Five Things: The Myth of The Crisis
- President Barack Obama, speaking on "Financial Rescue and Reform" at Federal Hall in New York City, Sep. 14, 2009
"That's it; my days of reckless behavior and unchecked excess are over."
- Kevin Depew, speaking early in the morning to no one in particular on hundreds of separate occasions.
Not many Americans know this, but Wall Street is actually just a dead-end corridor of 1,500 feet carved like a small notch into the side of lower Manhattan. One end is capped by the East River, the other by Trinity Church. The dark, narrow length between is crowded by tall, stone buildings that send down shadows of such fierce certitude that you're sure no ray of sunlight has ever once dared to intrude; like some kind of fiscal Stonehenge.
It's possible to escape these shadows by no fewer than half a dozen side streets and alley openings, but there's no shaking the creeping uneasiness that something you can't quite comprehend is taking place all around you.
Of course, what passes for escape is nothing more than silent complicity. True deliverance from Wall Street comes only two ways -- the river or the church.
It's just past noon on a crystalline Monday in New York City, and even as he's standing inside Federal Hall on Wall Street and Nassau, nearer the church than the river, it's not quite clear President Barack Obama grasps this crucial point. The occasion is to mark the one-year anniversary of The Crisis, an ill-defined, loose-fitting moment that no one, not even the president, seems to be able to pin down.
The Wall Street Journal this morning neatly packaged everything into one box: The Crisis, a Year Later. Similarly, the New York Times is running with Financial Crisis: One Year Later. The Washington Post is Taking Stock.
And yet, paging through all these stories -- digital pile after digital pile of them -- it's still unclear what The Crisis means. No one even knows what tense to use when writing about it because no one is really sure if it's over, let alone when it started. As a result, we've resorted to creating a number of extraordinary myths to help explain to ourselves what has happened.
Five Myths of The CrisisOne: The Anniversary.
Before we get to The Anniversary itself, let's figure out what is The Crisis? Is it Lehman's collapse? Is it toxic mortgages? Is it housing? Is it lending? Is it credit? Is it debt? Is it regulation? Is it consumption? Is it financial engineering? The answer is, yes. It's all of those things.
And so this anniversary is really no anniversary at all; we're commemorating the wrong thing. In fact, the anniversary of The Crisis is one of the myths we've created to help explain to ourselves what it is that's happened -- ironically, while we go about doing more of the very things that caused it to happen in the first place.
This is not to say that the collapse of Lehman Brother wasn't a significant event. It was. But it was a culminating crash of a wave that had been building for years, which brings us to one of the more widely perpetuated myths from no less of a source than the chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Two: It all began with subprime lending.
In a speech delivered before the London School of Economics last January, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke outlined a subtly more in-depth and critical view of the origins of The Crisis than anything he had publicly stated previously.
According to Bernanke, although the subprime debacle triggered the crisis, the developments in the US mortgage market "were only one aspect of a much larger and more encompassing credit boom whose impact transcended the mortgage market to affect many other forms of credit." Indeed.
This view further explicates and builds on the one he first stated before the Economic Club of New York in October 2007. At that time, Bernanke, like many public finance officials, had just spent months and months prior to October 2007 describing the financial crisis as "well contained" to subprime lending; an isolated outlier of what, at that time, were routinely accepted as perfectly normal credit market conditions. Of course, by January of this year, Bernanke recognized it was far deeper than that.
In January, Bernanke admitted that the negative aspects of this "more encompassing credit boom" involved "widespread declines in underwriting standards, breakdowns in lending oversight by investors and rating agencies, increased reliance on complex and opaque credit instruments that proved fragile under stress, and unusually low compensation for risk-taking." Naturally, Bernanke didn't take the next step and acknowledge that the Fed itself was a co-conspirator in the credit orgy, but at least he did back away from the earlier assertion that everything somehow hinged on subprime lending.
The reality is that subprime lending was the inevitable consequence of The Crisis, not the cause of it.
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today i came to the resolution that if our markets, economy, and nation, have come to the point where, what matters is that the market will keep rallying -
...not because of increasing profits and production, not because of breaking innovative technology tempting us with a new future, but -
...because people with other people's money to manage didn't want to have their careers defined or limited for having been cautious -
then, there is no market...
and our president must soon choose if he will lead us the people -
or sustain an illusion most of us are increasingly letting simply soar into the night, burst, then dim....
This mixture of literary technique, analogy and economic insight is why I recommend Minyanville.
"Of course, what passes for escape is nothing more than silent complicity. True deliverance from Wall Street comes only two ways -- the river or the church."
Kevin, this is economic poetry!
But this isn't just a function of government. The Fed, the Treasury and the banks can lead us to this cesspool but they can't make us drink. We drink because we don't want to give up on the dream. The dream of something for nothing. The dream that we can have it all if we just hire the right accountant. Simply put, the American Way of Life was unsustainable. I know, I know...this is heresy. Even as I right this the true believers are flocking back to the markets to profess their faith. According to them this 'crisis' isn't about debt or current account defcits or addiction to oil...it is a test of our belief. A test of whether this capitalist nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. Because if God's Chosen People don't DESERVE prsoperity who does? It is our birthright!
This cancer is not only attacking our vital organs...its attacking our immortal souls. And like some sort of capitalist Jehovah Witnesses we don't need no stinking surgery. We have our full faith and credit!
As Professor Depew says, its all a confidence game.
