Five Things: The Myth of The Crisis

By Kevin Depew Sep 14, 2009 8:00 pm
One year later, the myths persist...
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"We will not go back to the days of reckless behavior and unchecked excess."
- President Barack Obama, speaking on "Financial Rescue and Reform" at Federal Hall in New York City, Sep. 14, 2009

"That's it; my days of reckless behavior and unchecked excess are over."
- Kevin Depew, speaking early in the morning to no one in particular on hundreds of separate occasions.

Not many Americans know this, but Wall Street is actually just a dead-end corridor of 1,500 feet carved like a small notch into the side of lower Manhattan. One end is capped by the East River, the other by Trinity Church. The dark, narrow length between is crowded by tall, stone buildings that send down shadows of such fierce certitude that you're sure no ray of sunlight has ever once dared to intrude; like some kind of fiscal Stonehenge.

It's possible to escape these shadows by no fewer than half a dozen side streets and alley openings, but there's no shaking the creeping uneasiness that something you can't quite comprehend is taking place all around you.

Of course, what passes for escape is nothing more than silent complicity. True deliverance from Wall Street comes only two ways -- the river or the church.

It's just past noon on a crystalline Monday in New York City, and even as he's standing inside Federal Hall on Wall Street and Nassau, nearer the church than the river,  it's not quite clear President Barack Obama grasps this crucial point. The occasion is to mark the one-year anniversary of The Crisis, an ill-defined, loose-fitting moment that no one, not even the president, seems to be able to pin down.

The Wall Street Journal this morning neatly packaged everything into one box: The Crisis, a Year Later. Similarly, the New York Times is running with Financial Crisis: One Year Later. The Washington Post is Taking Stock.

And yet, paging through all these stories -- digital pile after digital pile of them -- it's still unclear what The Crisis means. No one even knows what tense to use when writing about it because no one is really sure if it's over, let alone when it started. As a result, we've resorted to creating a number of extraordinary myths to help explain to ourselves what has happened.

Five Myths of The Crisis

One: The Anniversary.

Before we get to The Anniversary itself, let's figure out what is The Crisis? Is it Lehman's collapse? Is it toxic mortgages? Is it housing? Is it lending? Is it credit? Is it debt? Is it regulation? Is it consumption? Is it financial engineering? The answer is, yes. It's all of those things.

And so this anniversary is really no anniversary at all; we're commemorating the wrong thing. In fact, the anniversary of The Crisis is one of the myths we've created to help explain to ourselves what it is that's happened -- ironically, while we go about doing more of the very things that caused it to happen in the first place.

This is not to say that the collapse of Lehman Brother wasn't a significant event. It was. But it was a culminating crash of a wave that had been building for years, which brings us to one of the more widely perpetuated myths from no less of a source than the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Two: It all began with subprime lending.

In a speech delivered before the London School of Economics last January, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke outlined a subtly more in-depth and critical view of the origins of The Crisis than anything he had publicly stated previously.

According to Bernanke, although the subprime debacle triggered the crisis, the developments in the US mortgage market "were only one aspect of a much larger and more encompassing credit boom whose impact transcended the mortgage market to affect many other forms of credit." Indeed.

This view further explicates and builds on the one he first stated before the Economic Club of New York in October 2007. At that time, Bernanke, like many public finance officials, had just spent months and months prior to October 2007 describing the financial crisis as "well contained" to subprime lending; an isolated outlier of what, at that time, were routinely accepted as perfectly normal credit market conditions. Of course, by January of this year, Bernanke recognized it was far deeper than that.

In January, Bernanke admitted that the negative aspects of this "more encompassing credit boom" involved "widespread declines in underwriting standards, breakdowns in lending oversight by investors and rating agencies, increased reliance on complex and opaque credit instruments that proved fragile under stress, and unusually low compensation for risk-taking."

Naturally, Bernanke didn't take the next step and acknowledge that the Fed itself was a co-conspirator in the credit orgy, but at least he did back away from the earlier assertion that everything somehow hinged on subprime lending.

