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Random Thoughts: Be Careful What You Wish For


That serious slippage in Texas Tea, coupled with a rise in the dollar, could lend itself to the path of maximum frustration?

  • When we say that sentiment is such that cats and dogs are holding paws, we're not kidding!

  • We're seeing upside call buying in Qualcomm (QCOM) on (unconfirmed) speculation of a post-close conference call with Nokia (NOK).

  • Bottoms are points and tops are processes. I offer this thought-as foreign as it sounds-as we ready to edge into earnings season.

  • A wise man once said that if enough people tell you you're drunk, you better go lay down.

  • If enough companies voice concerns similar to what we heard from Ryder this morning, they might close the bar.

  • That would, of course, leave Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson without day jobs.

  • Yeah but is she happy? She is? Darn!

  • The Following Buzz took place between 11:00 AM and 12:00 PM

    Canadian Flying Ants & Banter

    Did you ever get a feeling--a sense--an omen, if you will, that things just aren't meant to be? I got that vibe Friday night as I watched Joba Chamberlain unravel in the face of that nosty bug infestation. Hope springs eternal, however, as the Bronx Bombers fight for their life anew.

    The same can be said for the bears.

    Following a stretch that saw the bulls brushed back by bad news and return with a fury, we begin our freaky week with a crimson tint. Stepping out of a Monday morning meld (I know, right?), these are the first few things that stand out of these old eyes:

    • Asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation. The greenback is higher (DXY +50 bips) while crude (-2.5%), gold (-1.2%) and equities (S&P -60 bips) are retreating in kind.

    • Beta (Amazon (AMZN) to Google (GOOG) to Research in Motion (RIMM) to Apple (APPL) to (BIDU)) hangs tough, as does the SOX, which is holding on by a thread to Matador City Status.

    • The all-important financials are laggy, paced by the 4% leakage in Bear Stearns, as the piggies continue their quest for non-confirmation (watch BKX 111.50) and the brokers chill their heels under a few resistance levels.

    • Breadth, as it stands, is 2:1 negative. The longer that endures, the more likely a heavy close becomes.

  • Rollin' with the Coops De Ville…

    "Boomerang? An hourly chart of the S&P, seen here, shows it has pulled back to hourly support. A break below the June highs of 1540 may indicate a boomerang pattern playing out, much the same as occurred in July at the breakout on July 12. It's an interesting inflection point if any failure plays out here, seasonally and cyclically speaking." Professor Jeff Cooper on today's Buzz.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know…

    • Vuja De, will the "N's over S's" pull up the former or splatter the latter?

    • Are you identifying four-letter freaks to play should Snapper emerge?

    • How 'bout old school stocks to lean on if the worm squirms?

    • Does the 2:1 negative breadth tilt the scales in Boo's favor?

    • Didn't we say last month, when everyone was freaking about the price of crude, to be careful for what you wish?

    • That serious slippage in Texas Tea, coupled with a rise in the dollar, could lend itself to the path of maximum frustration?

    • Particularly after the indices "broke out" and pulled the technical types to the table?

    • But have we broken out enough such that performance anxiety has really kicked in?

    • As there are only so many spots available for the December 7th Festivus (after accounting for all our snazzy professors and partners), are you prepared to claim your fame as early as tomorrow?

    • Does those faux Schwab cartoons freak anyone else out?

    • What will Minyan Jill, the newest member of the MVHQ family, sing at Wednesday's staff meeting?


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