Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Turn South
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Earnings Report - MV News
- Research in Motion (RIMM) reports 4Q EPS in-line of $0.99 on revs of $930.4 mln vs. $936.76 mln cons.
- Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) reports 4Q EPS of $0.79 vs. $0.78 on revs of $2.0 blln vs. $1.94 bln.
- Genentech (DNA) reports 1Q EPS of $0.74 vs. $0.67 cons on revs of $2.84 bln vs. $2.75 bln cons.
Lonesome Dove - Ryan Krueger - 4:12 PM
The all-too peaceful market meets its demise today? I don't know if it's a sign but there's an imprint on my window right now with a perfectly outlined bird of peace, the dove, after one just smashed into my office (no problem admitting I shrieked like school girl). The trader I was talking to at that moment probably thought I had some sort of poker face responding to his question with that shriek.
For what it's worth, my shotguns on the short side are tracking birds in the consumer discretion and financial sectors, in the US, I must note. Prof. Sedacca's points this a.m. about foreign markets should be not merely glanced at, but truly considered perhaps paired with a Kirin while you're watching the first pitch in HD from Matsuzaka to Ichiro tonight. I can't recall looking forward to a game in early April as much.
The message? It's not the US' time anymore. Not to be to depressing, I actually think it's quite tradable and precisely what's most exciting about capitalism – but the reality is the US standard of living is not what has the most to gain compared to its foreign brothers. And we learned just this week with the UK markets' market cap eclipsing the US', that perhaps the US is slowly becoming the foreigner. This is a big part of my firm's gameplan, as its headwinds are others' tailwinds.
Some of the emerging markets look so ripe for a meltdown, I've been noting for a while (and incorrectly so far), but the message, longer term, at least in my view is clear, it's "their time" as well it should be.
Random Thoughts on the Hump - Todd Harrison - 3:19 PM
- Tapes that are fugly all day (with 2:1 negative breadth) tend to end that way.
- Tells into the close? Goldman.
- April expiration (next week) has the potential to increase volatility into next week as dealers square their short vol.
- Someone just traded 130,000 Wal-Mart Jan '09 40 calls vs. 165,000 shares of stock (created stock for sale as a residual). Man, don't you just hate odd-lotters?
- The above mentioned bullet was intentionally left blank as I wrote something that I've been feeling for years but have never shared...and now is not the time to start.
- I punted my Aunt Fannie puts as 1) I'm paring a bit of risk, (I'm still net short with stops above) 2) I've got this weird sense that it's gonna pin $55 and 3) opportunities are made up easier than losses.
- I walked up to my trainer at 6:30 this morning and said "hurt me." She did, although I'm not sure I realized it until just now.
- Deep breaths, Minyans, we're officially over the hump and eyeing Margarita Mavens into the weekend!
- Tells into the close? Goldman.
More of the Same - Kevin Depew - 1:45 PM
The Schumer "news" - which has already been out there for several weeks - is the result of a planned conference scheduled for today to report findings from the Congressional Joint Economic Committee on the impact of subprime mortgage and foreclosures.
The committee's recommendations include extending federal oversight to mortgage lending standards currently regulated by states, like loan underwriting and real estate agent licensing; creating a federal anti-predatory lending law; enforcing more stringent standards for would-be borrowers unable to pay and improving disclosures for non-traditional mortgages.
Reuters says that in addition to the measures stated above, Schumer is proposing non-profit groups administer a mortgage holder bailout totaling "several hundred million dollars."
As Five Things noted yesterday, the net result of these measures will be to make mortgages more costly and harder to obtain. A drying up of mortgage lending will then further pressure the real estate market and housing industry, which will ironically put the GSEs in the position of ultimately being urged by lawmakers to step up their role in making the "American Dream" more affordable... but only after lawmakers finish reducing their roles in the mortgage markets first.
Random Charts - Fil Zucchi - 1:23 PM
- Maybe the greenback is sucking in all the bears just to use approaching support for a rip worthy of the true health of the US economy (cough cough). Or maybe it just falls off the cliff.
- Cypress (CY) is being led by the nose by the rise in SunPower (SPWR) stock. Buying some long dated puts underneath it seems just prudent.
- NGAS Resources (NGAS) has pretty much missed the party so far. Is the pop of the last couple of days a change in character or a Johnny-come-lately move?
- L-1 Identity Solutions (ID), a fundies fave of Uber-Minyan Jeff Saut, is coming to life.
- Nothing, nada, nicht, nisba, zippo: given what the broad market has done since Whole Foods (WFMI) started doing "its thing," this stock is as close as you get to a "dead man walking."
- Why? WHY? WHHYYYY!?!?! Am I not pressing my homies short?
Positions in CY, NGAS, WFMI, ID, XHB
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