The reality is that subprime lending was the inevitable consequence of The Crisis, not the cause of it.  
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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(28)
2009-09-14 20:36:33
Kevin
As always I enjoyed your article.The Stonehenge comment caught my eye as for some weird reason I have it as wallpaper on a computer I use.Goodluck,JT
2009-09-14 21:59:46
it's over, it's just beginning -
very very powerful piece, thank you kevin

today i came to the resolution that if our markets, economy, and nation, have come to the point where, what matters is that the market will keep rallying -

...not because of increasing profits and production, not because of breaking innovative technology tempting us with a new future, but -

...because people with other people's money to manage didn't want to have their careers defined or limited for having been cautious -

then, there is no market...

and our president must soon choose if he will lead us the people -

or sustain an illusion most of us are increasingly letting simply soar into the night, burst, then dim....
2009-09-15 00:49:06
This post was on the small bank article
How could we let this happen? It should be the other way around.The smallest banks should've received the bailouts ,not the largest banks.Actually no bank should receive a "bailout' ONLY "DIP" funding. The common should have been cut to zero and given long term out of the money warrants, The preferreds the same as common but better warrant terms.The debt holders should be left with mitigating their losses.The government funding was badly needed so the system didn't collapse,but it was misallocated.We needed the government guarantees but not with a Bank of America logo on it. These institutions should've been reorganized with players that brought in new capital after the losses were "recorded". Too big to fail is not in the book economics 101 or any other books. Hearing Cramer's praise of the work that Ben,Timmy and company have done ,made me laugh nervously.If we had taken the proper medicine , instead of the hair of the dog,we would be positioned on a much firmer footing now.Instead of hanging on every economic report like it's going to trigger a new major market trend, we'd be confidently moving forward knowing where we are going(with justification).We wouldn't have this nagging ever present fear of losing our status as the world's reseve currency. As we stand ,there are way too many things hidden behind the curtain.Because we didn't do it right the first time means it will be even nastier tasting medicine the next time. This market move off the bottom is merely the biggest setup of all time.The only question is what will trigger it and what day on the calender.It's too late this round ,the cards have been shuffled and the shoe must play out.
2009-09-15 07:03:50
I'm a big follower and have always loved the philosophical as well as financial insight that you provide. However, this definitely is one of your best! I think that you nailed it with the auto-immune disorder reference!!
2009-09-15 10:47:17
The Myth of The Crisis
As usual, an excellent article. I guess we can only add that as you aptly discussed, the presses ever present need to “name” something so that it then becomes something easily pointed to even though we might still have no idea what where or what that point is, may be just our nature. However, it would seem that despite all of the who did what and when, all we really need to do is go back to 1980's and the supply side economic monster to really see the birth of this disaster. Now that was letting the fox into the hen house! When we have had a Fed that has encouraged that policy for 30 years, can we expect less than what we have now?
2009-09-15 12:11:32
This post was on the small bank article
Well said. We will continue down this deflationary road as credit is destroyed through declining home values, high leveraged loans, commercial real estate loans, etc. We have not accepted that most people will have a lower standard of living going forward. Savings rates are up for now as individuals try to rebuild damaged retirement funds. We can only monetize our national debt over time and the zombie banks will remain "too big to fail". Unfortunately for everyone, Bush and Obama are wrong in perpetuating this fallacy that goes back to the 1960's. Wall Street firms with the right political connections (Morgan, Goldman, etc.) know the government has always been there to bail them out. After all, they can buy the Senate finance committee every time. And so the bebt grows and the resat of us play defense.
2009-09-15 12:22:10
Classic Depew!

This mixture of literary technique, analogy and economic insight is why I recommend Minyanville.

"Of course, what passes for escape is nothing more than silent complicity. True deliverance from Wall Street comes only two ways -- the river or the church."

Kevin, this is economic poetry!

But this isn't just a function of government. The Fed, the Treasury and the banks can lead us to this cesspool but they can't make us drink. We drink because we don't want to give up on the dream. The dream of something for nothing. The dream that we can have it all if we just hire the right accountant. Simply put, the American Way of Life was unsustainable. I know, I know...this is heresy. Even as I right this the true believers are flocking back to the markets to profess their faith. According to them this 'crisis' isn't about debt or current account defcits or addiction to oil...it is a test of our belief. A test of whether this capitalist nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. Because if God's Chosen People don't DESERVE prsoperity who does? It is our birthright!

This cancer is not only attacking our vital organs...its attacking our immortal souls. And like some sort of capitalist Jehovah Witnesses we don't need no stinking surgery. We have our full faith and credit!


