Ten Reasons the Countertrend Rally May Be Over
By James Kostohryz Jul 17, 2009 3:20 pm
Fundamental, psychological, and technical factors are all at play.
On a trading basis, I exited the position on April 15 when the S&P was at about 845, for reasons I reviewed in Anatomy of a Losing Trade. On May 19, as outlined in MV Weather Report: Winds Blow S&P to 1000?, I resumed the position with the S&P at around 900 for reasons I fully fleshed out in Why the Counter-Trend Rally Can’t Be Stopped. At that time, I built a portfolio consisting of stocks such as BAC, MS, JPM, AAPL, RIMM, PALM, GOOG, IO, YGE, JASO, SPWRA, WFR, BRCM, QLD, and SSO, as well as various options positions on these and a few other stocks.
Ever since I published my first articles on the countertrend rally, I've been consistent in stating that the window for the countertrend rally would be in the June-July period. Consistent with this long-held view, since mid-June, I've been expressing increasing caution regarding the market for reasons outlined in various buzzes and articles (see all articles and buzzes published since June 16).
On Wednesday, as outlined here, with the S&P between 925 and 933, I essentially liquidated my entire core long position. In the following article, I explain why.
Fundamental Factors
1. Reversal of the pent-up demand effect.
Perhaps the single most important fundamental insight that drove my countertrend rally prediction was that production and shipments had contracted far more sharply than underlying demand. I outlined that case in Surprises Continue to Drive the Rally, and again in Why The Countertrend Rally Can’t Be Stopped. Economists and equity analysts projected the October 2008-February 2009 production declines in a linear fashion into the future, and this produced massive estimation errors. It was clear to me that once the psychological panic phase had passed, production and shipments would not only normalize in line with true underlying demand, but there would also be a pent-up-demand effect that would “juice up” the economic and corporate data from March through June.
According to my research, the pent-up-demand effect alluded to above has probably run its course. But that, in and of itself, isn't the main problem. The problem is one I predicted in the 2 articles cited above: Economists and equity analysts have once again made the mistake of projecting linearly. They have taken second-quarter figures and projected forward from there. The problem is that the true level of normalized underlying demand is below that which was reflected in the data in the second quarter of 2009, due to the pent-up-demand effect. This means that once the pent-up demand effect wears off, demand will quickly settle back to a lower normalized level. Not only that, from this lower normalized level, aggregate demand is still contracting at a fairly rapid pace due to declining employment, real wages, and profits. In sum: The third quarter and particularly, the fourth quarter, are likely to bring substantial disappointments in economic data and corporate earnings.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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2009-07-17 12:21:51
Nice article
Very few places online produce commentary this insightful. Seriously impressed with this analysis, way to put things into perspective. If half of your predictions are correct the blow upside the head to the markets could be nasty. You do a good job of illustrating how far sentiment has shifted in the last few months.
2009-07-17 15:14:29
Thanks
Professor K,
Thanks for taking the time to share this. Very insightful. I also appreciate that you are willing to share your process down to specific trading positions that help express your point of view with stocks.
Minyan Shaun
Thanks for taking the time to share this. Very insightful. I also appreciate that you are willing to share your process down to specific trading positions that help express your point of view with stocks.
Minyan Shaun
2009-07-17 15:43:35
Fantastic Commentary
James,you have done it again. Bravo. A most insightful, articulate piece. It is a breath of fresh air. Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts with all the minyans out here!
2009-07-17 16:13:54
very...
...comprehensive, and satisfying - not necessarily the same thing ;-)
from:
observations about our political fortunes, or lack of: "...at a time when bold policy-making is needed, the U.S. is faced with a political stalemate characterized by irrelevance and incompetence...." -
to:
nuanced walks through the wooded plots of psychology and technical exhaustion -
and guidelines for possible tactical (strategic?) planning: "Sector and stock selection will be the name of the game in the second half of 2009 and 2010...."
this was a treat of an article ;-)
thanks james!
from:
observations about our political fortunes, or lack of: "...at a time when bold policy-making is needed, the U.S. is faced with a political stalemate characterized by irrelevance and incompetence...." -
to:
nuanced walks through the wooded plots of psychology and technical exhaustion -
and guidelines for possible tactical (strategic?) planning: "Sector and stock selection will be the name of the game in the second half of 2009 and 2010...."
this was a treat of an article ;-)
thanks james!
