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Two Ways To Play: Paulson To Blame for Nasty November?


Strengthen your portfolio in good times and bad.


Can we blame Treasury Secretary Paulson for the November crash? Commercial-mortgage bond holders are. According to Bloomberg, investor confidence plunged after Paulson said the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) would stop focusing on purchasing mortgage assets.

Ditto mortgage bonds.

According to Merrill Lynch's CMBS Fixed Rate AAA-Rated index, the highest rated commercial-mortgage bonds lost about 24% this month. And data from RBS Greenwich Capital reveals that 1 of the AAA-rated classes of a $7.6 billion Goldman Sachs deal dropped to $0.53 on the dollar.

Paulson originally said he planned to use portions of the $700 billion to prop up banks and the real estate market through the purchase of toxic assets. When it didn't happen, analysts say, the market basically collapsed.

For more on the tape, see Toddo's Random Thoughts.

From the Bull Pen: The last hour of trading today was the one that bulls were looking for. But remember, the selling has been relentless this month and demand may be in complete control. Fresh bulls can consider the Ultra S&P (SSO) on a pullback after Monday's expiration hangover. Remember to put your stops in place.

From the Bear Cave: This rally could have legs into the end of the year. Bears are content to take November's profits and wait until stocks like Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) rally back to the $47-$50 area. If and when.

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