You Know The Banking System's Unsound When...
By Mike Mish Shedlock Jul 23, 2008 12:00 pm
25 signs of insolvency.
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Paulson appears on Face the Nation and says "Our banking system is a safe and a sound one." If the banking system were sound, everyone would know it (or at least believe it). There'd be no need to say it.
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Paulson says the growing number of troubled banks "is a very manageable situation." Here's the reality: There are 90 banks on the list of problem banks. Indymac wasn't one of them - until a month before it collapsed. How many other banks will magically appear on the list a month before they collapse?
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In a Northern Rock moment, depositors at Indymac pull out their cash. Police had to be called in to ensure order.
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Washington Mutual (WM), another troubled bank, refused to honor Indymac cashier's checks. It's ironic that customers pulled insured deposits out of Indymac after it went into receivership. It's also ironic that they would then want to deposit those funds in Washington Mutual - the last place one would want to put them.
WaMu eventually decided it would take those checks, but with an 8-week hold. Will Washington Mutual even be around 8 weeks from now? -
Paulson asked for "Congressional authority to buy unlimited stakes in and lend to Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE)" just days after saying "Financial institutions must be allowed to fail." Paulson's obviously reporting from the 5th dimension; only in some alternate universe would his statements make sense.
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Former Fed Governor William Poole says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac losses make them insolvent.
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Paulson says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are "essential" because they represent the only "functioning" part of the home loan market. The firms own or guarantee about half of the $12 trillion in U.S. mortgages. Is it possible to have a sound banking system when the only "functioning" part of the mortgage market is insolvent?
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Bernanke testified before Congress on monetary policy, but didn't comment on either money supply or interest rates. Nowhere in his testimony did he even mention the word "money." The only time "interest rate" appeared was in relation to consumer credit card rates. How can you have any reasonable economic policy when the Fed chairman is deathly scared of interest rates and the money supply?
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The SEC issued an order to protect those most responsible for naked short selling. As long as the investment banks and brokers were making money, naked shorting was fine and dandy. However, when the bears began using the tactic against the big financials, the existing regulation is suddenly selectively enforced, and with a vengeance.
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The Fed takes emergency actions twice during options expirations week with regard to the discount window and rate cuts.
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The SEC takes emergency action during options expirations week regarding short sales.
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The Fed has implemented an alphabet soup of pawnshop lending facilities, whereby the Fed accepts garbage as collateral in exchange for Treasury bonds. Those new Fed lending facilities are called the Term Auction Facility (TAF), the Term Security Lending Facility (TSLF), and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF).
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Citigroup (C), Lehman (LEH), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Merrill Lynch (MER) all have a huge percentage of Level-3 assets. Level 3 assets are commonly known as "marked to fantasy" assets. In other words, the value of those assets is significantly if not ridiculously overvalued in comparison to what they'd fetch on the open market.
It's debatable if any of the above firms will survive in their present form. Some may not survive in any form. -
Bernanke openly solicits private equity firms to invest in banks. Is it even remotely normal for a Fed Chairman to undertake such an action?
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Bear Stearns was taken over by JPMorgan (JPM) days after assuring investors that it had plenty of capital. Fears are high that Lehman will suffer the same fate. Worse still, the Fed was forced to guarantee the shotgun marriage between Bear Stearns and JPMorgan by providing as much as $30 billion in capital. JPMorgan is responsible for only the first $500 million. Taxpayers are on the hook for the rest.
Was this a legal action for the Fed to take? Does the Fed care? -
Citigroup needed a cash injection from Abu Dhabi and a second one from elsewhere. After announcing it wouldn't need more capital, it's raising still more. The latest news: Citigroup will sell $500 billion in assets. To who? At what price?
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Merrill Lynch raised $6.6 billion in capital from Kuwait and Japan, announced it didn't need to raise anymore - then raised still more capital just a few weeks later.
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Morgan Stanley sold a 9.9% equity stake to China International. CEO John Mack made a show of not taking his bonus. How generous. Morgan Stanley fell from $72 to $37. Does CEO John Mack deserve a paycheck at all?