2009-07-17 16:33:54
Thanks for the article
Thanks for this article. Your detailed, explicit style provides a lot to chew on, and is both helpful and interesting. And I give you props for making your âcalls' ahead of time and in detail, and for especially for calling it âright' throughout this spring. Thank you for all of the work that your share here.
I had a couple lingering questions. A scaled down version of PPIP is still in the works, no? Isn't this a huge unknown for the market (ace up the sleeve of Fed/Treasury)? Distressed paper trades at values far greater than anticipated, lots of debt is marked up, sentiment improves, market rallies hard?
In a lengthy recent article, among other calls, you predicted gold w/ correct significantly lower. I read you words several times, and while your were explicit with your projection, you didn't provide a rationale for your call. I wonder if you would be willing to characterize the âwhyâ on that call? It's such a tortured subject w/ so many disparate views that knowing your call really doesn't narrow the possible rationales you might have for making that call. In short, why do you believe gold correct hard?
Thanks in advance for any comments you might be able to share.
I had a couple lingering questions. A scaled down version of PPIP is still in the works, no? Isn't this a huge unknown for the market (ace up the sleeve of Fed/Treasury)? Distressed paper trades at values far greater than anticipated, lots of debt is marked up, sentiment improves, market rallies hard?
In a lengthy recent article, among other calls, you predicted gold w/ correct significantly lower. I read you words several times, and while your were explicit with your projection, you didn't provide a rationale for your call. I wonder if you would be willing to characterize the âwhyâ on that call? It's such a tortured subject w/ so many disparate views that knowing your call really doesn't narrow the possible rationales you might have for making that call. In short, why do you believe gold correct hard?
Thanks in advance for any comments you might be able to share.
2009-07-17 16:49:13
Thanks for the article
Hi Wade,
Thanks for the kind words.
Rest assured that I will write on gold when I think the timing is right. In the short term, I am neutral. It is in the medium term that I am bearish and I will write a detailed article as to why.
Thanks for the kind words.
Rest assured that I will write on gold when I think the timing is right. In the short term, I am neutral. It is in the medium term that I am bearish and I will write a detailed article as to why.
2009-07-17 17:00:14
Thanks for the article
Wade,
I was hoping for more out of PPIP. And we could still see some action there. But in general, the timing to have implemented was a couple of months ago. They missed the sentiment windo in my view. If sentiment and fundamentals start turning as I am suggesting, it is going to be rough getting managers and end clients to participate.
I was hoping for more out of PPIP. And we could still see some action there. But in general, the timing to have implemented was a couple of months ago. They missed the sentiment windo in my view. If sentiment and fundamentals start turning as I am suggesting, it is going to be rough getting managers and end clients to participate.
2009-07-17 17:29:33
Wow - this is really great
This is a really wonderful article. Thanks so much for analysis and insight.
Only 1 comment:
"Many folks are still waxing lyrical about âpeak oil.â"
I risk tinfoil hats here, but the possible worldwide decline in oil production isn't exactly a weird myth. It's the real science that geologists have used for decades to keep their jobs at energy companies. If you can't estimate how much oil and how long it will flow in a given field, you don't keep your job. The same science correctly estimated when the US would become a net oil importer, which we have.
On the other hand, I totally agree that oil could collapse again in the short term. Peak oil is about secular trends moving at the pace of a glacier relative to daily price movements. Current oil prices are about immediate supply and demand and investor psychology, not long term trends. I could totally envision a scenario where oil loses it's current price support. (And then I'll wish again that I could somehow store a tankerful of the stuff conveniently...)
Only 1 comment:
"Many folks are still waxing lyrical about âpeak oil.â"
I risk tinfoil hats here, but the possible worldwide decline in oil production isn't exactly a weird myth. It's the real science that geologists have used for decades to keep their jobs at energy companies. If you can't estimate how much oil and how long it will flow in a given field, you don't keep your job. The same science correctly estimated when the US would become a net oil importer, which we have.
