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Random Thoughts


Trade, don't hope, and think positive. Always think positive.

  • We've been noodling the potential of an escalation with Iran for quite some time in the 'Ville, offering that energy and metals--which already have secular winds at their backs--would further benefit from the unfortunate evolution. Keep that front and center, Minyans, and keep it as a compass in your portfolio.

  • Every orifice of the government denied an "incident" last night but where there's smoke, there's fire. Something happened and the (crude) market sniffed it out. If it wasn't a "shot across the bow," there are plenty of other reasons to uptick the risk premium in the region. And that's what we're seeing now (VXO +17%)--that re-pricing of risk.

  • As Big Ben barks about how sub-prime problems are contained, there's no spillover from housing and growth is on track, I'm left with one simple thought: I'll have what he's having!

  • Seriously--we don't "do" acrimony in the 'Ville and that's certainly not our intention now. But let's call a spade a spade--the FOMC is saying that they wanna see what happens and react in kind. The only flaw in that logic is that the market is a leading indicator. By the time they have Cause célèbre, it'll already be baked into the price action cake.

  • Be that as it may, as traders, the journey itself is more important than the destination. As such, please know that I was thisclose to slipping into the metaphorical fur (bear costume) this morning but deferred as the Theraflu, Emergen-C and antibiotics have combined to give me 16 screens (rather than the normal eight).

  • Still, and despite nibblin' on some SunMicro below $6, I added a dose of index puts to further skew my risk profile to the short side.

  • There are two levels to lean against, S&P 1425 (50-day) and S&P 1450 (Tom Petty's breakdown). I'll likely use the former for the incremental risk and the latter as a broader brush. And I'll say this, the longer we stay down (with breadth 2:1 negative), the more likely a sloppy close becomes.

  • Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die!

  • Professors Sedacca and Zucchi make good points on the sub-prime containment vs. contagion. We talked on this point before, noting that while sub-prime is a small percentage of the overall mortgage market, there is real risk as a function of derivatives. If you missed this, give it a read. It sorta ties it all together.

  • Maybe it's me but I've heard Big Ben say "hope" an awful lot during his testimony. Hope, above all else, is not a viable investment vehicle.

  • The killer Beaz! Professor Fil Zucchi offered a nice, succinct take on the Beazer battle over on the Buzz.

  • Wait, you're not reading the Buzz? DUDE!

  • Many thanks to Minyan Fritz for his kind donation to Ruby's Kids!

  • Meanwhile, we're a few S&P points away from removing the entire "removal of the tightening bias" rally.

  • Growth spurt! The VXO has matured from his bar mitzvah (13), through the sweet sixteen and now, don't blink, to voting age. Mazel tov!

  • Trade, don't hope, and think positive. Always think positive.


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position in spx, sunw

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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