Random Thoughts: The Trap Door in Crude
Bids in oil were disappearing.
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There is a difference between legitimate economic growth and credit-fed consumption. Keep that in mind when you’re talking about the retailers.
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In the interest of communicating my stylistic approach, I peeled out of the lion’s share of Schlumberger (into the $4 downside reversal) as I rotate risk and squirrel some acorns. Still there in Halliburton, much to Dick Cheney’s chagrin.
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Too big too fail? Maybe. Too big to nationalize? No Siree Bob… patiently watch and you’ll see a saga unfold that currently seems inconceivable!
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We always talk about how the retest of an acne level (breakout point) as the Textbook Technical zone with which to accumulate exposure. After yesterday's Pop & Drop, the tape held precisely at S&P 1405, NDX 2000, Russell 735 and (near) INDU 12800.
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There is real risk to this tape (although that doesn't mean it's today's business). I'll offer once again, however, that IF Hoofy can put some distance between him and those levels, back-to-back trap doors might be too “easy.”

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I'm not playing the upside, per se—I have some put positions (SLB, HAL and Apple are the movers du jour), core longs (McClatchy (MNI), Gannett (GCI)) and Plenty O’ Powder (I wonder if he knows Patio Furniture?). I'm not opposed to "make it to take it" rentals if they present themselves but I haven't squeezed those triggers yet.
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So Big Ben strenuously urges banks to raise capital. I wonder if he can handle the truth about how dilutive (deflationary) that continued course of action will be.
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Ya ever see the ESPN segments called "Miked up?" Take that to the next level and you'll get a sense of what this week—and my life going forward—is all about. I told the good folks at FOX Business that if we're gonna do Minyanville Buzz & Banter TV (every day at 11:38 and from 3-4 EST), I'm going to speak freely from the gut. Yesterday, when I opined that the tape has more swings than a Hedonism Vacation, I think they sorta understood what I meant!
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R.P.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.
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