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Random Thoughts: Treading Into the Fed


Can today's decision turn the downside tide?


Editor's Note: The following content was posted in real-time on our premium Buzz & Banter and is being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Answers I Really Wanna Know: Should I Stay or Should I Go Now? and Morning Dew: The World Waffles and Russia Halts.

Gate Sniffage! - 10:04 am

  • Who needs television when we've got the world's greatest reality show flickering and bickering before our eyes?

  • The knee jerk reaction out of the gate? A rally attempt, which was the easy trade. I tried to play along and buy 25,000 AIG (AIG) at $1.60 for a quick and dirty schnitzel but alas, my order was bounced from the system. I would have, so you know, taken the buck and "gone home' on the "easy" trade.

  • Dusting off my uniform and taking a look around? We'll likely see another probe lower as buying the opening and riding a reversal is likely too easy.

  • Market breadth is 5:1 negative, lest you haven't sniffed it out.

  • Levels of Lore? S&P 1200--from where we broke--on any retest as past support is future resistance. Also keep an eye cast towards NDX 1670, which is the next tangible support for tech.

  • The difference between loss and loss. Just as I was preparing for this dogfight of a day, I received word that a fraternity brother of mine, John Amodei, passed away. He is survived by his wife, two children, parents and brother. It was a sober and somber reminder that for all we do and as hard as we try, life is a fragile blessing. Rest in peace my brother, in Tau Kappa Phi.

Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world... - 10:52 am

  • Please note that the opening gaps in the mainstay averages have now been filled.

  • If there is one "easy" trade each day, that knee jerk gap fillage was it.

  • FOMC days are typically a tale of two tapes with 2:15 EST as the toggle.

  • Opportunities are made up easier than losses. I've repeated that to myself seventeen times since my AIG (AIG) order was fumbled.

  • The homebuilders have been better bid since the opening gun.

  • NYSE internals remain 3:1 negative.

  • I truly thought that sleepless nights and round-the-clock efforts would abate when I stepped down from my $400 million fund. Truth is, I've never worked harder in my life.

  • Whatever it takes, right? Even if that means five times the effort for half the gains.

  • Other than Merrill (MER), who is exposed to Lehman Brothers (LEH) counter-party risk? It's not a single answer--that's the devil of derivative dominoes, they fragment and spread in multiple directions.

  • One more thing--where, pray tell, is the consortium of banks coming up with $70 billion dollars? I understand that it's a function of "need" but I'm asking the question through the lens of supply/demand.

  • Lot's going on, lemme get this out so I can shift my attention to the next pile of "to do's." Deep breath, Minyans, to get through this we must go through this.

East is East and West is West, and never the Twain Shall Meet... - 12:31 pm

  • Mark Twain once said that history doesn't always repeat but it often rhymes. Along those lines, the comparison chart that Pepe posted is required reading for all Minyans.

  • As long as we're passing around snaps, Minyan Peter makes an excellent point regarding upcoming communication from confused Lehman Brothers (LEH) counter-parties.

  • Mother? Not Mother! No, I'm not talking about this. I'm talking about Mother Morgan (MS). While the rest of the sector attempts to shake would be tacklers, the esteemed broker is quietly down 20%.

  • I say quietly as I haven't heard anyone talk about it. When Morgan Stanley loses a fifth of its value and it's not on any radar, you know there's a lot vying for mindshare in the market.

  • Are you ready for Festivus? I sure as sham am!

  • What have I done since my most frustrating morning miss in AIG (AIG)? Not a whole heckuva lot (as far as trading is concerned). That was the easy trade and I learned a long time ago that trying to make up for lost ground is a recipe for getting buried beneath it.

  • Another conference call? Hit me again Ike, and this time put some STANK on it.

  • Deep breaths, Mon Frere, and leave emotions for weddings and funerals.


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