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Random Thoughts: Unleash the Hounds!


Buckle up for a fresh five.

Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Salvation Lies Within.

Minyans, Start Your Engines! - 9:06 am

Following yet another Sunday assimilation--which, thankfully, ushered me away from the second half of the Saints-Raiders game--we power up our weekly strut to find the world wearing a brave face.

We've seen this movie before, my friends, so let's check our assumptions and the confetti (dollar bills) at the front door as we roll up our sleeves and get ready for fresh five-session set.

Some top-line musings in no particular order:

  • I pulled up a monthly chart of the S&P for the last 39.5 years (my lifetime). While a bounce certainly makes sense, "from where we came" also warrants attention.

  • Hoofy no doubt believes that innovation and production warrant the sizable gains.

  • Boo will argue that the derivative machination and debt dependency has never before been since in the history of mankind.

  • Given my cash hoarding for the better part of this year, I began putting money to work last week for a counter-trend upside trade. I entered Friday with two legs in my metaphorical bull costume (50% upside conviction), added an arm into the abyss (75% conviction) and humbly slipped that appendage out after catching a 70 handle rally in the S&P. I enter today with both legs in the bull costume, the positions to prove it and the intention of "trading around that risk" as a function of price.

  • As contra-hour began on Friday (in and around S&P 840), we offered on the Buzz "Take this with a grain of salt and a shake of pepper but nobody--not one person I speak with--wants to own 'em into the close. Well, I do, and I know thy self. I mean "other people," for what it's worth."

  • I've certainly had my fair share of mea culpas of late--and the reaction to news today, earnings this week and the ability to absorb the first, inevitable probe lower this morning will tell the tale--but I'll ask Minyans to see all sides (the bull case, the bear case and the unknowns) as we together edge ahead.

  • Intel (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JP Morgan (JPM), Coca Cola (KO), eBay (EBAY) and Wells Fargo (WFC) report earnings this week.

  • While nobody is expecting good news-and fundamentals pale in comparison to structural and psychological metrics-I'll remind ye faithful that field position matters.

  • Good news that's not great is sold in overbought markets while bad news that's not horrific are typically bought in oversold tapes.

  • When margin calls hit the corner office--Aubrey McClendon of Chesapeake Energy (CHK) was forced to sell 31.5 million shares last week--you gotta wonder if we're getting close to the end of the forced selling. Friday's "better" market close may be indicative of that--or, perhaps, it was ALL the Invisible Hand--but it demands attention as we together find our way.

  • One of the best tidbits of advice I ever got? Always look someone in the eye when you shake their hand. Oh, trading advice? Approach each day as if it's an entirely new P&L. Trying to make up for lost trades is like trying to make up for lost time. It not only keeps your keppe in the past, it keeps you from identifying better times ahead.

And finally, a few thoughts from the heart and soul of MVHQ:

  • Thank You Thank You Thank You. Minyanville screamed past 1,000,000 new Minyans and 10,000,000 page views in September. We thank you for your trust and we won't let you down.

  • T-minus 53 Days Until Festivus! I often say that you can call me a bad trader or a chubby pooh but never say we don't know how to throw a party! This one is for the Ruby Peck Foundation on December 4th and we've got all the bases covered in terms of human capital, kickin' tunes and fantastic chow. Come meet your community--it's really that special.

  • Over a quarter million kids are learning to earn, save, spend and give in Minyanland and we want your Mini-Minyans, it's completely COPA compliant (read: SAFE) and it's never too early to learn the basic building blocks of business decisions. Heck, if that new kid Paulson tapped can play, so can your children!

Good luck Minyans and think positive--profitability begins within.


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