2009-09-15 14:00:48
Dude, the first two quotes almost had me laughing coffee right out my nose. You are one funny s.o.b., and smart as they come. Your articles are awesome and I always look forward to them. I use a lot of your "sound bites" with my clients. Thanks so much, and keep the guidance coming. We all appreciate it. I tell everyone that will listen to log in to Minyanville.
2009-09-15 14:06:41
Dr. Depew
Kevin's awesome assessment reminds me of a Dr. House episode last season "Not Cancer" wherein several recipients of donated organs, all from the same donor, had recently died very suddenly. The initial diagnosis was auto immune, of course this was wrong or else the show would be over in ten minutes. Through some clever inductive reasoning it was found that the organ donor had cancer stem cells, or at least non-functioning cells, that resulted in the donated organs initially appearing fine and giving the patient what turned out to be false hope. Unfortunately, the donated organs were, due to the non-functioning cells, in an extremely weakened state and ultimately failed in a very sudden and irreparable manner - killing the patient. Life imitates art. Pass the vicodin.
2009-09-15 14:20:06
"For the past two centuries, the line separating appearance and reality, truth and illusion, the material and the immaterial, the real and the virtual has been gradually eroding. As new information and networking technologies have rapidly proliferated, the tutored eye has been able discern growing anxiety, doubt, and uncertainty shadowing the frenzied spectacles and accelerating speculation of the era.” - Confidence Games by Mark Taylor

As Professor Depew says, its all a confidence game.

The current administration's efforts to restart the “consumer desires” are akin to trying to bring back a fashion style of clothes which has run its course and is unpopular.

They really are attempting the one of highest forms of social engineering with their various consumer programs. What a lousy way of bringing change – trying to figure out how to get people to buy. Yawn.



2009-09-15 14:39:28
Confidence is an asset, don't forget.
Good insights but don't forget that confidence, both consumer and business, is an asset as well. If even a fraction of the world's 6 billion people (and U.S.'s 300 million) work a little harder and spend a little more, that can pay back a lot of debt. I don't want to sugarcoat things, and we may still have a nasty turn down, but I know many people whose net worth is only down say 10% from its peak, that could mean a better Christmas, more production and slowing unemployment growth.
2009-09-15 15:45:01
Re: Confidence is an asset, don't forget.
Jay - confidence is not an asset unless you can sell it. This is the whole point imho. A debt-based economy consumes real assets in order to produce fictitious ones: mortgages, derivatives... Paper, whose value is a factor of a fleeting confidence. This is how a Ponzi scheme works. But make no mistake, confidence is no asset, but simply a means for tyrants and thieves to work their trade.
2009-09-15 16:14:51
re: Confidence Games
Glad you read that book, Confidence Games. It's an important book, in my humble opinion. Too often we get caught up in overstating the importance of every single thing that happens on Wall Street. CNBC has built an entire network around overstating the drama and important of every bit of market minutia. Dr. Taylor's book helped me step back and consider finance in a larger, more calm context.
2009-09-15 17:59:27
We Have Spiraled Around To The Same Point, But With Lower Earnings.
Pepe,
Great article.
Regarding, "Wait, what do I mean by unfortunately? Well, unfortunately, we're rapidly moving right back to the same place we were before the real issues facing us in The Crisis became apparent."

Ah, "But where is the beef?"

Earnings have been badly, badly hurt. And where is are the earnings going to come from? We have just spiraled around to the same point, but with lower corporate earnings. Ready for another circle?
2009-09-15 17:59:31
We Have Spiraled Around To The Same Point, But With Lower Earnings.
Pepe,
Great article.
Regarding, "Wait, what do I mean by unfortunately? Well, unfortunately, we're rapidly moving right back to the same place we were before the real issues facing us in The Crisis became apparent."

Ah, "But where is the beef?"

Earnings have been badly, badly hurt. And where is are the earnings going to come from? We have just spiraled around to the same point, but with lower corporate earnings. Ready for another circle?
2009-09-15 17:59:34
We Have Spiraled Around To The Same Point, But With Lower Earnings.
Pepe,
Great article.
Regarding, "Wait, what do I mean by unfortunately? Well, unfortunately, we're rapidly moving right back to the same place we were before the real issues facing us in The Crisis became apparent."

Ah, "But where is the beef?"

