Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Agriculture Looking Fertile for Second Quarter


A first-quarter recap and a look to the future.

Well, 2009's first quarter certainly hasn't turned out like we would have liked it to for the equity markets. The market started straight down out of the gate, and not until March and new lows on most of the major indexes have we seen buyers step in.

This reiterates my view that 2009 will be a great trader's market and tactical moves will be of the utmost importance. While I was obviously wrong that the market would rally to start off the year, I still believe the S&P 500 should retrace at least 38-50% of the decline from the 2007 highs, which would mean a rally into the 1000-1100 level.

Continue to monitor the market's reaction to these Fibonacci retracement levels, as this will ultimately be a bear market rally. I would focus on equities that have not made new lows in 2009 as stronger buy candidates due to the positive relative strength.

Click to enlarge

The PHO would qualify as a buy candidate, in my opinion. As you can see in the below chart, the PHO barely made a new low and quickly reversed back higher when the market improved. I would be adding PHO here with an ultimate stop if it breaks $10 as I think the PHO could trade into the high teens later in 2009. As I've said before, this vehicle has a great longer term macro theme.

Click to enlarge
< Previous
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Featured Videos