On the other hand, I totally agree that oil could collapse again in the short term. Peak oil is about secular trends moving at the pace of a glacier relative to daily price movements. Current oil prices are about immediate supply and demand and investor psychology, not long term trends. I could totally envision a scenario where oil loses it's current price support. (And then I'll wish again that I could somehow store a tankerful of the stuff conveniently...)
2009-07-17 18:16:32
Wow - this is really great
Hi Amy:
Thanks for your observations.
Regarding peak oil, what I was trying to point out was that using that theory as a reason to load up on USO right now in the context of a bearish demand picture is probably untimely. Longer term, I agree that problems loom. But timing is key and my take is that oil goes to $30 before it goes to $100.
And for what it is worth, I am a former oil analyst and although I think there will probably be a spike in the next few years, I strongly disagree with the notion that there is a shortage of oil in the world. There is plenty of oil. It is only a matter of how quickly production can be ramped relative to consumption. And it is a matter of high prices making it economical to do the exploration work. A few years of oil above $80 will cause proven reserves to explode, in my view. 10 years from now we will be talking about an oil glut.
Thanks for your observations.
Regarding peak oil, what I was trying to point out was that using that theory as a reason to load up on USO right now in the context of a bearish demand picture is probably untimely. Longer term, I agree that problems loom. But timing is key and my take is that oil goes to $30 before it goes to $100.
And for what it is worth, I am a former oil analyst and although I think there will probably be a spike in the next few years, I strongly disagree with the notion that there is a shortage of oil in the world. There is plenty of oil. It is only a matter of how quickly production can be ramped relative to consumption. And it is a matter of high prices making it economical to do the exploration work. A few years of oil above $80 will cause proven reserves to explode, in my view. 10 years from now we will be talking about an oil glut.
2009-07-17 18:36:15
Thanks for the article
I want to add my kudos to this marvelous analysis and concise, clear and forward looking projection from your viewpoint. Very helpful.
I too am interested in the Gold dynamic as when viewing the compared trending of SPY to GLD over the past year for example, you can see while even though recently, and for different short term periods, gold and S&P trend together, as from early April to about now, in the longer timeframes, and especially when the market is correcting downward significantly, gold really serves as a valuable counter weight and trends opposite. Given your call on the forces that should propel the market to fall for the last half of the year, one would think that gold (and silver?) will revert to their countertrend roles. Will be interested to hear what you have to say here.
Also interested in your views on Nat Gas (UNG play) since the ratio between oil gas is so out of whack just now. You mention Oil must drop substantially but could Nat Gas rise to help close the price ratio gap in the same time period or should we expect it to follow in Oil's footsteps.
Thanks again for your willingness to share your sharp and insightful views as well as calling out AHEAD of time what you're doing and where you think it's going. It's brave to put it on the line but the only thing that is valuable to us readers as we're comparing and weighing the different viewpoints in our own analyses.
Jeffrey
I too am interested in the Gold dynamic as when viewing the compared trending of SPY to GLD over the past year for example, you can see while even though recently, and for different short term periods, gold and S&P trend together, as from early April to about now, in the longer timeframes, and especially when the market is correcting downward significantly, gold really serves as a valuable counter weight and trends opposite. Given your call on the forces that should propel the market to fall for the last half of the year, one would think that gold (and silver?) will revert to their countertrend roles. Will be interested to hear what you have to say here.
Also interested in your views on Nat Gas (UNG play) since the ratio between oil gas is so out of whack just now. You mention Oil must drop substantially but could Nat Gas rise to help close the price ratio gap in the same time period or should we expect it to follow in Oil's footsteps.
Thanks again for your willingness to share your sharp and insightful views as well as calling out AHEAD of time what you're doing and where you think it's going. It's brave to put it on the line but the only thing that is valuable to us readers as we're comparing and weighing the different viewpoints in our own analyses.
Jeffrey
2009-07-17 18:44:21
Wow - this is really great
James,
Thank you for all of these responses. I look forward to reading any article you share expanding your views on Gold in the medium term.
I have to comment and ask a question about your response to Amy on Peak Oil.
