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Minyan Playbook Into Tomorrow's "Surprise" Rate Cut

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How to play the tape into expiration Friday...

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Let's get serious, serious. I wanna get serious. Let's get into serious.


Settle down, Olivia, I'm not talking to you. I'm talking to ye faithful as it's time to whip this thing out. No, not that , this! The playbook thing. Yeah, that's the ticket.

OK, so here's the dilieo. We've been eyeing DJIA 12,000 (on a vacuum from DJIA 12,800), along with the "shocker of all shocker" rate cuts tomorrow morning in front of expiration. I think it happens, and I think we'll lift if only for a spell.

What I've been wrestling with is degree of impact. For instance, I could offer that we would see a 10% lift in some beaten down issues but heck, that would basically recapture today's move in Merrill (MER). MERRILL! I mean, we're not talking Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) here, we're talking Merrill Lynch (and you can put pretty much any other major financial institution in it's place).

The other thing I'm wresting with is time. Will we Snap into the bell in anticipation of that move? And, if we don't get it, is the stage set for Black Friday? While nobody is bigger than the market, I don't think the Fed can afford to sit on their hands. They will--and should, at this point--cut and hope against hope that the market doesn't fold in their face. They only have so many bullets and the last one, as we're apt to say, will be pointed inward.

So call me a buyer into this muck and please do so with scrunched eyebrows. I got the same inquisitive looks when I was bearish into all-time highs (October) and, under the "sell hope and buy despair" mantra, that's exactly how I like to roll. I don't think we're anywhere close to THE low, I'm just willing to risk some bank for a quick upside upside schnitz.

Hit me again Ike, and this time put some STANK on it!

R.P.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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