Random Toughts: Winnie the Pooh!
So you wanted to be a trader, eh?
Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Was That A Short-Term Low?, The Jedi Mind Trick and Fists and Docs!
How Would Andy Dufresne Trade This Tape? - 12:24 pm
- I mean, seriously, what's it gonna take (other than a few thousand points)?
- Or is it a matter of semantics at this point?
- Did anyone catch the Al Davis Lane Kiffin meeting last week?
- Doesn't Christopher Walken have to play Big Al in the re-release?
- Under the Warren Buffett-Peter Lynch methodology, shouldn't I buy Wyeth (WYE) (Advil) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) (Tums)?
- Are you really gonna be a wise guy and throw Pfizer (PFE) in the mix?
- Does Hoofy have to get his groove on before redemption notices hit trading desks?
- Are we still allowed to call them trading desks?
- How thin is it gonna be on Thursday on Yom Kippur? (Easy fast for all y'all observing by the way.)
- To Pepe's point, could the conceivable motivation of the FDIC be to rescue Citigroup (C) rather than Wachovia (WB)?
- Is this the Shawshank Tape?
- In other words, will we have to crawl to the recovery through five hundred yards of schvitz smelling foulness we can't even imagine (or we don't want to)?
- Five hundred yards... that's the length of five football fields, just shy of half a mile?
- I know--we should be so lucky, right?
Winnie the Pooh! - 1:34 pm
So you wanted to be a trader, eh? I've been asking myself that question lately as it feels like we've brought a knife to a gun fight.
While I entered my metaphorical bull costume (two legs, or 50% conviction) in and around S&P 1045, it feels as if I'm swimming against the tide. Perhaps that's a good sign (the best fades are the toughest fades) or maybe I'm hoping. It's a thin line, I'll tell ya, but the onus is on us to exercise discipline over conviction.
Some top line vibes:
- While yesterday was "the diaper effect" for most people, I'm finding today's tape to be entirely more Depend-able.
- There are two forces in play--structural and psychological. While global governments are trying to stem contagion in the former, the latter matter is amorphous.
- Oh yeah, it's earnings season. Don't expect anything "good" but keep in mind that news is always best at a top and worst at a bottom.
- As John Maynard Keynes used to say, markets can stay irrational longer than most people can remain solvent.
- IF (big if) Hoofy can hold 'em in here, there will be chatter of a (constructive) higher low. That would sync nicely with the VXO "panic" high at 70 yesterday (currently VXO 57, -4%) but this discussion will remain fluid.
- Absent a crash--which remains plausible given the state of the credit markets--I like what I own (Weatherford (WFT), Transocean (RIG), QLD, OSX) and have the powder to add lower, should I choose to do so.
- Nobody is smarter than the market. We're simply pawns in the greater game.
- Away from the obvious fly that is Bank America (BAC) (and Merrill Lynch (MER)), Mother Morgan (MS) (-23%) stands out in the poke of the piggies.
- As if we need one more thing to look at, notice that the bacon is shakin' at BKX 60 once again.
- It's "Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur" right?
- If you're diggin' the 'Ville, lock your spot for the holiday trot and belly up with us at the December 4th Festivus. Regardless of how the next 10% plays out, giving back to the kids--and sharing some hugs and handshakes with you community--is a profitable endeavor.
- Whew, Ben Bernanke is speaking. And I was worried.
- Cue the REM and take a deep breath. This too, shall pass.
- As always, I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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