Your first paragraph led me to believe you believed in Peak Oil theory, but placed far greater importance on short-term demand destruction and over-supply of a commodity that is difficult to store.
Your second paragraph, as I read it, completely dismisses Peak Oil theory. It's impossible to make the statements you made, and believe that world wide production of oil has peaked (or that all liquids production has peaked or will peak soonâunless you presume a large and continuing decline in demand, which you have not even hinted that you believe). So did I read your second paragraph correctly? You believe there will be an oil glut in 10 years?
I'm coming from the perspective of having read folks like Deffeyes and others, who in brief, have laid out their analyses using Hubbert's approach, or one similar to it, to estimate world wide production of oil. Obviously there is flawed input data, as detailed by Simmons. But none of the Peakers I've read could envision a glut 10 years from now.
If I got all this right, and we're miles apart on our views of Peak Oil, I wonder if you could suggest a reading list? Basically, I'd like to know how you can dismiss the views of Deffeyes, et. al⦠Who/what should I be reading for a compelling counter argument?
Thanks again for your contributions.
Thank you for all of these responses. I look forward to reading any article you share expanding your views on Gold in the medium term.
I have to comment and ask a question about your response to Amy on Peak Oil.
Your first paragraph led me to believe you believed in Peak Oil theory, but placed far greater importance on short-term demand destruction and over-supply of a commodity that is difficult to store.
Your second paragraph, as I read it, completely dismisses Peak Oil theory. It's impossible to make the statements you made, and believe that world wide production of oil has peaked (or that all liquids production has peaked or will peak soonâunless you presume a large and continuing decline in demand, which you have not even hinted that you believe). So did I read your second paragraph correctly? You believe there will be an oil glut in 10 years?
I'm coming from the perspective of having read folks like Deffeyes and others, who in brief, have laid out their analyses using Hubbert's approach, or one similar to it, to estimate world wide production of oil. Obviously there is flawed input data, as detailed by Simmons. But none of the Peakers I've read could envision a glut 10 years from now.
If I got all this right, and we're miles apart on our views of Peak Oil, I wonder if you could suggest a reading list? Basically, I'd like to know how you can dismiss the views of Deffeyes, et. al⦠Who/what should I be reading for a compelling counter argument?
Thanks again for your contributions.
2009-07-17 20:18:00
Wow - this is really great
Wade,
Call me a believer in Peak Oil in the medium-long term. Say the next 2-10 years.
Where I differ with Peak Oil theorists on the margin is that they have a relatively linear and static view of the discovery process. I believe there is plenty of history and current data to support the idea that higher prices will produce a non-linear surge in discoveries. In addition, I believe analysts overall are grossly underestimating where alternative energy -- particularly solar -- will be 10 years from now.
Given the interest on this subject, I will write on this in the future and provide some sources.
Thanks again for the interest.
Call me a believer in Peak Oil in the medium-long term. Say the next 2-10 years.
Where I differ with Peak Oil theorists on the margin is that they have a relatively linear and static view of the discovery process. I believe there is plenty of history and current data to support the idea that higher prices will produce a non-linear surge in discoveries. In addition, I believe analysts overall are grossly underestimating where alternative energy -- particularly solar -- will be 10 years from now.
Given the interest on this subject, I will write on this in the future and provide some sources.
Thanks again for the interest.
2009-07-18 05:35:28
Wow - this is really great
I will be eager to read them. Thank you again for all of your responses.
2009-07-18 09:31:40
Wow - this is really great
James (and Wade)
I'd be very interested to reading your thoughts, too.
I guess the idea an oil glut based "non-linear" discovery rates is makes me nervous. I have a BA in geology, which is now has several layers of dust on it. :) For the record, I am painfully aware I am not an expert on petro-geology nor energy as that was not was not my school's focus.
However, my experiences there lead me to the idea that there might not be very many discoveries left to make. One of my professors was a practicing geologist from the 50's on. (He was in his 80's when I met him.) According to him, during the cold war, most of the country was scoured for petroleum resources. If I recall correctly, the sum of it was that the US mostly had oil shales left in any significant quantity. (Oil shales are energy intensive to process, making oil from that source very expensive per barrel.)
