Random Thoughts: Tying Up a Trying Day
It's been another one of those sessions.
Editor's Note: This content was posted in real-time on our premium Buzz & Banter and is being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also The Upside of Anger, It's a Market of Money, Not a Money Market, Random Thoughts: Viva La'Merica!, The Sandman Awakens and Random Thoughts: Is This Capitulation?
Is it Really Only Wednesday? - 1:49 pm
- Remind me to never doubt the tenacity of Turnaround Tuesday. For all the thoughts I share in real-time (which are many, I know), the one I didn't scribe yesterday was "Monday was just an appetizer, Tuesday is the digestion, the main course will be the meat and potatoes." Minyans know I don't fib so I can share that in good conscience.
- Reuters is reporting that Mother Morgan (MS)--my old stomping grounds--is weighing a possible merger. While I have no edge either way, I'll again offer that the new world order will include fewer firms.
- You know what rubs my craw? Politicians pointing fingers for self gain (on both sides). My take on the election is this--the economy is the single biggest issue and it's a punt for the next four years (neither candidate can do much to stop the natural progression). So, removing that, it comes down to social issues vs. defense. From there, follow your inner kuon.
- Ad Out! We've been talking about the tennis match between the cumulative imbalances and government intervention for a long time. As the former just held serve, the latter will invariably hit a top spin lob (of some sort) into expiration.
- I shot out a note to family and friends earlier--linking to this, this and this--asking them to PAY ATTENTION and educate themselves as we edge through these trying times. Someone replied to me "I'm not invested in the market, I just have my 401K with my adviser." That, in a nutshell, is what worries me in terms of where we are in the denial-migration-panic continuum.
- S&P 1080 floated around my keppe all weekend but I couldn't find a reason for the rhyme to share it with ye faithful. Perhaps it's nonsensical but hey, so is Turnaround Tuesday and the Toddo Sleep-O-Meter.
- Breathe. Risk management over reward chasing. Capital preservation, debt reduction, financial intelligence, discipline over conviction and go Raiders. You've heard it all before and you heard it for a reason. May peace be with you (I know, you've heard that too!).
Sighs-R-Us! - 2:39 pm
Hey, it could be worse--it could be Mercury Retrograde! (Aw Jeez!)
- Senator Dodd is making comments regarding a "Resolution Trust Corporation" type of solution, offering that there's no time left in the congressional session to set it up. Note to Chris--this is precisely why we've advocated being proactive rather than reactive. I think Pepe summed up this conundrum quite well.
- My brother Adam is coming up from Baltimore for tomorrow night's Cowboy Mouth show in NYC. Given what's going on in the market, one might conclude that this is NOT the time to listen to live music with your only sibling. I am taking the other side of that trade--this is exactly when music, family and "the little things in life" must be embraced most.
- Kevin Depew made an incredibly insightful observation on Friday. Technical indicators, by definition, don't work in a market crash.
- Note the rotation into commodities and, by extension, commodity stocks (I write this as I watch the drillers flip the upside switch). I get the whole rotation thing and yes, they're quite due for a bounce (CRB was down over 25% since July). Word of caution, Minyans, while we can trade 'em seven ways till Sunday, commodities aren't a safe haven in a deflationary environment.
- The definition of an investment should never be a trade gone awry. Keep that in mind--both ways--as you make your decisions into the closing bell.
- So much for physical therapy tonight... but you know what? It could be worse and for alotta folks out there, it already is. May peace be with you.
They call it... - 2:52 pm
Contra-hour is in full frontal effect as we "edge" through this most interesting day. I attribute this to three things:
Short covering into tomorrow's uptick rule implementation.
Exacerbated volatility in front of September expiry (oh, where does the time go?)
Could this lead to the mother of all reversals? Sure, this is the Minx, she can do whatever she wants (we're just pawns). Do I think it will? Nope, not with 3:30 EST bringing the double whammy of stock buy-back haltage and redemption notices.
It's important to draw the distinction between trading opportunities and risk management. Should I have bought some Goldman (GS) under par ($100) for a trade? Yeah, prolly (the common, NOT options). Am I lamenting that decision? Dude--do you have any idea how many columns I've written in the last three days? (I do, somewhere around 18.)
Trading for me is just that, a trade. Minyanville is my single biggest investment (yes, financially, but I'm referring to my soul). No regrets as we stress and fret--just keeping it real, yo, and counting down the minutes till Adam and I grab a red spoon.
Fare ye well into the bell.
That Last Step was a Doozy... - 3:58 pm
- The 3:30 EST double whammy arrived in force.
- Remember Minyans, markets can stay irrational--particularly when they're structurally flawed--longer than most can stay solvent.
- Historic times? I would say so. Risk management over reward chasing is the order of the day.
- Warden Samuel Norton was right. True salvation lies within.
- I'll tell ya, I'm getting awfully tired of hearing that short-sellers are to blame. The business cycle is to blame. Or derivatives. Or Alan Greenspan. Not the short-sellers. If rumor can take down a franchise, how stable can that franchise be?
- There's no putting lipstick on this pig--it's ugly. Keep your head down and your powder dry. It's times like this that I wish Minyanville was required reading for everyone in the world--grandfathered a few years, of course--but alas, if wishes were knishes, I'd weigh 300 lbs.
- Be mindful of your blessings, please, now more than ever.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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