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Answers I Really Wanna Know: Banks At Critical Crossroads

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Financials look for Turnaround Tuesday.

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  • Why do I giggle every time someone says "crack spreads?"

  • Was yesterday's action in Mother Morgan (MS) (-2%), Lehman (LEH) (-4%), Fannie (FNM) (-9%) and Freddie (FRE) (-6%) - along with a redheaded Grandma Goldman (GS) - a stealth wink that Turnaround Tuesday was waiting in the wings?

  • Particularly given that the S&P 500 financial index is up 16% from last Monday's low?

  • Don't you know that since the bear market began in the financials, we've seen two major rallies measuring 13% (December '07) and 16% (January '08) that eventually faded to fresh lows?

  • Speaking of falling and trying to get up, have you seen the technical juncture at which the most important stock in the world currently sits?

  • Hasn't President Tyler been particularly frisky the last few weeks?

  • Do you remember that scene at the end of Animal House when the girl flies through the window, lands on the little boy's bed and he looks up to say "Thank you God"?

  • Can I share that those exact words came out of my mouth this morning when I was walking to work this morning and a pallet of Haagen Daz ice cream fell out of a truck and landed near my feet?

  • While the rally can surely continue-perhaps into double secret resistance at S&P 1405 and DJIA 12,800-have you ever seen so many people quickly switch from grizzly bears to charging bulls?

  • When Old Mother Hubbard drops another slew of shoes, won't the reaction to that news speak volumes?

  • Speaking of which, did you see that JP Morgan (JPM) expects another $5 billion in write-downs at Merrill Lynch (MER)?

  • The feature article in today's Wall Street Journal is focused on the wave of foreclosures driving prices lower and luring buyers?

  • That's one reason to be optimistic, eh?

  • Have YOU registered to win two free tickets to the NCAA Championship game courtesy of Minyanville?

  • Why am I so much better at recovering fumbles in the red zone (market cusps) versus making hay between the twenties?

  • If you were choking on exposure into the abyss, have you used the lift to readjust your risk?

  • Do you see that the VXO was off 8% yesterday and is edging back into a red zone of its own?

  • Is it possible that I'm already excited for this summer's Petty show?

  • How will quarter end manifest through buying the winners and purging the sinners?

  • Was yesterday's bond volatility a sign that asset alligators have been shuffling their craws?

  • Can you imagine how much the "negative convexity" traders at Fannie and Freddie are getting whipped around?

  • What, you don't know what negative convexity is?

  • Sounds karma sutra, huh?

  • While corporate bond spreads are still at a very high level, how many credit traders are still leaning short?

  • If spreads continue to narrow, doesn't the equity melt up have room to run?

  • That's the biggest IF we've ever seen, eh?


R.P.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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