I'm not saying we know it all geologically, or in developing countries, especially, there might not be unknown resources. I'm just having a hard time imagining that we've somehow missed the large, high-quality fields currently in production given satellite technology, computer modeling, and the wealth of modern tools available since the 80's.
So I definitely would be interested in your research/line of reasoning. If you're right, it's time to go back to school and get an MS in petro-geology before the wave hits. :)
I'd be very interested to reading your thoughts, too.
I guess the idea an oil glut based "non-linear" discovery rates is makes me nervous. I have a BA in geology, which is now has several layers of dust on it. :) For the record, I am painfully aware I am not an expert on petro-geology nor energy as that was not was not my school's focus.
However, my experiences there lead me to the idea that there might not be very many discoveries left to make. One of my professors was a practicing geologist from the 50's on. (He was in his 80's when I met him.) According to him, during the cold war, most of the country was scoured for petroleum resources. If I recall correctly, the sum of it was that the US mostly had oil shales left in any significant quantity. (Oil shales are energy intensive to process, making oil from that source very expensive per barrel.)
I'm not saying we know it all geologically, or in developing countries, especially, there might not be unknown resources. I'm just having a hard time imagining that we've somehow missed the large, high-quality fields currently in production given satellite technology, computer modeling, and the wealth of modern tools available since the 80's.
So I definitely would be interested in your research/line of reasoning. If you're right, it's time to go back to school and get an MS in petro-geology before the wave hits. :)
2009-07-18 15:35:29
Brilliant stuff! VERY helpful
James,
Your analysis is compelling and timely. It has inspired me to join Buzz and Banter so I can follow you more closely.
I join others here who are very interested in your gold analysis. Many people, including me, are seeking that refuge in this storm. And if that refuge ultimately turns out to be flimsy -- I'd like to know as soon as possible.
At the moment, I take comfort that hedge fund superstar John Paulson, who has made SO MUCH money from being ahead of the curve on this financial crisis, is betting so much on the future of gold. (Don't know his rationale.) But I'm certainly VERY interested to hear your counterview.
Keep up the incredible work -- and all the best to you. Will follow your thoughts closely.
Your analysis is compelling and timely. It has inspired me to join Buzz and Banter so I can follow you more closely.
I join others here who are very interested in your gold analysis. Many people, including me, are seeking that refuge in this storm. And if that refuge ultimately turns out to be flimsy -- I'd like to know as soon as possible.
At the moment, I take comfort that hedge fund superstar John Paulson, who has made SO MUCH money from being ahead of the curve on this financial crisis, is betting so much on the future of gold. (Don't know his rationale.) But I'm certainly VERY interested to hear your counterview.
Keep up the incredible work -- and all the best to you. Will follow your thoughts closely.
2009-07-18 15:52:19
Gold
To anyone interested, my comments to James about gold stem from a prediction in his earlier aricle: "Nine Post-Earnings Season Predictions."
2009-07-19 11:04:25
general views on Asia, Europe, emerging markets & how to play them
Hi James,
Very nicely outlined and clearly explained views you have on this piece. In the article, you mentioned the trouble brewing in Asia, with China in particular. So, it sounds that you are expecting a replay of late 2008 theme: worldwide markets plunge, with the US markets weak but outperforming.
Perhaps, the recent failure of China debt auction (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abvOxEK1tv8w) is a prelude of what's coming -- from China in particular & Asia in general (except for Japan)?
I hope that at some point in the future you can discuss emerging Asia in general & China in significant depths. It seems that the consensus at present is rooting for emerging Asia & China to lead the recovery. Also, that Asian countries have learned from the 1997-8 crisis, so they are not going to run into the same problems again. This consensus is reflected on how well Asian markets are doing so far from March 6. HK, India, Indonesia, Singapore, & China stock markets have rebounded very sharply, among them w/ close to or more than 100% gains from the bottom. Definitely, it will be a very attractive play if it turns out the consensus is horribly wrong and the plunge even more severe than last year.
By the way, Hugh Hendry has an interesting view, in that he views China as a deep, out of the money call option on US GDP growth. Here's the snip from his interview:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl_Uiv89Tck&feature=related
Do you agree with this?