Earnings have been badly, badly hurt. And where is are the earnings going to come from? We have just spiraled around to the same point, but with lower corporate earnings. Ready for another circle?
2009-09-15 18:00:46
Oops
oops, ignore the multiple posts.
2009-09-15 18:04:33
Kevin, wonderful article. I wish that I had read the books that you have read. Any suggestions for a list of books to read—especially regarding economics? In the context of your article I would add, The Confidence Man, by Herman Melville, and State and Revolution, by Vladimir Lenin. Amazingly, 100 years or so ago, Lenin predicted that capitalists would use their economic power to obtain monopoly benefits from the government, and that the ultimate monopoly power would reside in the large banks which would control the capitalist governments as long as possible. (Unfortunately for Lenin's Western European traveling companions, after the economic system failed in the 1920s and 1930s, the German and Italian capitalists sided with the fascists, and gave army boots to the starving masses, rather than yielding to the “inevitability” of history.)

At this point it seems clear to all but the ostriches that the ever-increasing global debt will be liquidated in an ugly way sooner or later. Since the amount of debt dwarfs the amount of assets economically available to pay the debt, either the asset values increase (inflation) making the debt payable but in funds worth less in exchange value, or the assets decline in value (deflation) making the debt unpayable. In short, the relationship between the amount of debt and the value of assets will return to economically viable levels. While it remains theoretically possible to lower the debt through reduced expenses, no one I know will volunteer 40% or more of their living standard for such a noble endeavor. I leave the question as to whether increased productivity could solve the debt problem to other minds.

I have not been able to decide whether we are facing deflation or inflation (and apparently the bond and stock markets disagree on this issue also). The basic issue is whether the Fed and other central banks can relate the economies more successfully than the governments did in the 1930s or the Japanese government did in the 1990s. I believe that reflation is their present intention. My “51% guess” is that they will succeed unless political factors stop them. If so, inflation would probably follow. So, what, if anything, would prevent the central banks today from completing their reflation project? Fear of future inflation does not appear to be much of a drag on this effort. Is there, for example, a limit to how much the USD can fall? Is there any political factor that would stop or slow down the central banks in their effort to relate the economies? What stopped the Japanese in the 1990s or the central bankers in the 1930s (I do not accept that they were less informed than we are)?

Thank you. Bill
2009-09-15 18:25:09
more creative credere
As people forget that failure is a possibility, a euphoric economy set in. Speculative borrowering became allowed, those whose income would cover interest payments but not the principal; next the Ponzi borrowers, whose income could cover neither, and could only pay their bills by borrowing still further. Survival depended not on sound business plans, but on borrowed money and freely available credit.
If only there could be be a catchy phrase, carried on banners that would be the solution...Billionaires for Wealthcare.
2009-09-15 18:30:30
Quotes and tomb like buildings
"That's it; my days of reckless behavior and unchecked excess should start right now."
-Commented Amy to her cat while balancing her checkbook.

Awesome and timely article - thank you. I've been wondering around today wondering if I was the only soul who genuinely thought the talk of recovery was completely premature.

Also, great description of Wall Street. I've been to Manhattan once (it was enough) but have visited Montreal on several occasions. For reasons I don't pretend to understand, the builders of the city have chosen great, massive gray buildings. The sun is seen only in pockets in several places and the shadows dominate certain parts of the city. The terrible grey cold - ug. There are only two ways out there: Mont Royal or the river. Or the casino on the other island. ;)
2009-09-15 18:38:52
it's over, it's just beginning -
There are times I feel like I am wandering around in the movie Matrix. I swear that 1/2 of my communication battles recently (not here) have involved with people actively pushing back information I relay. (The other 1/2 is just incompetence on my part...;) )

People don't want to know anything that would upset their carefully ordered world. Even if Obama thought like an economist instead of a politician, would he even allow the idea that we've got years of recovering to do? People become so dependent the reality that CNBC presents to them...
2009-09-15 18:50:34
Question/comment on the Great Depression
I can't admit to have studied the GD in great detail.

However, I thought that the debt crisis/level was actually pretty similar to now. Farms with balloon mortgages and the Florida land boom were 1 aspect. The explosion in stock prices was another similarity to today. In 1900, almost n oone owned a radio, car, or phonograph. By 1929, these were somewhat typical middle-class items which I understood to also have been bought on credit. (Americans have never been the most frugal of folks when came to gadgets from the history I've read...)