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Bank of America agreed to take over Countywide Financial and twice insisted that Countrywide will add profits. Inquiring minds ask: "How the hell can Countrywide add to Bank of America earnings?" Here's how: Bank of America just announced it won't guarantee $38.1 billion in Countrywide debt. Questions over "fraudulent conveyance" are now surfacing.
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Washington Mutual agreed to a death spiral cash infusion of $7 billion and accepted an offer of $7.85 when the stock was over $13. WaMu has since plummeted from $40 to a price near $5 after a huge rally.
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Shares of Ambac (ABK) fell from $90 to $2.50. Shared of MBIA (MBI) fell from $70 to $5. Sadly, the top three rating agencies kept their rating on the pair at AAA nearly all the way down.
No one can believe anything the government sponsored rating agencies say. -
In a set of moves that looked like panic, the Fed slashed interest rates from 5.25% to 2%. This was the fastest, steepest drop on record. Ironically, Bernanke spoke of inflation concerns the whole way down. The Chairman is clearly unable to tell the truth. He doesn't have to - actions speak louder than words.
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FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said the FDIC is looking for ways to shore up its depleted deposit fund, including charging higher premiums on riskier brokered deposits.
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There's roughly $6.84 trillion in bank deposits, of which $2.60 trillion is uninsured. There's only $53 billion in FDIC insurance to cover $6.84 trillion in bank deposits. Indymac alone will eat up roughly $8 billion of that.
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Of the $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits, the total cash on hand at banks is a mere $273.7 Billion. Where's the rest of the loot? The answer is: In off-balance-sheet SIVs, imploding commercial real estate deals, Alt-A liar loans, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, toggle bonds (where, amazingly, debt's paid back with more debt) and in all sorts of other silly (and arguably fraudulent) financial wizardry schemes that have bank and brokerage firms leveraged at 30 to 1 or more. Those loans can't be paid back.
And what can't be paid back will be defaulted on. If you didn't know it before, you do now: The entire US banking system is insolvent.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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Reply
2008-07-23 11:17:31
Dirt cheap?
"can't believe banks are stopping making loans on property right now. The property is dirt cheap"
Maybe property isn't really dirt cheap. It may only look that way for now. Soon it may be REAL Dirt CHEAP. If average wages, real wages, are on the decline then the average home price will need to drop that much more. Things are going to change. The party lights are dimming. The tab needs to be paid and reality will be setting in... Someone will have to take the bath on real estate.
Maybe property isn't really dirt cheap. It may only look that way for now. Soon it may be REAL Dirt CHEAP. If average wages, real wages, are on the decline then the average home price will need to drop that much more. Things are going to change. The party lights are dimming. The tab needs to be paid and reality will be setting in... Someone will have to take the bath on real estate.
2008-07-23 12:20:44
The solution to this problem is not impossible we need to return value to the housing market. Ok maybe its impossible
Possible solutions
Immigration if we let all the mexicans come here that want too and let them work they will have money and rent or buy low income property.
THen people invested in low income property will buy middle income property.
then people invested in middle income property will be able to buy high income property.
Housing saved.
Trickle up economics Reagan would approve.
I can't believe banks are stopping making loans on property right now. The property is dirt cheap if they required 10% down this would be the safest investment going. Maybe Microsoft should use some of its 40billion it was about to waste on Yahoo and get into home finance. They can do it over the computer if it will make them more comfortable.
Possible solutions
Immigration if we let all the mexicans come here that want too and let them work they will have money and rent or buy low income property.
THen people invested in low income property will buy middle income property.
then people invested in middle income property will be able to buy high income property.
Housing saved.
Trickle up economics Reagan would approve.
I can't believe banks are stopping making loans on property right now. The property is dirt cheap if they required 10% down this would be the safest investment going. Maybe Microsoft should use some of its 40billion it was about to waste on Yahoo and get into home finance. They can do it over the computer if it will make them more comfortable.
2008-07-23 12:23:11
Does the bank of China offer toasters with newly opened checking accounts?
2008-07-23 12:51:07
Cash on hand
I'm just curious about point #25. What %age of deposits SHOULD a bank hold as cash on hand? After all they make money by lending the money out, not by sitting on it. On the face of it, having only 4% of deposits sitting around doesn't seem unreasonable.