If it is the case that shorting Asia & Europe are the most attractive plays, what are the vehicles for those? There are some European banks listed in NYSE, e.g. Deutsche Bank (DB), and the emerging markets ETF "EEM", China ETF "FXI". Aside from that, I know of nothing else. What are other vehicles that might be attractive?
So, I'll be looking forward to your insights. Thanks in advance.
Very nicely outlined and clearly explained views you have on this piece. In the article, you mentioned the trouble brewing in Asia, with China in particular. So, it sounds that you are expecting a replay of late 2008 theme: worldwide markets plunge, with the US markets weak but outperforming.
Perhaps, the recent failure of China debt auction (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abvOxEK1tv8w) is a prelude of what's coming -- from China in particular & Asia in general (except for Japan)?
I hope that at some point in the future you can discuss emerging Asia in general & China in significant depths. It seems that the consensus at present is rooting for emerging Asia & China to lead the recovery. Also, that Asian countries have learned from the 1997-8 crisis, so they are not going to run into the same problems again. This consensus is reflected on how well Asian markets are doing so far from March 6. HK, India, Indonesia, Singapore, & China stock markets have rebounded very sharply, among them w/ close to or more than 100% gains from the bottom. Definitely, it will be a very attractive play if it turns out the consensus is horribly wrong and the plunge even more severe than last year.
By the way, Hugh Hendry has an interesting view, in that he views China as a deep, out of the money call option on US GDP growth. Here's the snip from his interview:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl_Uiv89Tck&feature=related
Do you agree with this?
If it is the case that shorting Asia & Europe are the most attractive plays, what are the vehicles for those? There are some European banks listed in NYSE, e.g. Deutsche Bank (DB), and the emerging markets ETF "EEM", China ETF "FXI". Aside from that, I know of nothing else. What are other vehicles that might be attractive?
So, I'll be looking forward to your insights. Thanks in advance.
2009-07-19 11:39:15
general views on Asia, Europe, emerging markets & how to play them
Hi Roger,
I will go into more depth on Asia in the future. On Hendry, I had seen the interview and we were mostly in ageement on Asia and China. However, I there was much not discussed there that is driving my thinking.
On vehicles, I will share what I am doing with readers once I am done. However some of the examples you point out are potential vehicles.
Take care,
I will go into more depth on Asia in the future. On Hendry, I had seen the interview and we were mostly in ageement on Asia and China. However, I there was much not discussed there that is driving my thinking.
On vehicles, I will share what I am doing with readers once I am done. However some of the examples you point out are potential vehicles.
Take care,
2009-07-19 13:35:17
Fair Value
Well done, good analysis.
I've heard a number of analysts say that the fair value ratings are much too high compared to historical values, i.e. - they've been fudged like unemployment, CPI, inflation, and agency ratings. If this is the case, couldn't things collapse further than you see now?
It's a gloomy picture you paint with Europe and Asia, one I tend to agree with. If their spending falls off, that will have an equal effect on Apple, Microsoft, Intel, etc. as with our reduced spending on their goods.
U.S. Banking system? Well, if they can tap the current and future generations for $1 trillion in free money to lend out at %5-%20 how could they not do well? Honestly now, that has been theft, plain and simple, just like the CDS's and other speculation that WE are and will pay for.
The middle class. If the middle class fails (as it is) it won't be "too big to fail" but will drag down everything else with it. This is what is happening in sunny CA; privatized gains, socialized losses, spending and taxes out the wazoo, burdensome regulation, and thus the backbone of the state LEAVES. Gee...where did all our tax revenue go? Hmmmm....
Thanks again for the thorough analysis,
Eric
I've heard a number of analysts say that the fair value ratings are much too high compared to historical values, i.e. - they've been fudged like unemployment, CPI, inflation, and agency ratings. If this is the case, couldn't things collapse further than you see now?
It's a gloomy picture you paint with Europe and Asia, one I tend to agree with. If their spending falls off, that will have an equal effect on Apple, Microsoft, Intel, etc. as with our reduced spending on their goods.
