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Freaky Friday Potpourri: Imbalances and Catalysts Into Quarter End


While the structural imbalances occurred during Greenspan's reign, his bubble juggling skills masked the manifestation.

  • I pared back on my S&P and Goldman puts yesterday as a function of discipline. I took a few lumps on both (always honest) but the goal, when trading, is to trip, not fall. I'm still skewed that way, just not as large (which wasn't that large to begin with).

  • Where did I misstep? Well, we've been all over "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation," offering that a grumpy greenback was a necessary precursor--but not a guarantor of--further asset class lift (from crude to gold to equities).

  • Seeing it and being it are two different things, however, and that disconnect cost me some coin but taught me a lesson.

  • And yes, so it's said, we may see lower asset classes and a down dollar. When foreigners finally balk (denomination of asset classes in alternative currencies), it'll shock the monkey (shock the monkey).

  • I hate invisible catalysts.

  • Alan Greenspan is offering the UK economy was doing exceptionally well although the risk of recession has risen. My question is this-how long will Elmer's legacy stay in tact? While the structural imbalances occurred during his reign, his bubble juggling skills masked the manifestation. I don't believe history will be as kind as the current press.

  • Speaking of red rubber noses and big floppy feet, I'm juggling my own struggle today on the schedule front. I'm outie around noon as we've got a massive cross-town meld before scooting to Baltimore for a famfest of the finest order. There's something about children's laughter that sounds mighty appealing right now!

  • We've seen alotta traffic in Intel October paper as earnings fall within that cycle and tech has been in vogue.

  • We're back in the mindset where most folks looking for a decline are anticipating nothing more than a "healthy pull-back."

  • "I also sense that the metals are poised to take the baton and share the leadership spotlight for years to come. I've elongated my time horizon in these two sectors and will look to add exposure on dips." August 22, 2005. Sometimes I wish I listened to myself more aggressively!

  • OK, so I finally saw the Wall Street 20th Anniversary DVD Documentary. What's become clear to-and on-me is that the camera adds 30 lbs!

  • Man, where did the week, month, quarter, year and decade go?

  • Yes, I've had the thought "news is always worst at the bottom" while listening to the homebuilders. I'm not smart enough to call a bottom (or a top, for that matter), particularly given the potential that we're in the first inning of a debt unwind.

  • 85 degrees in NYC and it's almost October? Where's Al Gore when you need him most?

Answers I Really Wanna Know…

  • How bout some snaps to Joe Torre for his "12 for 12" record in managing the Yanks to a post-season presence?

  • When in doubt, wait it out?

  • With crude at $83/barrel, can we finally put this discussion to bed?

  • Does anyone else see the paltry volume of late?

  • Isn't that a traditional fly in the upside ointment?

  • Can these intermediated markets still be considered "traditional?"

  • Should I set my "crank-o-meter" clock for every Tuesday and Thursday following my uber-early morning training sessions?

  • Have you entered the MV Kids $10,000 Education Sweepstakes yet?

  • And the last time Fannie Mae (FNM) reported audited earnings is when?

Minyan Mailbags!

  • Toddo,

    As noted by Minyan Peter, commercial paper is rolling onto bank balance sheets yet we hear very little concern about this issue. Is our banking system so large that it is a non-event? Thanks.

    Minyan Pete


    I think it's safe to say that we (the collective "we") don't believe it's a non-event. I think it's fair to say we believe it is a matter of time, both as a function of A) how far out the Fed has pushed risk on the curve (by accepting riskier collateral) and B) how long international investors will "hang on" to deteriorating dollar-denominated assets (or accumulate them through the transfer of risk).


  • Toddo,

    Just wondering if you would care to comment on the paltry volume...

    2 bln plus on the Big Board in months past but for the past few weeks we've been fortunate to be north of a bln.

    -Minyan J


    Lower volume rallies are 'traditionally' bearish (just as low volume sell-offs are traditionally bullish).

    The question remains, in this era of financial intermediation, is whether the markets are still traditional.



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