A little history would be useful here.
A little history would be useful here.
2008-07-23 12:51:20
Sell US Citizenships
Why not sell US Citizenships--since we've been living under an unconstitutional version of US Government, there's no reason to "put on the dog" with respect to the value of each US citizenship, either.
2008-07-23 13:18:56
Sell US Citizenships
Use a new form of the "Canadian model". After the fall of Hong Kong, Canada offered permanent green cards for $200,00 if invested in a business. We should do the same for $250,000 (inflation after all!) if someone buys bank common stocks with a five year lock out. There's always a deal to be made somewhere. Mish is right but, of course, the Fed will print and inflate their way out of insovency. Citizens, get ready for a lower cost of living.
2008-07-23 13:51:24
Where is your Money?
Mike:
Given your rather bleak outlook on the US banking system - and I agree with most if not all of your points - where are you putting your money right now? US dollars under the mattress? Better yet, Euros under the mattress?
Just curious as to best defend against the potential failure of the US banking system as we know it.
Given your rather bleak outlook on the US banking system - and I agree with most if not all of your points - where are you putting your money right now? US dollars under the mattress? Better yet, Euros under the mattress?
Just curious as to best defend against the potential failure of the US banking system as we know it.
2008-07-23 15:20:31
Irresponsible article
This article is irresponsible. Unfortunately it will only scare people into questioning the credibility of the financial system and result in a self-fulfilling prophecy. Every idiot knows that a bank does not keep all its deposits in cash otherwise they would not be able to pay the depositor interest. They must be lent out and at given point of time, cash will only form a small portion of their balance sheet. Also with regards to the FDIC issue, it is clear that the govt. is the guarantor of last resort and irrespective of what are the assets with FDIC, should the FDIC be insolvent, the U.S. government can always print money and save the financial institutions. A sincere request to the original author to please desist from posting such irresponsible stupid articles and not induce a bank run.
2008-07-23 15:23:33
10 Year Treasuries are declining
I have been watching the 10 year T-bill like a hawk. It is declining. Anyone have any intelligence as to what is happening with 10 year treasuries?
Thanks, Gary
Thanks, Gary
2008-07-23 15:26:30
Irresponsible article
Bagchi, the truth is not irresponsible. Those who refuse to see the truth such as yourself are irresponsible. This is more than banks lending out money to pay interest in case you have not been paying attention. Do your homework on CDOs and SIVs.
Your comment on FDIC and the government being guarantor of last resort is also quite "stupid". They can print money and save the institutions? Out of thin air, yes. But if you bankrupt the middle class because your printing lead to large scale inflation where does the value of that currency come from then? The taxpayer is the last resort, to think otherwise is stupid and short sighted. A bankrupted taxpayer will pay how much?
Your comment on FDIC and the government being guarantor of last resort is also quite "stupid". They can print money and save the institutions? Out of thin air, yes. But if you bankrupt the middle class because your printing lead to large scale inflation where does the value of that currency come from then? The taxpayer is the last resort, to think otherwise is stupid and short sighted. A bankrupted taxpayer will pay how much?
2008-07-23 15:56:20
10 Year Treasuries are declining
I think the long bond is also declining. Inflation fears would seem to be plausible, which suggests that the recent pullback in oil may be expected to be short-lived by the bond crowd.
My $0.02.
My $0.02.
2008-07-23 15:59:42
Irresponsible article?
You take exception with 2 bullets out of 25 and brand the article irresponsible? I think it is irresponsible not to consider all available facts when investing. Some facts are uncomfortable. Some facts reduce confidence in the system. Looking at our Congress reduces my confidence in the system, and don't get me started on the President. We have systemic problems which will, inevitably, exact a price. Reasonable people can ask "How high a price?" and "When?" without being panic mongers.
2008-07-23 16:34:04
Irresponsible article
You've got to be kidding. It is an excellent article!
