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Random Thoughts

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We've gotta assimilate the four primary metrics-fundamentals, technicals, structural, psychology-but we've gotta adapt to the tape.

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  • The Snapper attempt after the opening abyss made a ton of sense. My initial thought, after stepping out of an internal mindmeld was "Who has the bathroom key?" Oh wait-wrong thought---I was thinking "I shoulda been more aggressive on my S&P put sale this morning, either for a scalp or to lock in slightly larger schnitzel."

  • But wait!, I thought, NYSE internals (5:1 negative) weren't rallying with the futes, a sure sign that supply remained in control.

  • I was taught to "let your first sale be your worst sale."

  • In that vein, and despite my opening maiden in the volcano, I've rolled down my stops on the lion's share of the aforementioned S&P trading position. S&P 1540 (now above) is gaining clarity as THE level.

  • Why did I keep my puts through yesterday's trade above THAT level? The action in the financials , which begged patience and, ergo, my usage of a slightly higher stop-out. I wanted to give myself (and my puts) the latitude of a bit more time and a tad more price.

  • That, in a nutshell, is why trading is more of an art than a science. We've gotta assimilate the four primary metrics-fundamentals, technicals, structural, psychology-but we've gotta adapt to the tape.

  • Just like the Ten Trading Commandments suggests.

  • I am unable to confirm the rumor the Michael Vick has been offered a plea deal that includes probation, a monitoring device and court ordered wearing of Milk Bone underwear for five years.

  • I'm watching those piggies like a hawk-- if the financial complex catches a bid, we'll see a helluva rally. Goldman (GS) is the key tell in that regard. The most important stock in the universe. The master of thy domain.

  • "Note how both gold and the gold shares are firm across the board despite the weak equity market thus far this morning. Whenever the gold shares diverge like this from the equity market, it's often the beginning of a fairly powerful multi-day move." Professor Lance Lewis on today's Buzz.

  • Were they Cheetos?

  • Interesting how beta is trading--Baidu.com (BIDU) ( which we flagged), Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), eBay (EBAY), Yahoo (YHOO) ---wait, are eBay and Yahoo still considered beta?

  • Speaking of BIDU, Professor Adam Warner was talking about the "90 vol" in August paper ahead of tomorrow's earnings. Be very careful if you're involved in BIDU options. You can be right on the direction and still get hammered on the position.

  • I write before I trade, which has cost me performance through the years but--hopefully--earned some loyalty from ye faithful. And yes, I know that sword is double-edged.

  • Man it's great to have Guy Adami in the house!

  • S&P 1520 is a level of lore on the downside as it's the 50-day and the uptrend line from February. Keep that on your radar, if and when.

  • Some folks are chatting about China's posturing towards higher interest rates. Leaving the "China bubble" discussion aside for a moment, the specter of higher rates and tighter money isn't necessarily a downside catalyst (yet). Remember the lessons learned in during our bubble-the rate hikes (and cuts) weren't inflection points.

  • Super savvy Professor Jon Markman scribed some vibes on McDonald's last month and followed 'em up this morning on the Buzz. The company reports tonight after the McBell.

  • Remember the important stuff. Like love. Family. Charity. That pretty much sums up The Ruby Peck Foundation which I began in honor of my best friend and grandfather. If you can-if you're able-please help us help those less fortunate. It's the Minyan way.

  • As always, I hope this finds you well.


R.P.

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