U.S. Banking system? Well, if they can tap the current and future generations for $1 trillion in free money to lend out at %5-%20 how could they not do well? Honestly now, that has been theft, plain and simple, just like the CDS's and other speculation that WE are and will pay for.
The middle class. If the middle class fails (as it is) it won't be "too big to fail" but will drag down everything else with it. This is what is happening in sunny CA; privatized gains, socialized losses, spending and taxes out the wazoo, burdensome regulation, and thus the backbone of the state LEAVES. Gee...where did all our tax revenue go? Hmmmm....
Thanks again for the thorough analysis,
Eric
2009-07-19 17:41:14
My ten reasons- from an everyday schlub
- 401K's are so over: is anyone still having money deducted from their paychecks, to be handed over to strangers to "invest"? Not to mention the 16-20% unemployed
- I cannot imagine there are not net withdrawals from mutal funds( although I have no such data, certainly someone here has )
- the Goldman uproar is really catching on; the sentiment the market is rigged will scare some percentage away
- money "invested" in stock market is no longer perceived as savings, and no longer perceived as something that just goes up over time. What, you say there is risk? Shocking!
- CNBC is finally being evermore recognized for the cheerleading, misleading hockum it is
- even the average retail investor senses in his gut, things are not right, something wicked this way comes
- the everyday anecdotal evidence, the stuff people see with their eyes; friends or themselves unemplyed; retail space for lease signs everywhere; airports less crowded; restauranrts way less crowded; 50-7-% sale signs everywhere, on everythng;; etc. The ignorant and apathic crowd are being slapped upide the head, ostrich folk coming up for a look see.
- backlash on cap and trade; health care fiasco- Joe average is saying to congress, " Stop, just Stop"
- Ok ,l guess i didn't have 10
- I cannot imagine there are not net withdrawals from mutal funds( although I have no such data, certainly someone here has )
- the Goldman uproar is really catching on; the sentiment the market is rigged will scare some percentage away
- money "invested" in stock market is no longer perceived as savings, and no longer perceived as something that just goes up over time. What, you say there is risk? Shocking!
- CNBC is finally being evermore recognized for the cheerleading, misleading hockum it is
- even the average retail investor senses in his gut, things are not right, something wicked this way comes
- the everyday anecdotal evidence, the stuff people see with their eyes; friends or themselves unemplyed; retail space for lease signs everywhere; airports less crowded; restauranrts way less crowded; 50-7-% sale signs everywhere, on everythng;; etc. The ignorant and apathic crowd are being slapped upide the head, ostrich folk coming up for a look see.
- backlash on cap and trade; health care fiasco- Joe average is saying to congress, " Stop, just Stop"
- Ok ,l guess i didn't have 10
2009-07-19 17:43:21
My ten reasons- from an everyday schlub
Good lord, please excuse all the typo's- sheesh.
2009-07-20 11:13:10
Wow - this is really great
An article in this week's Economist, concerning the indigenous peoples of the Arctic, contains this interesting map of petroleum resources (note the one-hundred percent cohort)
http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displayStory.cfm?story_id=14065433
http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displayStory.cfm?story_id=14065433
2009-07-21 09:58:58
general views on Asia, Europe, emerging markets & how to play them
I certainly look forward to that, James. Yesterday I've just got a report/discussion about the possible breakup of the Eurozone and subsequent euro collapse. It was a 21-page report. I think it will be very interesting if you have a look at it and also give your takes.
I'd like to send you the file. What e-mail address should I send it to, if you will?
I'd like to send you the file. What e-mail address should I send it to, if you will?
2009-07-21 10:55:42
general views on Asia, Europe, emerging markets & how to play them
Hi Roger,
Please try james@minyanville.com.
Thanks.
Please try james@minyanville.com.
Thanks.
2009-08-01 07:45:13
general views on Asia, Europe, emerging markets & how to play them
Hello Roger,
I am interested in the report that you mentioned. Is it possible for you to email the same to me.
mustafa.amjed@gmail.com
Thanks
Mustafa
I am interested in the report that you mentioned. Is it possible for you to email the same to me.
mustafa.amjed@gmail.com
Thanks
Mustafa
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