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Random Thoughts

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There's alotta folks waiting in vain and the next step, either way, could indeed spur the herd.

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  • As it stands, rotation station is trumping outright migration as the metals stand out to the upside. This is strong relative action, particularly on the heels of the incremental downtick of Iran tension premium. I continue to feel that gold is the best relative bet across the spectrum of asset classes.

  • Overall, from an outright edge standpoint, there isn't much to hang our hat on. Breadth is flat-lining, the financials are pretty in pink but not yet punk (keep an eye on LEND as it gives back 4% of yesterday's gain), the homies are hanging on by their fingernails and the semis, after holding the SOX 455-460 level again, are trying to break the habit of lower highs.

  • "If the markets breakout from these levels and complete the cup & handle formation this would be a confirmation that the market is not yet ready for a serious correction. Conversely, a break back down through the neckline of the double bottom on any kind of volume could signal a re-test of the March lows." Professor Kevin "Tickle me Tuttle" in his excellent morning Cup O Joe.

  • I've always been a big believer of being proactive rather than reactive, particularly when it relates to stepping in front of conventional wisdom. Still, if you haven't read Kevin Tuttle's opener, I think he does a fabu job of depicting our current juncture. There's alotta folks waiting in vain and the next step, either way, could indeed spur the herd.

  • Goldman $210 is a near-term defined risk level, for those looking for clues in the fuse. If this puppy pops through to the upside, it might be a good tell for the tape.

  • The first thing I thought of when I read about the Apollo IPO? The FIG Newton column and the potential for the last bastion of bubbles to emerge.

  • How's it hangin'? Cause baby from the back this chart is bangin'...Watch the homies, O-Dog, as the HGX is at an uber-important level. If Boo puts a cap in this index, you could see folks boarding up their windows throughout the neighborhood.

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey finds an increase in bullish sentiment to 50.6% from 48.4% last week and a drop in bearish sentiment to 25.8% from 28.9% prior. Those expecting a correction fell to 23.6% from 24.1%.

  • I asked Professor Lance Lewis for his favorite metal holdings and he responded with the following list (he has positions in all of them): Gold Fields (GFI), Harmony Gold (HMY), ASA (ASA), Kinross Gold (KGC), Golden Star (GSS), Metallica Resources (MRB), Nevsun Resources (NSU), Minefielders (MFN), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Newmont Mining (NEM).

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know...

    • Is anyone else secretly excited for the Entourage premiere on Sunday?

    • Is Al Gore gonna toss his hat in the ring?

    • Don't we want to lose money on our hedges?

    • I pick today, rainy as it is, to break out my svelte new suede spring jacket?

    • Will the transference of bubbles (dot.com, real estate, debt) migrate to private equity and hedge fund IPO's?

    • And, like most bubbles, will it last much longer than most people expect?

    • Are you ready--and I mean really ready--for the debut of Hoofy & Boo's News & Views?


R.P.

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Positions in SPX, financials, gold, GSS
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