Randoms: Going Thataway!
By Todd Harrison Jul 27, 2009 12:55 pm
The tug-of-war continues as we edge into a fresh five-session set.
- There's always a bull case and there's always a bear case. The trick to the trade is to see both sides and capture the disconnect between perception and reality.
- If the consumer is 70% of GDP and retail sales are effectively "double dipping," doesn't the "W" thesis gain traction as a potential outcome?
- For all ye faithful focusing on the financials, please keep the longer-term flag formation on ye radar. History tells us that these patterns have a tendency to "break" in the direction of the overall trend.
- I learned a long time ago that when you get some dust in your eye and you're having a hard time seeing the ball, stepping out of the box and cleaning off your cleats is a good idea.
- As per Señor Saut's missive, a number of traders are viewing S&P 980 as near-term resistance. I'm keeping half an eye on that number as we edge out of this week's gate. Why? I would be on all fours in the back yard if I thought watching the grass grow could lend clues to navigating the tape.
- For some strange reason, Memoirs is getting a lot of attention today. Please remember that if you're on the Minyanville Underground Railroad, you'll get each chapter on Tuesday night as an added sweetener for being an Ambassador of our mission. Honesty, trust and respect.
- Circling back to this morning's opener, this whole "high frequency trading" shindig has all the makings of massive backlash and maybe, just maybe, societal upheaval if we discover investors were at an unfair advantage. Remember, social mood shapes markets and the point of recognition, on the collective, is a process.
- Be that as it may (or may not) be, the collective, as it stands, is conditioned to buy dips and based on the price action, they'll be right until proven otherwise. For my part, and consistent with the stylistic approach I've utilized for some time, I'm in hit it to quit it mode, looking for two-sided opportunities.
- This interview is perhaps the most compressive overview of the Minyanville mission to date.
- The most bullish thing on my screen? Super-tell Bank of America (BAC) is up 4%.
- The most bearish thing on my screen? The continued lethargy in retail (see Lowe's (LOW) down 4% and Sears Holding (SHLD) off 2%).
- The macro as measured by the dollar? Flat.
- The temperature as measured by breadth? Ditto.
- If I had to rank our four primary metrics, I would put psychology first, technicals second (due to the recent press), fundamentals third (it's earnings season) and structural fourth (if only because it is what it is and there's been nothing new). The irony of the situation is that we're one headline away from the structural issue lapping the field.
- Anyone else miss Bennet? Yeah, me too.
- The tape today is, in a word, fluxy. If it were two words, it would be fluxy and drifty. If it were three words, it would be fluxy, drifty and non-committal.
- Given the recent mood swing, that could be extrapolated to be "tie goes to the bulls" although, for my part, I want to see the market reacts to a retest of S&P 956. Remember, Technical Analysis 101 dictates that the best time to buy a breakout is upon a retest.
- Turnaround Tuesday, anyone?
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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