The current administration's efforts to restart the “consumer desires” are akin to trying to bring back a fashion style of clothes which has run its course and is unpopular.
They really are attempting the one of highest forms of social engineering with their various consumer programs. What a lousy way of bringing change – trying to figure out how to get people to buy. Yawn.
Great article.
Regarding, "Wait, what do I mean by unfortunately? Well, unfortunately, we're rapidly moving right back to the same place we were before the real issues facing us in The Crisis became apparent."
Ah, "But where is the beef?"
Earnings have been badly, badly hurt. And where is are the earnings going to come from? We have just spiraled around to the same point, but with lower corporate earnings. Ready for another circle?
Great article.
Regarding, "Wait, what do I mean by unfortunately? Well, unfortunately, we're rapidly moving right back to the same place we were before the real issues facing us in The Crisis became apparent."
Ah, "But where is the beef?"
Earnings have been badly, badly hurt. And where is are the earnings going to come from? We have just spiraled around to the same point, but with lower corporate earnings. Ready for another circle?
Great article.
Regarding, "Wait, what do I mean by unfortunately? Well, unfortunately, we're rapidly moving right back to the same place we were before the real issues facing us in The Crisis became apparent."
Ah, "But where is the beef?"
Earnings have been badly, badly hurt. And where is are the earnings going to come from? We have just spiraled around to the same point, but with lower corporate earnings. Ready for another circle?
At this point it seems clear to all but the ostriches that the ever-increasing global debt will be liquidated in an ugly way sooner or later. Since the amount of debt dwarfs the amount of assets economically available to pay the debt, either the asset values increase (inflation) making the debt payable but in funds worth less in exchange value, or the assets decline in value (deflation) making the debt unpayable. In short, the relationship between the amount of debt and the value of assets will return to economically viable levels. While it remains theoretically possible to lower the debt through reduced expenses, no one I know will volunteer 40% or more of their living standard for such a noble endeavor. I leave the question as to whether increased productivity could solve the debt problem to other minds.
I have not been able to decide whether we are facing deflation or inflation (and apparently the bond and stock markets disagree on this issue also). The basic issue is whether the Fed and other central banks can relate the economies more successfully than the governments did in the 1930s or the Japanese government did in the 1990s. I believe that reflation is their present intention. My “51% guess” is that they will succeed unless political factors stop them. If so, inflation would probably follow. So, what, if anything, would prevent the central banks today from completing their reflation project? Fear of future inflation does not appear to be much of a drag on this effort. Is there, for example, a limit to how much the USD can fall? Is there any political factor that would stop or slow down the central banks in their effort to relate the economies? What stopped the Japanese in the 1990s or the central bankers in the 1930s (I do not accept that they were less informed than we are)?
Thank you. Bill
If only there could be be a catchy phrase, carried on banners that would be the solution...Billionaires for Wealthcare.
-Commented Amy to her cat while balancing her checkbook.
Awesome and timely article - thank you. I've been wondering around today wondering if I was the only soul who genuinely thought the talk of recovery was completely premature.
Also, great description of Wall Street. I've been to Manhattan once (it was enough) but have visited Montreal on several occasions. For reasons I don't pretend to understand, the builders of the city have chosen great, massive gray buildings. The sun is seen only in pockets in several places and the shadows dominate certain parts of the city. The terrible grey cold - ug. There are only two ways out there: Mont Royal or the river. Or the casino on the other island. ;)
People don't want to know anything that would upset their carefully ordered world. Even if Obama thought like an economist instead of a politician, would he even allow the idea that we've got years of recovering to do? People become so dependent the reality that CNBC presents to them...
However, I thought that the debt crisis/level was actually pretty similar to now. Farms with balloon mortgages and the Florida land boom were 1 aspect. The explosion in stock prices was another similarity to today. In 1900, almost n oone owned a radio, car, or phonograph. By 1929, these were somewhat typical middle-class items which I understood to also have been bought on credit. (Americans have never been the most frugal of folks when came to gadgets from the history I've read...)
I've also read theories that part of the prosperity that WWII brought was in part because people could do nothing else besides save and/or pay down any debt they did have. (Once your ration coupons were gone, you were done spending your money.)
One thing I've learned in life in my 42 years is that human behavior bends readily, but is very tough to truly change without, for most, great pain.
It appears there is no limit to their imagination in finding ways to let the "banksters" off the hook.
After PPIP, mark to model and stifling shorts, and now this, very soon Citi and BOA will be sporting bona fide PEs of 8. Back up the truck ...BOOYAH!
It is just astonishing how masterful Bernanke and Geithner have been in pulling all the right levers since March ( both the seen and unseen).
Can they keep this up long enough for a reflated stock market to spark the "wealth effect" once again that will spill over into the real economy? Or is the reflation of the S&P merely a mirror of a debasing of the dollar. If inflation is inevitable, aren't reflated stocks better than today's paper dollars at 1.75% APY? Or is "return OF pricipal" as a consideration officially off the table along with the Armageddon scenario?
Got oiur very own stinking Greater Depression.
When huge investment banking cartels wanted to avoid the limitations of national currencies, they just invented there own. All the family of paper derivatives and the fake insurance to back the up, credit default swaps, became the "currency" of international trade - beyond the control of organizations like the Fed and European central banks. And it still is !
Are these "creative financial instruments" the 9,000 pounds of stinking poo in the corner that no one wants to talk about ?


















