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Never Bet on Apple to Miss


Seemingly, advice to live by.


Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter (click for a free trial).

I happened to be hanging with my children when Apple's (AAPL) numbers came across the transom. The word "holy" passed my lips before I saw the accounting kicker. Apple always beats and this was just another case of that beating, rather than the "Katie, bar the door" clubbing it first seemed. Indeed, as far as I'm aware, I actually coined the phrase "sandbag" as it pertains to the company's habit of setting expectations so low that leaving the company jet parked for about a week would allow them to beat on EPS. Sandbag is a golf term. It pertains to when a lean, long-armed, club denizen with custom clubs, skin the color and texture of a leather jacket, and hands the size of shoe boxes loses the first two holes to you then suggests tripling the bet, "just to be fair."

When Apple came in over $3 bucks versus a 2.15 whisper I felt roughly the feeling one gets when Ol' Doc, 4 over after 2-holes, pipes a 1-iron into a dust storm and finds it two feet from the hole. The lesson: Never bet on Apple to miss, and never change your golf bet against a guy named Doc. Write it down, readers: These may be the best two pieces of advice I've ever given on the Minyanville website.

Having more or less given you your money's worth already, here's what else I'm watching:

  • Yup, I bought Apple after hours, regardless of the sandbag. I'm not proud. Was looking for a nice hedge to the SDS I mentioned buying yesterday. A high-vol company that never misses earnings estimates and has a love fest tomorrow seemed a decent day trade. Besides, you'd rather bet with Doc in my above analogy than you'd want to take the drunk on his buddy's bachelor party weekend.

  • Target (TGT) breaking out. Not involved, sadly, but I wish I were. You want to see what a retailer looks like when it's executing as it should, take yourself to a local Target this weekend. Good clothes, fair prices, neat as a pin. Makes me miss my dad.

  • Populism and China rate hikes are gale-force headwinds for this tape with the former the more insidious, from my throne of judgment. The problem with branding specific groups for societal ills ("bankers are greed-heads who got us into this") isn't just that it is to thinking what "Draw Binky" on matchbooks is to art. The problem is, among other horrors, that it's the antithesis of personal accountability. I've met the enemy and he is, indeed, us. All of us and our baser natures. You want to lead? Make the masses understand that basic truth.
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Position in AAPL.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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