I've also read theories that part of the prosperity that WWII brought was in part because people could do nothing else besides save and/or pay down any debt they did have. (Once your ration coupons were gone, you were done spending your money.)
2009-09-15 20:41:11
Re: Reading List
Thanks for the thoughtful note, Bill. As for a reading list, I get asked that a lot and it's hard to pin down the ones that are influential, because they all were. What about Celine's "Journey to the End of the Night"? He was a socialist at best, an anti-semite at worst, but a great writer who was able to capture the raw and bitter humor that accompanies hardship and pain - even when you can't win, you can still always laugh. James Agee ("Let Us Now Praise Famous Men") was not high on either capitalism or New York's publishing world. He wound up nearly drinking himself to death and died of a heart attack in the back of a taxicab. But his book on sharecroppers halfway through the Great Depression put a human face on an entire region that most wanted to pretend didn't exist; the blacks and the whites. Don't forget Nelson Algren, another socialist. He wrote one of the best books of the Great Depression ever written ("Grapes of Wrath" and "Let Us Now Praise Famous Men" notwithstanding). "Walk on the Wild Side" opens with a crazy drunk preacher declaring, "I will play the wh_re to no man, even though the question itself hadn't been asked." Haruki Murakami, the Japanese writer, has many good books. There aren't many textbooks I can recommend. I've read too many already, and I find they infect my thinking like a mild ever-present virus, something always lurking in the background to be drawn upon when all else fails. Make no mistake, I don't know anything. I mostly feel sorry for people who, through career or even choice, have to hold themselves out to the public as if they do; I'm surely guilty of it more often than I'd care to admit. But that's a digression. I guess the bottom line is that if you read the same things everyone else reads, you'll think the same thing everyone else thinks. Murakami said that. God knows where he got it from. There aren't many original thoughts out there, which is why so many of us steal them from one another. No, can't recommend the textbooks at all. Stick with wikipedia for that. What we really need to read is something that helps us get closer to our own thoughts and emotions at any given time. Things are never as good or as bad as they seem. People 200 hundred years from now will be having the same arguments about the same policies and ideologies with the only thing determining who's winning or losing the flavor of the day; the brand that happens to be displayed on the top shelf.
2009-09-16 00:07:04
Never underestimate the ability of the general public to happily live in a manufactured society and to defend it to their utmost because that's all they know. As long as they get the big mac, glen beck, & porn all is well.

One thing I've learned in life in my 42 years is that human behavior bends readily, but is very tough to truly change without, for most, great pain.
2009-09-16 00:21:52
More tinkering by the Treasury
Cramer was passing along rumors about the Treasury concocting favorable tax rules for the scoundrels exposed to all the bad commercial real estate about to hit the fan.

It appears there is no limit to their imagination in finding ways to let the "banksters" off the hook.

After PPIP, mark to model and stifling shorts, and now this, very soon Citi and BOA will be sporting bona fide PEs of 8. Back up the truck ...BOOYAH!
2009-09-16 00:40:09
More tinkering by the Treasury
Sarcasm intended. No positions in Citi or BOA.

It is just astonishing how masterful Bernanke and Geithner have been in pulling all the right levers since March ( both the seen and unseen).

Can they keep this up long enough for a reflated stock market to spark the "wealth effect" once again that will spill over into the real economy? Or is the reflation of the S&P merely a mirror of a debasing of the dollar. If inflation is inevitable, aren't reflated stocks better than today's paper dollars at 1.75% APY? Or is "return OF pricipal" as a consideration officially off the table along with the Armageddon scenario?

2009-09-16 09:48:18
Crisis Need no stinkin ,,,,
Brilliant summary. Glad we're not in 1929 -1935 Kansas no mo.
Got oiur very own stinking Greater Depression.
2009-09-17 11:13:49
Derivatives and CDS - the "currency" of global investment banking ?
I may be way out of line here, but why are all the newly minted "creative financial instruments" never mentioned in any analysis of the "Crisis" ? Roughly $600 trillion floating around....backed only by the "full faith and credit of the issuing institution" and when those institutions have zero "faith and credit", what happens to the $600T in assetts booked on so many institutional income statements ?

When huge investment banking cartels wanted to avoid the limitations of national currencies, they just invented there own. All the family of paper derivatives and the fake insurance to back the up, credit default swaps, became the "currency" of international trade - beyond the control of organizations like the Fed and European central banks. And it still is !

Are these "creative financial instruments" the 9,000 pounds of stinking poo in the corner that no one wants to talk about ?
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