Answers I Really Wanna Know: Is Government Spending Driving this Tech Rally?
...do you now see why a greenback rally could spell trouble for stocks?
- Did "Goose" from Top Gun have a last name?
- With crude in the mid-nineties, the CRB (commodities, input costs) eyeing all-time highs, stocks buoyant still and the dollar at multi-year lows, is the notion of "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" resonating yet?
- And through that lens, do you now see why a greenback rally could spell trouble for stocks?
- Even if crude slips precipitously (albeit in a relative fashion)?
- How surprised are you to hear "greenback" and "rally" back-to-back in the same sentence?
- What does that tell you?
- Did you read the bull case on Baidu.com (BIDU) yesterday from a bull that was there early and plans to stay late?
- Are your Mini-Minyans ready for the biggest, baddest, boldest children's initiative ever?
- Can I please burn that black sweater now?
- After holding (yet again) near multiyear lows, will the piggies finally be able to poke through resistance near BKX 106?
- And IF the banks indeed turn higher, doesn't that tell us all we need to know about the year-end flow?
- Is that the biggest "IF" in the financial universe right now?
- Particularly given the divergence between equities and mortgage credit markets?
- Is government spending driving this tech rally?
- I mean, while they spent $8.5 billion on Y2K, they're tabling $100 billion for Networx and $300 billion for IPv6? (thanks Minyan Dwayne)
- Wouldn't IPv6 have only cost $200 billion in 2002 dollars?
- How much will that be in 2010 dollars?
- Other than Bill Bates, has anyone in the NFL ever put a hit on like Ronnie Lott?
- So, there's a 74% probability of a quarter-point cut tomorrow?
- And a 12% shot of a 50 bip snip?
- And then what?
- UBS (UBS) posts a $712 million loss (and takes a $4.4 billion write-down) and folks breathe a sigh of relief?
- If we were in the hole and on the lows (i.e.-if field position was heelsy), I could see that but... we're near all-time highs?
- Will we see $100 billion in write-downs before this year is over?
- What do cranberries do the other eleven months each year?
- When Microsoft (MSFT) gets back to acne support, does anyone wanna bet that there will be plenty of reasons not to buy it (when textbook technicals dictate we should)?
- Is that double top in the S&P Boo's last dance with Mary Jane this year?
- Seriously, does anyone feel like we're at all-time highs?
- Or does it feel funny, sorta like that rope in gym class?
- Inflation in things we need to feed, educate and power the world?
- Deflation in things we want such as cell phones, plasmas and laptops?
- Won't corporate have to swallow the input cost increases (crunching margins) or pass them through to an already strapped consumer?
- Doesn't it feel like we've been talking about this for a long time?
- But it hasn't "mattered" due to the elasticity of debt?
- Aren't the effects cumulative?
- Like pizza on top of ice cream on top of peanut M&M's?
- Or am I projecting?
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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