Microsoft Feeling No Pain; ERTS Hurts
Electronic Arts may disappoint.
Greetings from New York where it's snowing white flakes of kindness from the folks offering support about my dog. Thank you is woefully insufficient but it's all I got at the moment, friends.
Let's talk trading, if only to keep me from these humiliating and out-of-character tears. I've got a trader to play later, people. Need to suck it up a bit.
- Electronic Arts (ERTS) reports tonight, and I'm expecting something slightly worse than what they've already preannounced. For what it's worth -- from someone 1 pet-food commercial away from sobbing like Rocky when Mick died -- I've shorted some common and gotten long some reasonably cheap February calls. The ERTS train wreck is either in the stock or it isn't. No short common/long calls set-up is perfect but I rather like the one Pete Najarian and I just fashioned.

- On that topic, Ralph Lauren (RL) reports tomorrow. I've met the guy (very nice) and like the product. I've also noticed that it's selling more than 50% off up here, which is more or less specifically the target market for expensive casual wear. I've shorted the common, largely because the options were expensive and a "buy the news" rally may be in the stock, but I rather doubt it lasts.
- Anyone else noticing the absolute slobber-knocking being administered to Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and JP Morgan (JPM)? Bank of America, to pick on one of the names, is down a stunning 18% in the last 5 days I find it both jaw-dropping and sad (not my-dog-is-dying sad, but sad nonetheless) that people still want to argue with me about the merits of "Buy and Hold." It's a 2-choice market, folks. "Trade and Run" (or "Hit & Run" as my man Coop says) or stay entirely out of stocks. If you have another plan I'm 98% ears and 2% sympathy.
- Disney (DIS) reports tonight and I'm expecting nothing but hideousness and tragedy. I've halved my position which makes it "large enough to start a conversation with Snow White but too small to pay for a Disney vacation of any length with the dollar amount of what I have left." I was right about Disney being best of breed. What I should have taken into account is the fact that the breed is a Shi Tzu.
- For those Disney shareholders who find my sale to be disheartening, I would note that Microsoft (MSFT) has been running like a scalded chimp since I sold it. Or at least it's up a buck, which is enough to make me both furious and openly self-hostile. The point isn't my unusual psyche but rather this: Sometimes you've just got to chuck Snow White into the volcano prior to the stock going higher. If Snow White looks like Bill Gates, all the better.
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