I'm joining the Buzz and Bantor so that I can gain even more market information, education, and insights. "Earn what you learn." Isn't that mantra of today? Well, we are all about to get a great education. I've been following the web site for the last year to see what it is all about. The votes are in. Thank goodness for Minyanville. A wealth of information. Keep up the good work Professor!
Gary
I'm joining the Buzz and Bantor so that I can gain even more market information, education, and insights. "Earn what you learn." Isn't that mantra of today? Well, we are all about to get a great education. I've been following the web site for the last year to see what it is all about. The votes are in. Thank goodness for Minyanville. A wealth of information. Keep up the good work Professor!
Gary
2008-07-23 16:34:32
Where is your Money?
I also want to ask this question. It is possible to find the few safest banks but is that even safe? Physical gold? here's a good question, what if I have the GLD ETF and banks go busty? Let's say inflation gets nastier and my ETF goes bananas, and my bank closes its doors, but I have this nice ETF in my brokerage account. The brokerage will surely have exposure to banks, I suppose, but I have an exchange traded security. Am I safe?
2008-07-23 16:58:13
Irresponsible article
Does any one really think s/he can profit from the comments which have been made in this article? Financial stocks are bad so don't hold them. Cash is bad because the banks in which you are holding them might go bust. Surely the author doesn't want us to hold international stocks or debt- after all the inflation is killing the real interest rate on debt. If not any of these, then pray where should we hold our money?
As I said, this article is all doom-and-gloom and takes on a far too cynical tone than warranted by the reality. Even under these admittedly tough times, the U.S. economy has grown in the last two quarters.
As I said, this article is all doom-and-gloom and takes on a far too cynical tone than warranted by the reality. Even under these admittedly tough times, the U.S. economy has grown in the last two quarters.
2008-07-23 17:14:14
Where is your Money?
I'm worried about this as well. What if the companies running the ETF's don't have all the gold that their price would suggest? Are our shares of GLD or SLV really going to be redeemable in actual gold or silver if things got bad enough? Another reason I've been buying actual silver bullion. Gold is out of my price range.
2008-07-23 17:24:33
Irresponsible article
Information in all of its forms is what we all want...in up markets and down markets. You can't silence the flow of information during a down market just because it may cause the market to go lower...the market is much bigger than you think. The conversation taking place within this forum is, I am sure, already taking place in numerous other forums. Why silence Minyanville? Your question: "Where should we hold our money?" The answer to that question is worth how much to you? I'm sorry to be answering a question with a question. But I think you see my point. Keep the information flowing and I will decide what to do, what is best for me. But do not stop the information, in all of its forms. That would be very bad. Best regards, Gary
2008-07-23 17:51:00
Responsible article
Macroeconomic information is useful. Most of my investment money is in my 401(k) where I have limited trades. Therefore I can only attempt to play macro trends. By reading Prof. Shedlock, Prof. Sedaca, and others I have gained useful information which has helped me avoid losses this year.
Which reminds me; thanks, Prof. Shedlock, for the effort you expend keeping us all informed of the games being played keeping the system alive.
Which reminds me; thanks, Prof. Shedlock, for the effort you expend keeping us all informed of the games being played keeping the system alive.
2008-07-23 18:36:28
Irresponsible article
Hey Suthirta,
It is good to see a citizen able to take a hint from the autorities. The naked shorts should be only for oil, the speculations only for financials and all the rumors should be good. Is this responsible enough for you?
It is good to see a citizen able to take a hint from the autorities. The naked shorts should be only for oil, the speculations only for financials and all the rumors should be good. Is this responsible enough for you?
2008-07-23 21:21:06
Where to put your money...
Avoid Blind Faith actions. These are the times of old wisdom and straightforward honesty. Put your money in what you know, and what you know to be true. You can't know what is true or not if it is via long distance or someone else's say so. Even credentialed advisers have to justify their advice. Taking their word without such justification is no better than expecting your tens to turn magically into twenties (the government way).
Buy less, buy local. Get to know your neighbors so they can watch your back. These are all the things that the banks should have heeded, but convinced themselves that risk is just another item on a spreadsheet, and didn't check where the number came from.
Actions taken based on blind faith are evil. Hiding information is the practice of evildoers. If the banks are shaky, hiding the information won't make them sound.
