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Random Thoughts: Positive Tech Bids, Banks Dip Into the Red


...if recessions are part of the business cycle, why are we fighting so hard to avoid one?

  • The most bullish thang on my screen? Market internals, which are better than 2:1 positive, along with the bid to beta, from GOOG to APPL to BIDU.

  • The biggest flies in the upside try? Pink sprinkles in the piggies, including JPM, LEH, BSC and MS.

  • The swing factor? Keep an eye on BKX 111.50 as goggles for the toggle.

  • Could the tape continue to run? Only if A) the dollar continues to slip (it's higher today) and B) foreigners don't call a balk.

  • Could I be wrong? You betcha. It happens to the best of us and anyone who tells you they haven't taken licks in this business isn't someone you wanna be doing business with.

  • We pride ourselves in asking "why" rather than "what" in Minyanville, which cuts to the root of the reasons behind the rate cut. We've asked these questions before-most notably, here-and ponder the same as we celebrate the "proactive" FOMC actions.

  • After all, if recessions are part of the business cycle, why are we fighting so hard to avoid one?

  • According to the weekly Investor's Intelligence Survey, Bullish sentiment rose to 53.95 vs. 48.3% last week. Bearish sentiment fell to 27% vs. 31% last week. Keep in mind that these readings were compiled on Friday and didn't incorporate the mad rash, er, dash higher this week.

  • Absent end-of-day forced selling (Marley, mon), I would think that Boo has a two hour window to turn the screws before "tapes that are strong all day tend to end that way" couples with negative gamma (in front of September expiration) to put the ball back in the hands of Hoofy.

  • The Following Buzzes Appeared between 9:00 AM and 10:00 AM

    • Gate Sniffage
      9:41 AM

      With an overt disclosure that:

      1) I was away from the fray for a bit.

      2) It typically takes me a few days to find my feel.

      3) Red-eye. Ugh. Enough said.

      4) I'm conscious of the action in the financials (giggly green)...

      I've added a slab of December S&P puts to my sheets. I wanted to "leg" (out of October paper) and, having sold those puts last Wednesday, I'm "o-lambing" into the (first tranche of) Christmas paper this morning.

      I am also taking a close look at Mother Morgan (under $70) as stocks that don't get jiggy in green openings typically imply supply.


    • Mother Me!
      10:00 AM

      Minyans know I have a long-standing relationship with Mother Morgan. Now, I've got a near-term relationship with the stock as well.

      Looking at the price action, on the heels of earnings, juxtaposed against the jiggy green screens and in the context of resistance above ($70), I bought a few October puts in the name for a trade.

      Certainly not advice, I'm simply sharing my process with hopes that it adds value to yours.


  • Friday Night. December 7th. NYC. Minyanville's Circle of Trust Holiday Festivus to benefit Children's Education. Noice.

  • Not that you asked but the left coast swing was immensely "Minyan positive," from MV Kids to The Exchange to the broader entertainment spectrum. It sorta makes me wanna break out some BTO!

  • As always, I hope this finds you with a smile on your puss and some jingle in your jeans.


Position in MS

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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