Minyan Playbook Into Tomorrow's "Surprise" Rate Cut
How to play the tape into expiration Friday...
Let's get serious, serious. I wanna get serious. Let's get into serious.
Settle down, Olivia, I'm not talking to you. I'm talking to ye faithful as it's time to whip this thing out. No, not that , this! The playbook thing. Yeah, that's the ticket.
OK, so here's the dilieo. We've been eyeing DJIA 12,000 (on a vacuum from DJIA 12,800), along with the "shocker of all shocker" rate cuts tomorrow morning in front of expiration. I think it happens, and I think we'll lift if only for a spell.
What I've been wrestling with is degree of impact. For instance, I could offer that we would see a 10% lift in some beaten down issues but heck, that would basically recapture today's move in Merrill (MER). MERRILL! I mean, we're not talking Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) here, we're talking Merrill Lynch (and you can put pretty much any other major financial institution in it's place).
The other thing I'm wresting with is time. Will we Snap into the bell in anticipation of that move? And, if we don't get it, is the stage set for Black Friday? While nobody is bigger than the market, I don't think the Fed can afford to sit on their hands. They will--and should, at this point--cut and hope against hope that the market doesn't fold in their face. They only have so many bullets and the last one, as we're apt to say, will be pointed inward.
So call me a buyer into this muck and please do so with scrunched eyebrows. I got the same inquisitive looks when I was bearish into all-time highs (October) and, under the "sell hope and buy despair" mantra, that's exactly how I like to roll. I don't think we're anywhere close to THE low, I'm just willing to risk some bank for a quick upside upside schnitz.
Hit me again Ike, and this time put some STANK on it!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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