Buy less, buy local. Get to know your neighbors so they can watch your back. These are all the things that the banks should have heeded, but convinced themselves that risk is just another item on a spreadsheet, and didn't check where the number came from.
Actions taken based on blind faith are evil. Hiding information is the practice of evildoers. If the banks are shaky, hiding the information won't make them sound.
2008-07-23 21:32:57
Where is your Money?
My point isn't whether I can actually redeem in bullion, my question is, is my GLD dough safe if banks start to close their doors or will the brokerage firm I hold them at at risk of the same failure therefore jeopardizing my ability to access my profits should such occur?
2008-07-23 21:52:13
Irresponsible article
I have profited from comments made from the author. Can say the article since it was only posted recently. But the sentiment is where I was looking. I have not been invested in financials so that helped me profit by me not losing money.
2008-07-23 22:41:23
History Rewind...
The thing is, our situation has never appeared before in history. This is our first time.
2008-07-24 10:43:35
Sell US Citizenships
Right - I think I should be allowed to sell mine back and use the proceeds to move to Switzerland! Not sure I want to be here after the next election anyway.
2008-07-24 11:26:45
Balance?
Before reading any of Shedlock's articles, I already know two things:
1) I will learn something useful
2) The article will be heavily biased towards worst case scenario
The article is titled "You Know The Banking System's Unsound When..." and the points supports that. However, didn't we all already KNOW that the bank system is unsound? The useful question is: will it get better or worse? From that perspective, many of the points (banks raising capital, FED cutting interest rates) - although indicative of a bad situation - are actually good news.
As Tood reminded us today: "Believe it—or not—just see both sides. Always see both sides. "
1) I will learn something useful
2) The article will be heavily biased towards worst case scenario
The article is titled "You Know The Banking System's Unsound When..." and the points supports that. However, didn't we all already KNOW that the bank system is unsound? The useful question is: will it get better or worse? From that perspective, many of the points (banks raising capital, FED cutting interest rates) - although indicative of a bad situation - are actually good news.
As Tood reminded us today: "Believe it—or not—just see both sides. Always see both sides. "
2008-07-26 01:53:36
Where is your Money?
Safest WOULD NOT be Gold ETF--this is what is known as "paper gold". (Good luck ever collecting on your investment, once the US Govt gets back into its notorious confiscation mode). Presumably, allocated physical metal held outside the US (Switzerland has a history of fair treatment of investors, yet it suddenly appears that US investors now are limited to "international" accounts with certain Swiss institutions, only) would be safer. What happens, once Obama and Pelosi decide that all "collectibles" owned by Americans are to be coughed up/repatriated, immediately, to fix Hank and Ben's mess? Surely you wouldn't expect any privacy, once these statespeople have established a 100% tax rate on this asset class. Smart people advise keeping such assets in your own physical possession--this would provide for a replay of what occurred during the Great Depression. (Expect Obama and Pelosi to dictate that your funds be invested in US Treasuries, or in Fanny/Freddie paper).
Where is your money? With you...safely relocated somewhere in the world where the rule of law is actually respected.
Where is your money? With you...safely relocated somewhere in the world where the rule of law is actually respected.
2008-07-26 15:19:20
Irresponsible article
Andrei, I think you set the rules straight for our friend Sutirtha, and you did it with great humor. No one makes competent decisions in a vacuum, we need Mish and everyone like him that will ferret out the truth and keep it visible for us. Our friend Sutirtha may still have his economics text spread out before him and be wondering which chapter contains the truths set forth in Minyanville. I know that this forum is prized for its candor and civility, but I can't resist asking this question, "Sutirtha, do you think it is somehow noble to be the last one to discover a fact of financial life?" "If that is the case, most of the newspapers in this country would love to lead you to a life of nobility." Welcome to the 'Ville. WB in KC
2008-07-26 15:37:10
Toasters?
Brad, visualize a banquet table with guests holding their champaign glasses at arms length, and the caption of the picture is, "The 'toasters' are giving away free banks!" Only in the 21st Century would that pun make any sense. Minyan Walt.
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