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Answers I Really Wanna Know: Is Government Spending Driving this Tech Rally?

By you now see why a greenback rally could spell trouble for stocks?

  • Did "Goose" from Top Gun have a last name?

  • With crude in the mid-nineties, the CRB (commodities, input costs) eyeing all-time highs, stocks buoyant still and the dollar at multi-year lows, is the notion of "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" resonating yet?

  • And through that lens, do you now see why a greenback rally could spell trouble for stocks?

  • Even if crude slips precipitously (albeit in a relative fashion)?

  • How surprised are you to hear "greenback" and "rally" back-to-back in the same sentence?

  • What does that tell you?

  • Did you read the bull case on (BIDU) yesterday from a bull that was there early and plans to stay late?

  • Are your Mini-Minyans ready for the biggest, baddest, boldest children's initiative ever?

  • Can I please burn that black sweater now?

  • After holding (yet again) near multiyear lows, will the piggies finally be able to poke through resistance near BKX 106?

  • And IF the banks indeed turn higher, doesn't that tell us all we need to know about the year-end flow?

  • Is that the biggest "IF" in the financial universe right now?

  • Particularly given the divergence between equities and mortgage credit markets?

  • Is government spending driving this tech rally?

  • I mean, while they spent $8.5 billion on Y2K, they're tabling $100 billion for Networx and $300 billion for IPv6? (thanks Minyan Dwayne)

  • Wouldn't IPv6 have only cost $200 billion in 2002 dollars?

  • How much will that be in 2010 dollars?

  • Other than Bill Bates, has anyone in the NFL ever put a hit on like Ronnie Lott?

  • So, there's a 74% probability of a quarter-point cut tomorrow?

  • And a 12% shot of a 50 bip snip?

  • And then what?

  • UBS (UBS) posts a $712 million loss (and takes a $4.4 billion write-down) and folks breathe a sigh of relief?

  • If we were in the hole and on the lows (i.e.-if field position was heelsy), I could see that but... we're near all-time highs?

  • Will we see $100 billion in write-downs before this year is over?

  • What do cranberries do the other eleven months each year?

  • When Microsoft (MSFT) gets back to acne support, does anyone wanna bet that there will be plenty of reasons not to buy it (when textbook technicals dictate we should)?

  • Is that double top in the S&P Boo's last dance with Mary Jane this year?

  • Seriously, does anyone feel like we're at all-time highs?

  • Or does it feel funny, sorta like that rope in gym class?

  • Inflation in things we need to feed, educate and power the world?

  • Deflation in things we want such as cell phones, plasmas and laptops?

  • Won't corporate have to swallow the input cost increases (crunching margins) or pass them through to an already strapped consumer?

  • Doesn't it feel like we've been talking about this for a long time?

  • But it hasn't "mattered" due to the elasticity of debt?

  • Aren't the effects cumulative?

  • Like pizza on top of ice cream on top of peanut M&M's?

  • Or am I projecting?


Holiday Festivus is here! Come join us and support the Ruby Peck Foundation For Children's Education at an old-fashioned Southern-style hoe-down in the heart of New York City on December 7th. Click the image below to learn more!

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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