over the course of the season, which translates out to about 1 game in the standings. That was in July and they didn't exactly get better as the season went on.
  • Not much "lost" on ignoring some fundamentals, except when you factor in that they came up 1 game short.
  • How much did that playoff miss cost them? According to Darren Rovell, a cool $30 million based partly on lost ticket sales and TV viewers this October, and mostly on lost suite sales to the Yankees when both stadiums open in 2009. All of which is maxed out to asssume they won the Series.
  • Just because I am linking to his post, doesn't mean I agree with his logic.I don't. Mets have existed since the early 60's and have won 2 World Series. Yankees have been around 100 years and won 26. They have a much bigger following, and that's just not changing overnight, particularly in a year where the Yankees are good anyway.
  • Chris Perruna grades the whole bunch.
  • And all this talk of the Mets collapse doesn't do justice to the Phillies who went 13-4 down stretch. Congrats.
  • Or to the Rockies. If the Yankees or Red Sox won 13 of their last 14 games to catch the other one, then came back from 2 runs down in the 13th inning to win the playoff game, it would be treated here as the biggest story in the history of mankind.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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